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Post by carolus on Oct 27, 2024 21:20:01 GMT
Getting very close to the end, and just a handful of seats where there's any possible doubt left: 8. (10/13): TS-LKD 50.55, NS 49.45 10. (11/13): TS-LKD 51.25, LLRA 48.75 15. (11/12): TS-LKD 50.32, NA 49.68 71. (51/52): TS-LKD 50.80, LP 49.20 TSLKD have got ahead in a handful more seats, but not enough (and from the wrong parties) to make a difference. It looks like game on for LSDP/DSVL/LVZS, and goodbye to Laisves (which may well be a blessing in the long run for liberal-inclined voters).
There are a few constituencies where late arriving postal votes could make a difference (I haven't checked everywhere), for example 14. where LiT are 32 votes ahead of TS-LKD.
TS-LKD have finished ahead in 10, 15, 71. 8 is extremely close, NS are back ahead by 74 votes, with one polling station left to declare. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 28, 2024 5:24:49 GMT
  So LSDP ended formidable 10% ahead of its traditional archEnemy TS-LKD and while the latter was beaten by the former 13 times, vice versa it happened only twice. (But by its ally DSVL thrice...) |
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Oct 28, 2024 7:15:22 GMT
Probably one of the only European counties where I’m actively rooting for the left. Mostly because of the TS-LKD’s pretty sharp move to the centre since the nepo baby came in.
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Post by carolus on Oct 28, 2024 8:05:37 GMT
Probably one of the only European counties where I’m actively rooting for the left. Mostly because of the TS-LKD’s pretty sharp move to the centre since the nepo baby came in. Unsurprisingly, Landsbergis has resigned as leader of TS-LKD. Slightly more surprisingly he has announced that he is giving up his position on the list, and so will not be returning to the Seimas. |
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Post by carolus on Oct 28, 2024 8:17:50 GMT
Despite LSDP/DSVL/LVŽS announcing their electoral "pact" for the second round, it's still possible that there'll be a different government. If there's one thing you can rely on in Lithuanian politics it's that bitter personal disagreements trump everything, and Skvernelis has mentioned a few times that he would prefer to work with Liberalų Sajūdis than with LVŽS. I'm not sure how likely that is to actually happen, but it's at least a possibility, and would have the numbers.
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Oct 28, 2024 8:57:32 GMT
Probably one of the only European counties where I’m actively rooting for the left. Mostly because of the TS-LKD’s pretty sharp move to the centre since the nepo baby came in. Unsurprisingly, Landsbergis has resigned as leader of TS-LKD. Slightly more surprisingly he has announced that he is giving up his position on the list, and so will not be returning to the Seimas. I still don’t understand why he took the party in that liberal to almost centrist direction. Lithuania has plenty of liberal parties, but not a lot of non-populist conservative parties… |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 28, 2024 10:03:41 GMT
Unsurprisingly, Landsbergis has resigned as leader of TS-LKD. Slightly more surprisingly he has announced that he is giving up his position on the list, and so will not be returning to the Seimas. I still don’t understand why he took the party in that liberal to almost centrist direction. Lithuania has plenty of liberal parties, but not a lot of non-populist conservative parties… Well, that has been - although is changing - quite normal in EastEurope:  |
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Post by carolus on Oct 30, 2024 22:39:31 GMT
Blinkevičiūtė, the leader of the LSDP (who have just won 52 seats) has announced that she does not want to be Prime Minister...
I think it is fair to say that this not gone down especially well.
She's cited age and a health as the reasons, and also won't be taking up her seat in the Seimas. A cynic would note that she remains young and healthy enough to continue as an MEP.
It had been rumoured both before and after the election that she wasn't very enthusiastic about the job, and she also backed out of running for the presidency earlier this year - instead LSDP ended up endorsing the incumbent, Nausėda (Independent).
A couple of days ago Karbauskis (leader of LVŽS) had been talking about how important it was that Blinkevičiūtė became PM, and suggesting they might walk away from the coalition if she wasn't.
It looks as if Gintautas Paluckas, who was Blinkevičiūtė's predecessor as leader of the LSDP (and Butkevičius' [former LSDP PM now in DSVL] successor...) will be LSDP's new candidate for PM. Of course, Paluckas' election as party leader in 2017 was swiftly followed by LSDP's withdrawal from the then-coalition with LVŽS (lead at the time by Karbauskis, under PM Skvernelis [former LVŽS PM now leader of DSVL] {formerly formerly LSDP cabinet minister under Butkevičius}). This triggered a major split in LSDP, with the majority of MPs remaining in coalition and forming the erstwhile LSDDP which then got obliterated in the 2020 election, with the remnants teaming up with the remnants of Darbo Partija (Labour Party) as the Regions Party in 2024 (also obliterated).
So I'm sure they'll all get along fabulously.
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Post by markgoodair on Oct 30, 2024 22:53:55 GMT
Blinkevičiūtė, the leader of the LSDP (who have just won 52 seats) has announced that she does not want to be Prime Minister... I think it is fair to say that this not gone down especially well. She's cited age and a health as the reasons, and also won't be taking up her seat in the Seimas. A cynic would note that she remains young and healthy enough to continue as an MEP. It had been rumoured both before and after the election that she wasn't very enthusiastic about the job, and she also backed out of running for the presidency earlier this year - instead LSDP ended up endorsing the incumbent, Nausėda (Independent). A couple of days ago Karbauskis (leader of LVŽS) had been talking about how important it was that Blinkevičiūtė became PM, and suggesting they might walk away from the coalition if she wasn't. It looks as if Gintautas Paluckas, who was Blinkevičiūtė's predecessor as leader of the LSDP (and Butkevičius' [former LSDP PM now in DSVL] successor...) will be LSDP's new candidate for PM. Of course, Paluckas' election as party leader in 2017 was swiftly followed by LSDP's withdrawal from the then-coalition with LVŽS (lead at the time by Karbauskis, under PM Skvernelis [former LVŽS PM now leader of DSVL] {formerly formerly LSDP cabinet minister under Butkevičius}). This triggered a major split in LSDP, with the majority of MPs remaining in coalition and forming the erstwhile LSDDP which then got obliterated in the 2020 election, with the remnants teaming up with the remnants of Darbo Partija (Labour Party) as the Regions Party in 2024 (also obliterated). So I'm sure they'll all get along fabulously. Does Comrade Putin have something over her that made her change her mind? |
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Post by carolus on Nov 8, 2024 22:52:13 GMT
LVZS have been kicked out of coalition talks - sounds like Skvernelis has won (as you might expect from their relative electoral results). Nemuno Ausra are their replacement in the coalition. So much for LSDP's pre-election red lines.
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