Lithuanian elections

[Georg Ebner]

ColourCode: What is labelled as "The Right" (and likely to govern) vs. "The Left":

[Georg Ebner]

[Georg Ebner]

54 RunOffs; 26won : 28lost TS-KLD:

26; 13:13 TS-KLD vs. LVZS
12; 9:3 vs. LP
06; 1:5 LRLS
03; 0:3 Ind.
02; 2:0 LSDP
02; 0:2 LSDDP
02; 1:1 LLRA
01; 0:1 PLT


32; 16:16 LVZS:

26; 13:13 TS-KLD
03; 2:1 LSDP
01; 1:0 DP
01; 0:1 LZP
01; 0:1 Ind.


12; 5:7 LSDP:

03; 1:2 LVZS
03; 1:2 LRLS
02; 0:2 TS-KLD
02; 1:1 LSDDP
02; 2:0 Ind.


12; 3:9 LP:

12; 3:9 TS-KLD


9; 7:2 LRLS:

6; 5:1 TS-KLD
3; 2:1 LSDP


6; 4:2 Ind.:

3; 3:0 TS-KLD
2; 0:2 Ind.
1; 1:0 LVZS


4; 3:1 LSDDP:

2: 2:0 Ts-KLD
2; 1:1 LSDP


2; 1:1 LLRA-KSS:

2; 1:1 TS-KLD


2; 1:1 DP:

1; 0:1 LVZS
1; 1:0 CP-T

1; 1:0 PLT:

1; 1:0 Ts-KLD


1; 1:0 LZP:

1; 1:0 LVZS


1; 0:1 CP-T:

1; 0:1 DP

[Georg Ebner]

Against its prospective CoalitionPartners TS-KLD trumped LP and was often defeated by LRLS.

[carolus]

Oct 26, 2020 13:30:48 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Against its prospective CoalitionPartners TS-KLD trumped LP and was often defeated by LRLS.

I imagine this will be pretty disappointing for LP - they lost all nine of the seats they were contesting in Vilnius to TS. Given they trailed by reasonable amounts in the first round, this may not be a surprise, but for a party so heavily based around Vilnius to fail to win a single seat there will probably be a blow.

Incidentally, you mentioned before LLRA - I suspect that they're unlikely to be much use to the coalition, as socially conservative and enthusiastic partners of LVZS last time around. More likely is that in the face of a fragmented opposition, even a minority government would be workable (as the previous govt managed for some time). If necessary, they might be able to pick up a handful of other votes on specific issues, perhaps even LSDP if needed.

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 26, 2020 15:03:18 GMT carolus said:

Oct 26, 2020 13:30:48 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Against its prospective CoalitionPartners TS-KLD trumped LP and was often defeated by LRLS.

I imagine this will be pretty disappointing for LP - they lost all nine of the seats they were contesting in Vilnius to TS. Given they trailed by reasonable amounts in the first round, this may not be a surprise, but for a party so heavily based around Vilnius to fail to win a single seat there will probably be a blow.

Incidentally, you mentioned before LLRA - I suspect that they're unlikely to be much use to the coalition, as socially conservative and enthusiastic partners of LVZS last time around. More likely is that in the face of a fragmented opposition, even a minority government would be workable (as the previous govt managed for some time). If necessary, they might be able to pick up a handful of other votes on specific issues, perhaps even LSDP if needed.

They joined the cabinet only 1 year ago, so i am not sure they were "enthusiastic partners of LVZS last time around". But they wouldn't cope very well with the 2 liberal parties, that's clear. The "ChristDemocrats"/"Conservatives" would have to function as aurea mediocritas.

[greenhert]

My analysis: alansgreenthoughts.blogspot.com/2020/10/on-lithuanian-parliamentary-election-of.html

[Georg Ebner]

A ReCount handed Utenos over to TS-KLD, meaning, that the LSDP-leader has lost his seat (but is on the party's list, of course).

The sole member of LZP ("GreenP."), ex-PrimeMinister ~Butkevicius (LSDP), won't join the "Greens" of LVZS, but LRLS - 1 more vote for the new government (presently).

[Georg Ebner]

Local elections will be held tomorrow.
Myself i will be quite absorbed by Carinthia, Estonia, Liechtenstein.

[Georg Ebner]

Mayor-races:


The exCommunists/SocialDemocrats are - due to their electoral system with just 17%! - the strongest party. A quite good - albeit not overwhelming - preLude for the general election next year.

[Georg Ebner]

[Georg Ebner]

Mayors:

The Lituanians are excited, that the Poles lost Vilnius-Land narrowly to LSDP (first time ever).

[Georg Ebner]

Mayors elected this time, grouped by
- alphaBet:

- inHabtitants (census 2021):

- regions:

Cities:

[Georg Ebner]

Mayors:

[Georg Ebner]

Mayors before ("vor") & after ("nach") the elections of 2015, 2019, 2023.
- OverView per parties:

- List, grouped by inHab. (C'21):

[carolus]

The first round of the presidential election has happened, and is currently counting - Nausėda (the incumbent) will win the first round by some distance and likely face Šimonytė (the prime minister) in the second round. With 1509/1895 counts reported, he is leading 46.49-15.96. Most of the remaining counts are from Vilnius and Kaunas, which are likely to favour Šimonytė, so the lead will probably come down a little more.
rezultatai.vrk.lt/?srcUrl=/rinkimai/1504/1/2070/rezultatai/lt/rezultataiPreRezultatai.html

There's also a referendum on modifying the constitution to permit dual nationality, which is going to fail (again) - it is currently 71.54% in favour, on a turnout (from currently counts) of 57.04%. But to pass it requires 50% of eligible voters in favour, not just those who turn out.
rezultatai.vrk.lt/?srcUrl=/rinkimai/1504/1/2104/rezultatai/lt/rezultataiRefSavivaldybese.html

[Georg Ebner]

Referendum on dual citizenship:
Participation:

Yes measured at only participants (valid&invalid):

Yes measured at all eligible voters (participants&absentees):

All 60 municipalities opted for Yes, but only 2 reached the required 50% for Yes of all eligible voters.

[Georg Ebner]

The pollingStations will close in 54 minutes - but the winner is anyWay clear.

[carolus]

With 1564/1895 counts reported, Nausėda is leading 78.11-20.34 over Šimonytė. Most of the remaining votes are from the cities, which may close the gap slightly, but Nausėda has clearly won re-election by a huge margin.

[Georg Ebner]

May 26, 2024 19:07:14 GMT carolus said:

With 1564/1895 counts reported, Nausėda is leading 78.11-20.34 over Šimonytė. Most of the remaining votes are from the cities, which may close the gap slightly, but Nausėda has clearly won re-election by a huge margin.

Those 1/4 for her is really the absolute minimum - and as she is the sitting PM it's apparent, how the parliamentary election will end...