nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
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Post by nelson on Oct 28, 2020 22:40:07 GMT
Post your predictions here (to avoid clogging up the election threads).  (using the reverse colours from Dave Leip's Talk Elections forum) Biden wins 396-142. Texas is a pure toss-up but more fun to have it flipping and I think NE-01 might be a surprise win for Biden (and since he has the momentum I think there'll be one). No idea about AK (and neither does anyone else imo), but keeping it in the R column since I doubt there'll be more than one big surprise. |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850 
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Post by johng on Oct 28, 2020 23:29:41 GMT
There are a few tough really races to call. I feel we are about here at the moment though.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Oct 28, 2020 23:38:28 GMT
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cj
Socialist
These fragments I have shored against my ruins
Posts: 3,285
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Post by cj on Oct 28, 2020 23:47:00 GMT
Narrow Trump win on declaration of votes counted that were cast on election day, flurry of spin/misinformation that that is the vote, legal challenges to postal ballots lodged everywhere it is possible to lodge a suite, Russia offers to send observers, political and civil instability, Dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria, the party time that some have been waiting and hoping for*
*Contents may settle
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 29, 2020 6:53:31 GMT
Post your predictions here (to avoid clogging up the election threads). (using the reverse colours from Dave Leip's Talk Elections forum) Biden wins 396-142. Texas is a pure toss-up but more fun to have it flipping and I think NE-01 might be a surprise win for Biden (and since he has the momentum I think there'll be one). No idea about AK (and neither does anyone else imo), but keeping it in the R column since I doubt there'll be more than one big surprise. Ne1 is on the outer edges of possibility but would presumably flip after KS and MO (and their swing be correlated, with KS especially). Otherwise, same map. Ia and Oh being a total crapshoot though (feeling oddly confident about Texas). |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 29, 2020 7:08:10 GMT
I don't think this is all that likely actually but such an outcome would be both a lot of fun and very lucrative for me personally  |
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Post by London Lad on Oct 29, 2020 8:31:59 GMT
I don't think this is all that likely actually but such an outcome would be both a lot of fun and very lucrative for me personally Be a lot of fun for Amy Coney Barrett as well.. |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Oct 29, 2020 8:49:54 GMT
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Post by No Offence Alan on Oct 29, 2020 8:51:20 GMT
I don't think this is all that likely actually but such an outcome would be both a lot of fun and very lucrative for me personally Another route (and I think a more plausible one) to a tie is, from your chart, flip PA and MI and Omaha to Trump, and flip AZ, GA and WI to Biden. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 29, 2020 9:57:44 GMT
I don't think this is all that likely actually but such an outcome would be both a lot of fun and very lucrative for me personally Another route (and I think a more plausible one) to a tie is, from your chart, flip PA and MI and Omaha to Trump, and flip AZ, GA and WI to Biden. There's a surpisingly large number of different plausible combinations which produce a tie, which is why I thought 80/1 was a worthwhile bet |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
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Post by iain on Oct 29, 2020 10:39:09 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 29, 2020 10:44:20 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2020 11:31:11 GMT
The real dividing line in politics is whether you make predictions using 270 To Win or YApms
YApms (Yet Another political map simulator) is better at showing split Electoral Votes in Maine and Nebraska.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Oct 29, 2020 12:08:19 GMT
The real dividing line in politics is whether you make predictions using 270 To Win or YApms YApms (Yet Another political map simulator) is better at showing split Electoral Votes in Maine and Nebraska.
Disagree. YApms is much less clear overall. 270 is larger and more aesthetically attractive. I don't want to click on a link either, I want to see it clearly on the forum.
I also don't like how it displays Maine. A few people have put Maine's at-large and 1st CD as Democrat, but the map looks like Maine is red due to the 2nd CD..
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2020 12:11:58 GMT
I don't think this is all that likely actually but such an outcome would be both a lot of fun and very lucrative for me personally I can definitely see that. The Republicans' suburban vote has held up better in WI than most other states so NE-02 going blue before WI is certainly possible. The biggest stumbling block is that I find it hard to see Trump keeping ME-02 |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2020 12:17:37 GMT
 Was tempted to leave Florida grey and call it a tie |
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Post by thirdchill on Oct 29, 2020 12:59:07 GMT
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 29, 2020 13:02:58 GMT
Think this will be near the mark.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
Member is Online
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Post by Chris from Brum on Oct 29, 2020 13:12:29 GMT
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Oct 29, 2020 13:20:05 GMT
Are you sure you want to put NC and Georgia as safe Biden, but then have Minnesota and Nevada just lean Biden? Seems very unlikely to me. |
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