thanks to
cogload for posting Peter Kellner's predictions,the full Sunday Times article which contains them is below:
Spoiler alert: Labour will win the general election. However, important uncertainties remain. Will the Conservatives be able to provide an effective opposition? Will Reform’s appeal surge or fade between now and Thursday? Will low turnout eat into Labour’s majority? Will the SNP still be Scotland’s top party?
Here are my predictions:
• Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats
• Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats
• Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats
• Reform UK: 13 per cent, 2 seats
• Green: 7 per cent, 2 seats
• SNP: 33 per cent in Scotland, 18 seats
• Other (including Northern Ireland): 23 seats
• Labour majority: 150
On these figures, Labour is on course for a landslide in terms of parliamentary seats without coming anywhere near a landslide on national vote share. Sir Keir Starmer will have a gold-plated mandate in the Commons. Whether it gleams so brightly to voters outside Westminster is another matter.
Any prediction is subject to error. These are my assumptions, and why each could be wrong.
1. The polls. Those showing Labour leads of 16-18 per cent are nearer the truth than those reporting leads of 23-25 per cent
The pollsters showing lower leads adjust their raw data, in particular to take account of the more than two million people who voted Conservative in 2019 but now say they don’t know how they’ll vote on Thursday. This adjustment brings into play today’s equivalent of the “shy Tories” who gave John Major his surprise victory in 1992.
Why it might be wrong: Perhaps those ex-Tory “don’t knows” won’t “return home”. Instead, they will vote Reform, or even Labour or Lib Dem, or simply register their protest by abstaining. In which case the larger leads will turn out to be right.
2. The Farage factor. We have passed peak Reform. Some Tory defectors tempted by Nigel Farage’s party will decide to vote Conservative after all
Why it might be wrong: Reform’s support could stay solid and even rise further. That could help Nigel Farage have five or six colleagues in the new parliament — and help Labour remove 20 or more Tory MPs who would otherwise hold their seats. Every extra Labour gain increases its majority by two. An extra 20 seats resulting from Reform’s vote holding up would increase Labour’s majority by 40.
3. Turnout will be down. Labour will suffer more than the Conservatives from this
One of the toughest challenges for pollsters is to decide which of their respondents will actually vote at all. In recent elections, the British Election Study has found that only half of people under 30 turn out, compared with about 80 per cent of those over 65. Labour’s lead is greatest among younger voters. The polls try to take all this into account, but if more under-30s stay at home than they expect, Labour will fall short of its predicted support.
Why it might be wrong: Anger with the Tories among younger voters might increase their turnout and help Labour increase its majority. On the other hand, Labour might suffer double trouble with many under-30s staying at home, while others, confident that Labour will win anyway, feel strongly enough about Brexit, climate change and Gaza to vote Green or Lib Dem instead.
4. Labour’s tax plans. Rishi Sunak will fail to persuade enough voters that he will tax them less than Keir Starmer
The polls have consistently found that most people think taxes will go up whoever wins the election. Tories didn’t see a boost when Sunak promised further national insurance cuts and claimed that under Labour there would be a four-year £2,000 hit to family incomes. According to both Ipsos and YouGov, more people still trust Labour than the Tories to handle taxes.
Why it might be wrong: In 1992, uncertain voters were wooed by a strong campaign against Labour’s “double whammy” on taxes. Sunak might yet regain some ground in the final days.
5. How seats swing. For the first time since 1945, the Tories will lose most votes in normally safe Tory seats
On the 13-point gap I am predicting, conventional models would show Labour struggling to win an overall majority, let alone a large one. This is because they assume the same swing in all kinds of seats — safe Tory, safe Labour or marginal.
This time, there is ample evidence that Conservative support is crumbling most in their strongest seats, making them far more vulnerable to Labour and the Lib Dems. Hence recent seat-by-seat MRP polling predictions of huge Labour majorities.
Why it might be wrong: Various MRP surveys disagree wildly on how many normally safe Conservative seats will fall. If Tory MPs defending majorities of 10,000 to 20,000 are able to stem the haemorrhage — for example, where they have built up strong personal reputations — their party will not lose quite so many seats after all.
6. Tactical voting. The Conservatives will suffer to roughly the same extent as in 1997
In that election the Conservatives lost 30 extra seats because of the way Labour and Lib Dem supporters switched their votes to ensure the defeat of their local Tory MP. Labour gained 20 of these, the Lib Dems the other 10.
Why it might be wrong: Tactical voting is certain to take place but what is in doubt is its scale. Some estimates suggest it could exceed what happened in 1997. This would add further to Labour’s majority and help the Lib Dems.
7. Scotland. Labour will regain top place
Based on recent polls, I predict that Labour MPs will outnumber SNP MPs by 28 to 18, depriving John Swinney, Scotland’s first minister, of his claim that the SNP has a mandate for demanding a fresh referendum on independence.
Why it might be wrong: There are likely to be many seats won and lost by tiny majorities. A late swing back to the SNP and/or a small polling error could reverse those seat predictions, and revive Swinney’s mandate argument.
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