nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 19, 2020 19:17:04 GMT
I've always been fascinated by pollsters, academics and other pundits sticking their necks out at election time with their predictions(often appearing in the 'broadsheets') and have collected some information over them over the years. Here's 2 nice links to start-2001 election The Observer and 2005 The Guardian: www.theguardian.com/politics/2001/may/13/election2001.uk1www.theguardian.com/politics/2005/may/05/uk.election200542 pundits in particular I often watch out for are Peter Kellner and Sir Robert Worcester: A few months before the 2001 ballot Kellner forecast a 111 Lab Majority in the Politicos book which he upped to 141 at the start of the campain,150 in the above article,165 late in the campaign(412 Lab Con 163,Lib Dem 53,Oth 31) and 179 on election day(compared to 167). In 2005 he was updating his forecasts in the Sunday Times monthly from about January onwards some forecasts were higher at 88 and 80 Lab majority but the last one forecast 74(compared to 66). Sir Robert forecast a 100 to 120 Lab majority in 2001 from as early as 2nd May 1997, 127 in the politicos book and at the start of the campaign edged up to 130-140,then 140-150,180 to 200 at the start of June,200+ but as he said watching the Lib Dems take off and the turnout estimates stay low he reduced it back to under 200.His final call for the bbC Beat The Rat contest was 160 to 180,election day Times 180 to 200 and on the day before the election or the Tuesday before 166 splitting his guess between 165 and 167 to the KPMG non executive director's breakfast. news.bbc.co.uk/news/vote2001/hi/english/newsid_1323000/1323917.stm news.bbc.co.uk/news/vote2001/hi/english/newsid_1335000/1335694.stm news.bbc.co.uk/news/vote2001/hi/english/newsid_1349000/1349914.stm news.bbc.co.uk/news/vote2001/hi/english/newsid_1361000/1361679.stm news.bbc.co.uk/news/vote2001/hi/english/newsid_1371000/1371112.stm |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 20, 2020 11:32:31 GMT
October 1974:I read Harold Wilson thought they'd get a 12 seat majority and Sir Robert in his private memo of 9th October(according to the Nuffield study and one of his own books forecast a 40(50 according to General Elections Today) or so Lab lead over Con(actual figure 42),a 2.5% swing(actual 2.15%) and an overall majority of five to ten. Michael Steed looking at aggregated poll date from Business Decisions in the Observer of 6th Oct said Lab were only just in line for an overall majority due to a lower swing in the marginals and that it would be Con seats at risk due to the SNP surge
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 20, 2020 11:55:45 GMT
That's interesting given that the "popular" account seems to be the Labour lead was clearly exaggerated in pre-election polling?
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Aug 20, 2020 13:31:34 GMT
A consistent feature of internet-era general elections is an overestimation of the Lib Dems' performance. 2005 was expected to be better (although it remains their best seat performance since the War), 2010 saw the expected Cleggmania-driven surge fall flat, 2015 saw an almost total wipe-out when they had been expected to keep around half their seats and 2019 saw them stand virtually still and not having the expected anti-Brexit bounce. 2017 was about as expected I suppose.
Isn't there a site that lists a load of predictions for the 1997 election? As I recall the mean prediction was something like a 60 Labour majority.
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 20, 2020 13:34:16 GMT
That's interesting given that the "popular" account seems to be the Labour lead was clearly exaggerated in pre-election polling? It was and the private polls were in line with the public ones but the Nuffield study says there was a 'worrying' drop in Lab support detected over the last weekend and a final Con advance. The main parties thought the result would be closer than the polls suggested and James Callaghan bet with Ian Mikardo a 6-10 majority(as he revealed to Robin Day on election night!). |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 20, 2020 13:40:35 GMT
A consistent feature of internet-era general elections is an overestimation of the Lib Dems' performance. 2005 was expected to be better (although it remains their best seat performance since the War), 2010 saw the expected Cleggmania-driven surge fall flat, 2015 saw an almost total wipe-out when they had been expected to keep around half their seats and 2019 saw them stand virtually still and not having the expected anti-Brexit bounce. 2017 was about as expected I suppose. Isn't there a site that lists a load of predictions for the 1997 election? As I recall the mean prediction was something like a 60 Labour majority. I'll come back later on more of the 1997 newspaper lists of predictions but I don't know if you mean the reuters panel of experts of academics, pollsters, newspaper pundits? The mean prediction was 92 on that one |
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 20, 2020 15:39:42 GMT
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 20, 2020 15:57:33 GMT
Peter Kellner upped his to 129 on election day and Ben Pimlott(RIP) upped his to 121 after seeing the forecasts of the other panellists.
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 20, 2020 16:28:14 GMT
Peter Kellner upped his to 129 on election day and Ben Pimlott(RIP) upped his to 121 after seeing the forecasts of the other panellists. The most inaccurate had to be the 120 Tory majority predicted by Iain Dale in 2017 |
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 20, 2020 16:37:50 GMT
Peter Kellner upped his to 129 on election day and Ben Pimlott(RIP) upped his to 121 after seeing the forecasts of the other panellists. The most inaccurate had to be the 120 Tory majority predicted by Iain Dale in 2017 Not a favourite pundit of mine so that is amusing  |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Aug 20, 2020 17:34:14 GMT
Peter Kellner upped his to 129 on election day and Ben Pimlott(RIP) upped his to 121 after seeing the forecasts of the other panellists. The most inaccurate had to be the 120 Tory majority predicted by Iain Dale in 2017 Woodrow Wyatt predicted a Tory majority of 30-40 in 1997 according to the link above! |
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 20, 2020 19:03:16 GMT
The most inaccurate had to be the 120 Tory majority predicted by Iain Dale in 2017 Woodrow Wyatt predicted a Tory majority of 30-40 in 1997 according to the link above! That's right! Chris Moncrieff in the Observer said Con majority of 8!-others in the pullout Will Hutton Lab majority of 100 but if he was allowed to go wild 150,Max Clifford 150,Andrew Neil 50 but he thought it might be higher,Sir Robert actually said 40-100 but if pushed gave the 81 figure saying he thought the british electorate would recoil like a mongoose from a snake at putting a party in with a 200 seat majority, In the Mail Simon Heffer first doubted a Lab majority but said 20-30 on election day,Paul Johnson 100+. |
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 20, 2020 22:06:30 GMT
More predictions from the Politicos guide to the 2001 election:
Robert Wybrow former MD of Gallup Lab maj 121
Anne Perkins 5 short of maj
Gerry Hassan Lab maj 49
Stuart weir Lab maj 21
John Blundell 12 short of majority
Peter Hitchens Con maj 17!
Michael Crick Lab maj 185-brave man!
Brian Brivati Lab maj 35
Justin Fisher Lab maj 117
Julia Langdon Lab maj 61
Iain Dale Lab maj 60ish
simon Henig (one of authors Lab maj 107
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 20, 2020 22:12:36 GMT
Some internal party estimates:
Con 1987 94 maj though Norma Tebbit talked privately of 98.
con 1992-Chris Patten told John Major based on constituency reports they would be the largest party with between 305 and 335 seats(another account says 309-339).
Lab 1997-70 majority,Con-John Major was told first 280 seats then 240 and finally on election day that it would be far worse.
2001 Lab not a forecasts but depending on turnout somewhere from 70/75 to 200.The Tories knew Lab were heading for a 150+ maj for months due to a polling system where people didnt have to talk to interviewers.
2005 Lab 90(or 85 if you read the Telegraph) with Philip Gould predicting Lab 36-38%,Con 32-33,Lib Dem 22-24
2010 Con late in the campaign a number of big beasts though the Con total would be just over 300 seats.
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 20, 2020 22:17:35 GMT
Back to pundits-1987 George Gale in The Spectator correctly said Con maj of just over 100.
1992 William waledgrave and Bernard Ingham Con maj of abut 20.The Observer pullout had Alan Watkins predict 330 Lab seats! with a Tory councillor saying Con Maj 3,Peter Riddell hung parliament,Peter Kellner Con largest party,Sir Robert Lab largest party-though he bet on a Con maj of 20-25 and in the pollster's sweepstake a 21 Con Maj!(He told Paddy ashdwon in early 1990 he though Labour had laid out their wares too early and would be subjected to tory sniping for 2 years which would see them back with a small majority).Nick Sparrow Lab largest party.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Aug 20, 2020 22:46:08 GMT
More predictions from the Politicos guide to the 2001 election: Robert Wybrow former MD of Gallup Lab maj 121 Anne Perkins 5 short of maj Gerry Hassan Lab maj 49 Stuart weir Lab maj 21 John Blundell 12 short of majority Peter Hitchens Con maj 17! Michael Crick Lab maj 185-brave man! Brian Brivati Lab maj 35 Justin Fisher Lab maj 117 Julia Langdon Lab maj 61 Iain Dale Lab maj 60ish simon Henig (one of authors Lab maj 107 Well, most of those would have made for a more interesting election at least. I'm sure I read somewhere that there were fears in Tory circles on the day that they were heading for 30-40 net losses. |
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 21, 2020 7:24:57 GMT
Another one from that Politicos list Lewis Baston Lab maj 112.
2 from The times election day list Nick Sparrow Lab maj 140 to 180 based on similar shares to their last poll and Peter Riddell 150 maj based on share split of 43/31/20
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 21, 2020 7:52:21 GMT
More predictions from the Politicos guide to the 2001 election: Robert Wybrow former MD of Gallup Lab maj 121 Anne Perkins 5 short of maj Gerry Hassan Lab maj 49 Stuart weir Lab maj 21 John Blundell 12 short of majority Peter Hitchens Con maj 17! Michael Crick Lab maj 185-brave man! Brian Brivati Lab maj 35 Justin Fisher Lab maj 117 Julia Langdon Lab maj 61 Iain Dale Lab maj 60ish simon Henig (one of authors Lab maj 107 Well, most of those would have made for a more interesting election at least. I'm sure I read somewhere that there were fears in Tory circles on the day that they were heading for 30-40 net losses. Maybe with a higher turnout there might have been net losses. I think some wanted to claim getting a net gain of 1 seat was a sort of success and Hague should stay on. Made me wonder what was the highest government majority to be increased? Post war it's seems to be the 1955 one. I was always doubtful a 179 seat majority could be increased. |
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Post by johnloony on Aug 21, 2020 9:26:47 GMT
Peter Kellner upped his to 129 on election day and Ben Pimlott(RIP) upped his to 121 after seeing the forecasts of the other panellists. The most inaccurate had to be the 120 Tory majority predicted by Iain Dale in 2017 In 1997 I predicted a Conservative majority of 17. I didn't change my mind until the exit poll. |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Aug 21, 2020 9:42:15 GMT
Regarding Dale, I remember reading his predictions for 2015. When he got to Redcar, he expressed complete bafflement as to how it could possibly have gone Lib Dem. Not that difficult to discover the reason, but obviously he didn't bother putting the effort in.
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