The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,540
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 30, 2020 12:07:12 GMT
Well they would certainly have tried all that (and it might have been enough to stop Labour winning outright at least) but fewer might have been willing to listen with the now widely toxic Thatcher still in place. And the countervailing and simple "time for a change" appeal would surely have been highly powerful. IMO something like the 2010 result (but with Labour in the driving seat) would have been highly possible. And after that, who knows.....? But then Labour still run into problems in the hung parliament? Buffeted by the press Entirely plausible, as I implied a wide variety of outcomes were possible. There is also the small matter of the ERM to consider - though I don't necessarily hold the view a Labour (led) government would have been humiliatingly ejected in the same way the Tories actually were; the greater goodwill the EU would have held towards the new regime might have enabled a much softer "realignment".
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 30, 2020 18:25:44 GMT
But then Labour still run into problems in the hung parliament? Buffeted by the press Entirely plausible, as I implied a wide variety of outcomes were possible. There is also the small matter of the ERM to consider - though I don't necessarily hold the view a Labour (led) government would have been humiliatingly ejected in the same way the Tories actually were; the greater goodwill the EU would have held towards the new regime might have enabled a much softer "realignment". I still wonder though if many Laburites(and others) think 1992 was a good election lose(PS like the unrepentant Milibite line ). I still think it could have been a shortlived Lab government that could have been scarred even more than the Winter of Discontent one.
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 22, 2021 11:23:04 GMT
Both in 1992 and 1997 the final Gallup polls for the Daily Telegraph showing a 0.5% Con lead(2% amongst likely voters) and a 14% Lab lead respectively were supplement by Gallup polling in the marginals-in both cases they got the pattern the wrong way around saying Lab would do less well in the marginals than nationally. In 1992 this allowed them to (for the wrong reason) hint at a better Con result than most people predicted(though still short of the magic 326 seats).
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,053
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jun 3, 2021 21:29:14 GMT
2005-Sir Robert Worcester spoke of writing 'Explaining Labour's Third Landslide to be published autumn 2005 in late 2001,Lab maj of 80 to 100 in 2002,100+ in 2003,early 2004 40 to 60 upped to 80 to 100 in late 2005 with Con circa 180/190 seats, then 60 to 80 in 2005 as election day approached with final call in election day Guardian of majority of 71
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Post by johnloony on Jun 4, 2021 10:29:11 GMT
I predict that the result of the general election in 2024 will be as follows: Conservative 480 Labour 120 Corbyn’s Lefty London League 20 Dribbling Lemmings 5 Green 2 SNP 3 PC 2 Speaker 1 DUP 5 Alliance 3 SF 8 SDLP 1
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Jun 4, 2021 10:37:49 GMT
I predict that the result of the general election in 2024 will be as follows: Conservative 480 Labour 120 Corbyn’s Lefty London League 20 Dribbling Lemmings 5 Green 2 SNP 3 PC 2 Speaker 1 DUP 5 Alliance 3 SF 8 SDLP 1 We have more chance of a OMRLP MP than that prediction coming to pass.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,053
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jun 4, 2021 11:01:37 GMT
I predict that the result of the general election in 2024 will be as follows: Conservative 480 Labour 120 Corbyn’s Lefty London League 20 Dribbling Lemmings 5 Green 2 SNP 3 PC 2 Speaker 1 DUP 5 Alliance 3 SF 8 SDLP 1 We have more chance of a OMRLP MP than that prediction coming to pass. Or getting s**t out of a rocking horse.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,540
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 4, 2021 11:17:08 GMT
Thought it was at least semi-serious until the "SNP 3"
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Post by islington on Oct 14, 2022 22:49:18 GMT
I predict that the result of the general election in 2024 will be as follows: Conservative 480 Labour 120 Corbyn’s Lefty London League 20 Dribbling Lemmings 5 Green 2 SNP 3 PC 2 Speaker 1 DUP 5 Alliance 3 SF 8 SDLP 1 Are you sticking to this?
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Post by Clark on Oct 16, 2022 12:27:18 GMT
Never forget Peter Hitchens predicting a Conservative majority at the 2001 election!
Although I'm not sure at what point in the previous parliament that was predicted.
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Dec 7, 2022 19:50:58 GMT
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Dec 7, 2022 19:52:46 GMT
Never forget Peter Hitchens predicting a Conservative majority at the 2001 election! Although I'm not sure at what point in the previous parliament that was predicted. 2nd half of 2000 i think
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Dec 7, 2022 20:16:07 GMT
Never forget Peter Hitchens predicting a Conservative majority at the 2001 election! Although I'm not sure at what point in the previous parliament that was predicted. 2nd half of 2000 i think For about a week during the fuel strikes in 2000. September 2000 rings a bell. I remember going on a club coach to an away game at Chesterfield that week. It rained heavily and Chesterfield beat Fulham 1-0 in the league cup. 19th September 2000, I think. I’d been at Nottingham Forest on the Saturday.
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 22, 2023 19:25:28 GMT
kellnerpolitics.com/2023/07/12/labour-has-a-50-50-chance-of-an-overall-majority/the key quotes: Taking everything into account, Labour may need a lead of 8-10 per cent in the Britain-wide popular vote to secure an overall majority in the next House of Commons. So: prediction time. I currently expect Labour to end up with 40-44 per cent of the vote, while the Tories win 31-35 per cent. If the result falls within those ranges, Labour will be the largest party, and has a 50-50 chance of securing an overall majority. However, these should be regarded like medium-term economic forecasts, subject to revision—and just as likely to be as wrong as the Bank of England’s recent inflation forecasts. Like economic forecasts, I shall be updating my predictions as the election draw near. I also hope to narrow the range of outcomes for each party towards the end of the campaign. If by some chance one of my forecasts between now and polling day proves right, that is of course the one I shall remind readers of afterwards.
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