punditt/pollster predictions for past general elections

[The Bishop]

Aug 30, 2020 12:02:05 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Aug 30, 2020 11:40:26 GMT The Bishop said:

Well they would certainly have tried all that (and it might have been enough to stop Labour winning outright at least) but fewer might have been willing to listen with the now widely toxic Thatcher still in place. And the countervailing and simple "time for a change" appeal would surely have been highly powerful.

IMO something like the 2010 result (but with Labour in the driving seat) would have been highly possible. And after that, who knows.....?

But then Labour still run into problems in the hung parliament? Buffeted by the press

Entirely plausible, as I implied a wide variety of outcomes were possible. There is also the small matter of the ERM to consider - though I don't necessarily hold the view a Labour (led) government would have been humiliatingly ejected in the same way the Tories actually were; the greater goodwill the EU would have held towards the new regime might have enabled a much softer "realignment".

[nodealbrexiteer]

Aug 30, 2020 12:07:12 GMT The Bishop said:

Aug 30, 2020 12:02:05 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

But then Labour still run into problems in the hung parliament? Buffeted by the press

Entirely plausible, as I implied a wide variety of outcomes were possible. There is also the small matter of the ERM to consider - though I don't necessarily hold the view a Labour (led) government would have been humiliatingly ejected in the same way the Tories actually were; the greater goodwill the EU would have held towards the new regime might have enabled a much softer "realignment".

I still wonder though if many Laburites(and others) think 1992 was a good election lose(PS like the unrepentant Milibite line ).

I still think it could have been a shortlived Lab government that could have been scarred even more than the Winter of Discontent one.

[nodealbrexiteer]

Both in 1992 and 1997 the final Gallup polls for the Daily Telegraph showing a 0.5% Con lead(2% amongst likely voters) and a 14% Lab lead respectively were supplement by Gallup polling in the marginals-in both cases they got the pattern the wrong way around saying Lab would do less well in the marginals than nationally. In 1992 this allowed them to (for the wrong reason) hint at a better Con result than most people predicted(though still short of the magic 326 seats).

[nodealbrexiteer]

2005-Sir Robert Worcester spoke of writing 'Explaining Labour's Third Landslide to be published autumn 2005 in late 2001,Lab maj of 80 to 100 in 2002,100+ in 2003,early 2004 40 to 60 upped to 80 to 100 in late 2005 with Con circa 180/190 seats, then 60 to 80 in 2005 as election day approached with final call in election day Guardian of majority of 71

[johnloony]

I predict that the result of the general election in 2024 will be as follows:
Conservative 480
Labour 120
Corbyn’s Lefty London League 20
Dribbling Lemmings 5
Green 2
SNP 3
PC 2
Speaker 1
DUP 5
Alliance 3
SF 8
SDLP 1

[Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith]

Jun 4, 2021 10:29:11 GMT johnloony said:

I predict that the result of the general election in 2024 will be as follows:
Conservative 480
Labour 120
Corbyn’s Lefty London League 20
Dribbling Lemmings 5
Green 2
SNP 3
PC 2
Speaker 1
DUP 5
Alliance 3
SF 8
SDLP 1

We have more chance of a OMRLP MP than that prediction coming to pass. 

[nodealbrexiteer]

Jun 4, 2021 10:37:49 GMT Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith said:

Jun 4, 2021 10:29:11 GMT johnloony said:

I predict that the result of the general election in 2024 will be as follows:
Conservative 480
Labour 120
Corbyn’s Lefty London League 20
Dribbling Lemmings 5
Green 2
SNP 3
PC 2
Speaker 1
DUP 5
Alliance 3
SF 8
SDLP 1

We have more chance of a OMRLP MP than that prediction coming to pass. 

Or getting s**t out of a rocking horse.

[The Bishop]

Thought it was at least semi-serious until the "SNP 3"