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Post by thinwhiteduke on Oct 29, 2020 13:23:57 GMT
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Post by mrhell on Oct 29, 2020 13:31:49 GMT
Dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria
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Post by Richard Cromwell on Oct 29, 2020 13:46:57 GMT
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,902
Member is Online
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 29, 2020 14:22:40 GMT
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Post by bigfatron on Oct 29, 2020 17:42:24 GMT
www.270towin.com/maps/4z43PBiden 328: Trump 210 Trump wins Florida, Texas, Ohio Biden wins the rust belt, Georgia, N Carolina, Arizona, Iowa and Pennsylvania + Nebraska 2
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 30, 2020 23:16:46 GMT
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279 
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Post by Izzyeviel on Oct 31, 2020 0:31:02 GMT
 I think the polls are wrong so it'll be something like this or a narrow Trump win again. something within a 150ev margin of error ( i don't actually think he'll win Texas or Florida, but I thought i'd put them down to be different. After all, on a very good night they could flop his way) Edit: I missed NE2. It should be Blue. Biden 413, Trump 125 |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Oct 31, 2020 0:36:52 GMT
The first to predict a 400 EC victory for Biden - and I thought my map was bullish!
To win all those states is not impossible... However, it would require not only a solid national margin, but also one hell of a run of luck for Biden.
You probably want to change your map to add NE-2 as Biden as well. Even if he loses the EC, he'll almost certainly win there.
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Oct 31, 2020 0:43:16 GMT
I think the polls are wrong so it'll be something like this or a narrow Trump win again. something within a 150ev margin of error ( i don't actually think he'll win Texas or Florida, but I thought i'd put them down to be different. After all, on a very good night they could flop his way) Edit: I missed NE2. It should be Blue. Biden 413, Trump 125 Curiously enough, Biden 413-125 is the most common result out of the 25,000 simulations 270toWin run daily. www.270towin.com/2020-simulation/battleground-270 |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 31, 2020 0:48:31 GMT
I think the polls are wrong so it'll be something like this or a narrow Trump win again. something within a 150ev margin of error ( i don't actually think he'll win Texas or Florida, but I thought i'd put them down to be different. After all, on a very good night they could flop his way) Edit: I missed NE2. It should be Blue. Biden 413, Trump 125 You weren't tempted to give Indiana, Alaska, Montana and Missouri to Biden as well  |
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
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Post by Izzyeviel on Oct 31, 2020 2:07:22 GMT
I think the polls are wrong so it'll be something like this or a narrow Trump win again. something within a 150ev margin of error ( i don't actually think he'll win Texas or Florida, but I thought i'd put them down to be different. After all, on a very good night they could flop his way) Edit: I missed NE2. It should be Blue. Biden 413, Trump 125 You weren't tempted to give Indiana, Alaska, Montana and Missouri to Biden as well I did think about it. I do think its going to be a weird result, I have no idea in whose favour. |
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Post by relique on Oct 31, 2020 15:05:30 GMT
I'm afraid that's not really original.
The senate map with a couple of surprises:
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Post by No Offence Alan on Oct 31, 2020 16:15:53 GMT
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Post by dizz on Oct 31, 2020 16:58:06 GMT
www.270towin.com/maps/4z43PCloser - hope the pasting works. It didn't - Biden 290, Trump 245. Biden to gain: Arizona Pennsylvania Wisconsin Michigan 1 in Nebraska
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Post by johnloony on Oct 31, 2020 20:34:24 GMT
The difference between What I am cautiously predicting and What I hope will happen, just in case posting it here somehow influences the voters and makes it happen www.yapms.com/app/?m=4chl |
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Post by froome on Oct 31, 2020 20:54:22 GMT
The difference between What I am cautiously predicting and What I hope will happen, just in case posting it here somehow influences the voters and makes it happen
www.yapms.com/app/?m=4chl50 million American voters suddenly log into the Vote-2012 forum... |
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 31, 2020 23:01:04 GMT
Will probably post my final prediction tomorrow.
By the way, I note that several of you have gone for 306-232. Were you all aware that that is the exact opposite of the result in 2016, or was it just a coincidence?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2020 0:52:03 GMT
The difference between What I am cautiously predicting and What I hope will happen, just in case posting it here somehow influences the voters and makes it happen www.yapms.com/app/?m=4chlI suppose, with the exception of Mississippi, that map is right at the extreme end of possibility |
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Nov 1, 2020 18:45:09 GMT
Here is my prediction:
Pennsylvania is closer than MI or WI, but not close as NC, GA, FL or AZ. Texas is also close, but Trump holds on. I was never fully convinced that Iowa would flip if Ohio (which will be very tight) didn't, so have kept it in the red column.
As for Nebraska and Maine, Biden should take NE-02 even if he loses the election while I think the use of AV Ranked Choice Voting gives him the edge in ME-02.
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Post by michaelarden on Nov 1, 2020 19:00:33 GMT
Swap AZ for PA and you get 269:269... |
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