Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 3, 2024 18:37:27 GMT
Presidential election, round I vs. II. Votes:  % (candidateVotes measured at all eligible votes): - rajon minus Lithuania:  - rajon divided by nation:  % (candidateVotes measured at only the sum of valid votes):   |
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Post by markgoodair on Oct 13, 2024 17:06:13 GMT
Today is General Election Day in Lithuania .
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 13, 2024 18:08:29 GMT
The nationalists with 17% second.
The last European parliament without this kind of parties (LVZS was more cons.) has fallen...
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,796
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 14, 2024 20:48:11 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,796
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 14, 2024 21:28:47 GMT
Obviously not my own work:   |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,796
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 15, 2024 12:41:50 GMT
How one (of several) elec.compasses positioned the parties:  |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,796
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 17, 2024 18:19:43 GMT
Apparently noBody here cares on this election, but with postalVotes counted tomorrow (?) LVZS is probably going to fall below the decisive 7%-hurdle for coalitions.
What could either deliver LSDP&DSVL a seatMajority - but they would have to win not less than ~40/63 runOffs; or make coalitioning very difficult: Having to choose between "left" (economically) NA or the "right" Liberals.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 17, 2024 18:32:51 GMT
Apparently noBody here cares on this election, but with postalVotes counted tomorrow (?) LVZS is probably going to fall below the decisive 7%-hurdle for coalitions. What could either deliver LSDP&DSVL a seatMajority - but they would have to win not less than ~40/63 runOffs; or make coalitioning very difficult: Having to choose between "left" (economically) NA or the "right" Liberals. Had a look: LSDP&DVSL came into 45 runOffs (in 26 on 1st place), so they'd have to win basically all. Fairly many, where they (or splinter LRP) place both conTestants. |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,796
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 20, 2024 13:46:00 GMT
Apparently noBody here cares on this election, but with postalVotes counted tomorrow (?) LVZS is probably going to fall below the decisive 7%-hurdle for coalitions. What could either deliver LSDP&DSVL a seatMajority - but they would have to win not less than ~40/63 runOffs; or make coalitioning very difficult: Having to choose between "left" (economically) NA or the "right" Liberals. Not sure, all postal Votes are counted, but many/most are and LVZS seems to have performed there better than in the past, ending in toto at 7.02% and thus remaining in parliament! |
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Post by carolus on Oct 21, 2024 0:19:02 GMT
Apparently noBody here cares on this election, but with postalVotes counted tomorrow (?) LVZS is probably going to fall below the decisive 7%-hurdle for coalitions. What could either deliver LSDP&DSVL a seatMajority - but they would have to win not less than ~40/63 runOffs; or make coalitioning very difficult: Having to choose between "left" (economically) NA or the "right" Liberals. Had a look: LSDP&DVSL came into 45 runOffs (in 26 on 1st place), so they'd have to win basically all. Fairly many, where they (or splinter LRP) place both conTestants. There seems to be an agreement between all three of LSDP, DSVL, and LVZS for the second round, and coalition afterwards. Though given the bad blood between DSVL and LVZS, I wonder how much they'll enjoy working together long term. I think they can jointly get at most 44 elected in the second round, which would get them to a combined 78. If they won just their first places, then they get to 64.
In practice of course it's hard to see that they would win all of them, but I wouldn't like to try and guess where exactly they end up, or how various other parties' votes will transfer (god only knows where NA's voters will go). Both LSDP and TS-LKD said before the election that they won't work with NA, and assuming it holds it leaves the only plausible coalition as LSDP/DSVL/LVZS/LS (if the first three don't reach a majority on their own). I struggle to see a way for TS-LKD to stay in power, though they could plausibly be largest party - they'd need to either break their word on NA (which probably loses them LS), or somehow break off one of DSVL or LVZS (not very plausible).
Despite having an electoral system that obviously favours large parties, the Lithuanian parties certainly aren't afraid to split - both the liberals (LS & Laisves) and the... whatever they are (LVZS & DSVL) would have done substantially better had they remained united.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,796
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 27, 2024 19:05:27 GMT
In the runOff most is counted, but the numbers got released 5 minutes ago.
Look very promising for LSDP.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 27, 2024 19:10:57 GMT
Presently, of 141 seats:
51 LSDP
22 TS-LKD
21 NS
14 DSVL
10 [LR]LS (lib.)
09 LVZS (argrarian-cons.)
05 LLRA-KSS (Poles; cons.)
01 NS (souverainists)
01 LRP (exLSDP)
01 LT (liberal ("libertarian"))
06 ?
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 27, 2024 19:14:32 GMT
51 LSDP
14 DSVL
09 LVZS
74/141
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 27, 2024 19:24:09 GMT
Presently LSDP has won 31 of 37 runOffs - certainly (similar to Labour) due to voters being upset by the incumbent government.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 27, 2024 19:25:31 GMT
Presently LSDP has won 31 of 37 runOffs - certainly (similar to Labour) due to voters being upset by the incumbent government. Fittingly "The Conservatives" only 4 of 33 and their liberal ally 2 of 9. |
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Post by carolus on Oct 27, 2024 19:34:57 GMT
But it does rather look as if the writing is on the wall.
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Post by carolus on Oct 27, 2024 20:25:46 GMT
Getting very close to the end, and just a handful of seats where there's any possible doubt left: 8. (10/13): TS-LKD 50.55, NS 49.45 10. (11/13): TS-LKD 51.25, LLRA 48.75 15. (11/12): TS-LKD 50.32, NA 49.68 71. (51/52): TS-LKD 50.80, LP 49.20 TSLKD have got ahead in a handful more seats, but not enough (and from the wrong parties) to make a difference. It looks like game on for LSDP/DSVL/LVZS, and goodbye to Laisves (which may well be a blessing in the long run for liberal-inclined voters).
There are a few constituencies where late arriving postal votes could make a difference (I haven't checked everywhere), for example 14. where LiT are 32 votes ahead of TS-LKD.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 27, 2024 20:51:06 GMT
Getting very close to the end, and just a handful of seats where there's any possible doubt left: 8. (10/13): TS-LKD 50.55, NS 49.45 10. (11/13): TS-LKD 51.25, LLRA 48.75 15. (11/12): TS-LKD 50.32, NA 49.68 71. (51/52): TS-LKD 50.80, LP 49.20 TSLKD have got ahead in a handful more seats, but not enough (and from the wrong parties) to make a difference. It looks like game on for LSDP/DSVL/LVZS, and goodbye to Laisves (which may well be a blessing in the long run for liberal-inclined voters).
There are a few constituencies where late arriving postal votes could make a difference (I haven't checked everywhere), for example 14. where LiT are 32 votes ahead of TS-LKD.
I tried to find the Laisves-seat on the map - until remembering, that they had ended in the diaspora ahead... Guess, this MP is too detached to bring back the party? |
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Post by carolus on Oct 27, 2024 21:04:03 GMT
Getting very close to the end, and just a handful of seats where there's any possible doubt left: 8. (10/13): TS-LKD 50.55, NS 49.45 10. (11/13): TS-LKD 51.25, LLRA 48.75 15. (11/12): TS-LKD 50.32, NA 49.68 71. (51/52): TS-LKD 50.80, LP 49.20 TSLKD have got ahead in a handful more seats, but not enough (and from the wrong parties) to make a difference. It looks like game on for LSDP/DSVL/LVZS, and goodbye to Laisves (which may well be a blessing in the long run for liberal-inclined voters).
There are a few constituencies where late arriving postal votes could make a difference (I haven't checked everywhere), for example 14. where LiT are 32 votes ahead of TS-LKD.
I tried to find the Laisves-seat on the map - until remembering, that they had ended in the diaspora ahead... Guess, this MP is too detached to bring back the party? In the end they've lost even that - final result TS-LKD 51.66, Laisves 48.34. They're out of the Seimas, though they still have one MEP (and a handful of councillors), so I suppose they might stick around for a bit.
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Post by carolus on Oct 27, 2024 21:14:00 GMT
One interesting thing I noticed is that former LSDP PM (2012-2016) Algirdas Butkevicius was (narrowly, by 57 votes) re-elected for DSVL in constituency 68. In 2020 he was elected for the Greens (actual Greens, not LVZS). I wonder how Blinkeviciute will feel to have two of her three predecessors looking over her shoulder from her coalition partner (DSVL's leader, Skvernelis, was PM 2016-2020)!
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