Lithuanian elections

[Georg Ebner]

ManoBalsas.lt - which provides a VotingCompass - clustered the parties in that naive US-way of putting 1 person onto 2 axes (economy left-right; religion/culture/ethics top [leftliberal] - bottom [cons./authoritarian]):


Red = added by me.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Oct 23, 2020 15:20:19 GMT Georg Ebner said:

ManoBalsas.lt - which provides a VotingCompass - clustered the parties in that naive US-way of putting 1 person onto 2 axes (economy left-right; religion/culture/ethics top [leftliberal] - bottom [cons./authoritarian]):


Red = added by me.

OMG, Its a load of virus's, runs and hides.

[Georg Ebner]

Scientists around this project mentioned a sharp recent movement of the SocialDemocrats (=exCommunists).
Not, what You would expect from EPP-(ex)"ChristDemocrats", but they are obviously closer to Scandinavian "Conservatives" (i.e. being the party of the _{Urb-snobs).
Red clouds mean a very strong focus on these positions.}

[Georg Ebner]

Last time LVZS swept the FPTP-seats in the second round; and this time it seems to be similar (despite the strong lead of the urban "ChristDemocrats"/"Conservatives" in round I):

17 LVZS
08 LSDP
05 TS-LKD

Of course, these are mostly rural seats.
Kaunas will probably be decisive.

[Georg Ebner]

FrontRunner in 44 of 68 FPTP-seats:

18 LVZS
08 LSDP
06 TS-LKD
03 LRLS (RightLiberals)
03 LSDDP (SocialDem.)
02 LLRA (Poles)
01 LZP (Greens)
01 DP (LabourP.)
01 LP (LeftLiberals)
01 PLT (Nationalists/Liberals)

[Georg Ebner]

FrontRunners in 64/68 seats:

19 LVZS
18 TS-LKD
07 LSDP
05 LRLS
03 LP
03 LSDDP
02 LLRA
01 PLT
01 LZP
01 DP
04 Ind.

So once more many voted tactically against the "Conservatives".

[Georg Ebner]

Contenders:FrontRunners:

54:26 TS-LKD
32:16 LVZS
12:07 LSDP
09:06 LRLS
06:04 Ind.
04:03 LSDDP
12:02 LP
02:01 LLRA
02:01 DP
01:01 PLT
01:01 LZP
01:00 CPT

The leftliberal LP underperforming strongly, what helped the (pseudo)Conservatives, as the latter were in all 12 races their opponents. What means, that the "Cons." did not well outside the cities.

[Georg Ebner]

With 1630/1914 (=85%) precincts counted the distribution of the 141 seats looks like this:

50 TS-LKD
32 LVZS
15 LSDP
12 LRLS
10 LP
10 DP
04 Ind.
03 LSDDP
03 LLRA-KSS
01 LZP
01 PLT

[Georg Ebner]

So not more than narrow 72/141 for the "right" (=urban liberals) and quite strong 61 MPs for those parties, who are usually defined as "left" there (LVZS+LSDP+DP+LSDDP+LZP).

[Georg Ebner]

With 1800/1914 done the leads are mostly settled. But whoever is looking for a close race should have a look at the diaspora-seat (nr.71), which is moving from the LeftLiberals to the "Conservatives" and vice versa.

[carolus]

Oct 25, 2020 21:16:05 GMT Georg Ebner said:

With 1800/1914 done the leads are mostly settled. But whoever is looking for a close race should have a look at the diaspora-seat (nr.71), which is moving from the LeftLiberals to the "Conservatives" and vice versa.

However, one of the two missions that hasn't yet declared in seat 71 is the UK. In the first round the UK made up 1/3 of the total electorate for this seat, and in the first round went 37-24 for LP. So 71 may end up not-so-close after all.

[carolus]

Oct 25, 2020 21:41:42 GMT carolus said:

Oct 25, 2020 21:16:05 GMT Georg Ebner said:

With 1800/1914 done the leads are mostly settled. But whoever is looking for a close race should have a look at the diaspora-seat (nr.71), which is moving from the LeftLiberals to the "Conservatives" and vice versa.

However, one of the two missions that hasn't yet declared in seat 71 is the UK. In the first round the UK made up 1/3 of the total electorate for this seat, and in the first round went 37-24 for LP. So 71 may end up not-so-close after all.

In fact, closer still is Utenos (51), where with all precincts reporting, the vote is tied. This is the seat where the leader of LSDP is standing (although he also has a list seat).

[carolus]

Oct 25, 2020 21:41:42 GMT carolus said:

Oct 25, 2020 21:16:05 GMT Georg Ebner said:

With 1800/1914 done the leads are mostly settled. But whoever is looking for a close race should have a look at the diaspora-seat (nr.71), which is moving from the LeftLiberals to the "Conservatives" and vice versa.

However, one of the two missions that hasn't yet declared in seat 71 is the UK. In the first round the UK made up 1/3 of the total electorate for this seat, and in the first round went 37-24 for LP. So 71 may end up not-so-close after all.

UK has now declared, which has shifted the seat to 54-46 for LP. The total votes in the final mission will be less than the gap, so safe to call it for LP.

[carolus]

It seems that TS-LKD have already agreed to form a coalition with LRLS and LP. They'll have either 73 or 74/141 seats, depending on what happens in the tied constituency (Utenos, 51). This is pretty slim, especially given the tendency of lithuanian parties to split, but I'm not sure if there's an obvious fourth coalition member.

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 25, 2020 22:57:12 GMT carolus said:

It seems that TS-LKD have already agreed to form a coalition with LRLS and LP. They'll have either 73 or 74/141 seats, depending on what happens in the tied constituency (Utenos, 51). This is pretty slim, especially given the tendency of lithuanian parties to split, but I'm not sure if there's an obvious fourth coalition member.

Yes, these 3 parties are labelled "the Right" there. But look, how e.g. support for HomoPartnership is (the flying stork is the LVZS-emblem):

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 25, 2020 22:57:12 GMT carolus said:

It seems that TS-LKD have already agreed to form a coalition with LRLS and LP. They'll have either 73 or 74/141 seats, depending on what happens in the tied constituency (Utenos, 51). This is pretty slim, especially given the tendency of lithuanian parties to split, but I'm not sure if there's an obvious fourth coalition member.

3 LLRA-KSS (the Poles) come to my mind and of course 1 PLT. And the 4 Independents.

[Georg Ebner]

Members of Parliament:

49 TS-LKD (or 50)
32 LVZS
13 LSDP (or 14)
13 LRLS
11 LP
04 Independents
03 LSDDP
03 LLRA-KSS
01 PLT
01 LZP
01 DP

[Georg Ebner]

[Georg Ebner]

Participation:


Winner:

[Georg Ebner]

+ ColourKey (by me):