The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Aug 21, 2020 9:46:49 GMT
More predictions from the Politicos guide to the 2001 election: Robert Wybrow former MD of Gallup Lab maj 121 Anne Perkins 5 short of maj Gerry Hassan Lab maj 49 Stuart weir Lab maj 21 John Blundell 12 short of majority Peter Hitchens Con maj 17! Michael Crick Lab maj 185-brave man! Brian Brivati Lab maj 35 Justin Fisher Lab maj 117 Julia Langdon Lab maj 61 Iain Dale Lab maj 60ish simon Henig (one of authors Lab maj 107 Presumably these were made a bit in advance of that election? |
|
nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,447
|
Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 21, 2020 10:00:48 GMT
More predictions from the Politicos guide to the 2001 election: Robert Wybrow former MD of Gallup Lab maj 121 Anne Perkins 5 short of maj Gerry Hassan Lab maj 49 Stuart weir Lab maj 21 John Blundell 12 short of majority Peter Hitchens Con maj 17! Michael Crick Lab maj 185-brave man! Brian Brivati Lab maj 35 Justin Fisher Lab maj 117 Julia Langdon Lab maj 61 Iain Dale Lab maj 60ish simon Henig (one of authors Lab maj 107 Presumably these were made a bit in advance of that election? Yes the book was published a few months before polling day |
|
nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,447
|
Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 21, 2020 10:51:47 GMT
The most inaccurate had to be the 120 Tory majority predicted by Iain Dale in 2017 In 1997 I predicted a Conservative majority of 17. I didn't change my mind until the exit poll. What was your basis for that forecast?  |
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Aug 21, 2020 11:06:24 GMT
The most inaccurate had to be the 120 Tory majority predicted by Iain Dale in 2017 In 1997 I predicted a Conservative majority of 17. I didn't change my mind until the exit poll. I am truly amazed by that confession. Of all elections in my life that was by far the easiest to call with certainty. I expected us to lose narrowly in 1992, until the final three weeks when a narrow stand-off or actual win seemed likely. After 1992 there was gaff and foul-up and tantrum and division and general chaos. By 1994 it was clear we would lose the next election. By 1996 it was a matter of computing the size of their majority. In 1997 I knew we would lose and lose badly but even I undercounted the utter devastation. How on earth did you convince yourself we could possibly be even near to winning? I don't understand it. |
|
nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,447
|
Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 21, 2020 11:45:11 GMT
In 1997 I predicted a Conservative majority of 17. I didn't change my mind until the exit poll. I am truly amazed by that confession. Of all elections in my life that was by far the easiest to call with certainty. I expected us to lose narrowly in 1992, until the final three weeks when a narrow stand-off or actual win seemed likely. After 1992 there was gaff and foul-up and tantrum and division and general chaos. By 1994 it was clear we would lose the next election. By 1996 it was a matter of computing the size of their majority. In 1997 I knew we would lose and lose badly but even I undercounted the utter devastation. How on earth did you convince yourself we could possibly be even near to winning? I don't understand it. Incurable optimism? Funny fags? |
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Aug 21, 2020 12:03:33 GMT
In 1997 I predicted a Conservative majority of 17. I didn't change my mind until the exit poll. What was your basis for that forecast? Being naturally pessimistic. I just thought that there would be a last-minute swing back to the Conservative Party, just as there was in 1992, but of greater magnitude. I didn't dare to hope that I might be wrong. I was of course delighted when the exit poll came out because I knew that it was big enough to withstand even a large margin of error. Of course in 1997 the Conservative Party was, as far I as I was concerned, not "we" then. |
|
nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,447
|
Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 21, 2020 12:14:15 GMT
What was your basis for that forecast? Being naturally pessimistic. I just thought that there would be a last-minute swing back to the Conservative Party, just as there was in 1992, but of greater magnitude. I didn't dare to hope that I might be wrong. I was of course delighted when the exit poll came out because I knew that it was big enough to withstand even a large margin of error. Of course in 1997 the Conservative Party was, as far I as I was concerned, not "we" then. Ah makes sense now. I was Labour then so those feelings were very similar to mine you expressed! |
|
nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,447
|
Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 21, 2020 12:14:52 GMT
though let me add I still expected a Laa win just not so big!
|
|
nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,447
|
Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 21, 2020 19:41:17 GMT
Some more predictions: Peter Riddell 2005-initially Lab majority 50 to 70 upped to 80 end of campaign. Peter Kellner 2005 said 70 to 90.2010-Con 300 to 310,Lab 230 to 240,Lib Dem 75 to 85,Others around 30.2015-this was regularly updated as in 2005 and 2010-Last Sunday he said Con 283,Lab 261,SNP 50,Lib Dem 32,Other 24. 2017-The start of election week he said Con maj of 40 though earlier he said 66 and in 2019 40 seat majority too. Sir Robert: 2005-Before the 2001 election when he said that election would result in a 100 to 120 Lab maj he was saying 20-50 Lab maj for 2005 but after the 2001 result was known it was 80-100 in 2002,100+ in 2003 lowered to 40-60 by 2004 and in the run up back to 80-100 before settling to 60-80 and more specifically 71 in the election day prediction(somewhere else he said 70 give or take 20). 2010:Con maj or few than 20 or hung parliament and then finally hung parliament Con largest party. 2015-Con largest party but did think the Tories might do better than expected in a BBC article www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-310666432017-The title of his latest book was to be Explaining May's Majority but he did say he wasn't sure of a big Tory win as many thought. 2019-18 to 28 Con maj Three political veterans predict the 2015 UK election - BBC News However, perhaps surprisingly, they say the outcome will not lead to another coalition. Sir David Butler, the 90-year-old doyen of academic psephologists who has analysed every election since 1945 ... www.bbc.co.uk |
|
nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,447
|
Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 22, 2020 11:29:52 GMT
|
|
nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,447
|
Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 22, 2020 11:39:29 GMT
|
|
nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,447
|
Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 22, 2020 11:48:37 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by pragmaticidealist on Aug 22, 2020 12:34:05 GMT
Labour apparently had private polling on the eve of the 1992 election that showed that the tide had turned against them. I think it was mentioned in "The Wilderness Years" documentary. I wonder whether Kinnock was aware of it; the BBC immediately cut to him after the exit poll results (showing the Tories just ahead in seats) were announced, and he looked fairly cheerful (although he usually does TBF).
|
|
nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,447
|
Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 22, 2020 14:17:14 GMT
Labour apparently had private polling on the eve of the 1992 election that showed that the tide had turned against them. I think it was mentioned in "The Wilderness Years" documentary. I wonder whether Kinnock was aware of it; the BBC immediately cut to him after the exit poll results (showing the Tories just ahead in seats) were announced, and he looked fairly cheerful (although he usually does TBF). Yes i think that was mentioned in the Nuffield study about the late movement being picked up.I liked Kinnock and yes he does look cheerful enough or trying to be(to maybe keep morale up). A book on him said he and Glenys admitted defeat to each other the Monday before polling day whilst at home. She suddenly blurted out 'You don't think we're going to win do you? And he replied something like 'And neither do you' |
|
nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,447
|
Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 22, 2020 15:06:13 GMT
Perhaps Robert Waller can help here-am I right in thinking the heads of the polling companies at the start(?) of an election campaign used to out their predictions in an envelope? I think I read Robert Wybrow of Gallup won in 1997.
|
|
|
|
Post by robert1 on Aug 22, 2020 16:18:55 GMT
Further to pragmaticidealist's comments re 1992. I had briefed John Major before the election that opinion polls persistently under-estimated the Tory vote share. The election campaign was wet and cold and I knew I was going to lose but I had discerned a shift in the last few days. At about 23.00 on the final Tuesday I received an unscheduled conference call which included JM. I was pretty clear he would win (and that I would lose). Throughout the call I tried not to use too positive language. I didn't want to over boost his morale. I slipped once late in the call about which I was very irritated with myself. One of the factors of which JM seemed unaware was that for some polls the final day fieldwork was more positive than the first. (They were usually conducted over 3 days) Two nights later he was PM and I was no longer MP.
|
|
nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,447
|
Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 22, 2020 21:42:27 GMT
Further to pragmaticidealist's comments re 1992. I had briefed John Major before the election that opinion polls persistently under-estimated the Tory vote share. The election campaign was wet and cold and I knew I was going to lose but I had discerned a shift in the last few days. At about 23.00 on the final Tuesday I received an unscheduled conference call which included JM. I was pretty clear he would win (and that I would lose). Throughout the call I tried not to use too positive language. I didn't want to over boost his morale. I slipped once late in the call about which I was very irritated with myself. One of the factors of which JM seemed unaware was that for some polls the final day fieldwork was more positive than the first. (They were usually conducted over 3 days) Two nights later he was PM and I was no longer MP.
I suppose the feeling must have been like Chris Patten. I wonder was there surprise at the 7.6% lead only delivering a 21 seat majority? |
|
|
|
Post by robert1 on Aug 23, 2020 5:41:52 GMT
There were four people on the call. Chris Patten was one of the others. Even though we were near neighbours I had not had chance to speak to Chris throughout the campaign. Historically there had been a strong Labour vote in Bath. I had therefore assumed that a rising Lab vote would help him even though it was causing me to lose my seat. I learned later that he had already told John Major he was going to lose.
The sense of relief within the party, and surprise amongst the media, at an overall Tory majority meant that there was little analysis of 'what might have been'.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Aug 23, 2020 9:21:40 GMT
The most inaccurate had to be the 120 Tory majority predicted by Iain Dale in 2017 Woodrow Wyatt predicted a Tory majority of 30-40 in 1997 according to the link above! Another veteran pundit, Sir John Junor, predicted a Tory majority in 1997 for his final column in the MoS before the election. It turned out to be his last piece full stop - he went into a coma on polling day and died that Saturday, without ever learning the actual result. |
|
nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,447
|
Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 23, 2020 11:16:34 GMT
Woodrow Wyatt predicted a Tory majority of 30-40 in 1997 according to the link above! Another veteran pundit, Sir John Junor, predicted a Tory majority in 1997 for his final column in the MoS before the election. It turned out to be his final piece full stop - he went into a coma the day of the election and died that Saturday, without ever learning the actual result. That's sad though the prediction was deluded. I think Sir Robert says in one of his Explaining books that he was at a lecture during the campaign and a Tory peer(who also died before the result was known) was insisting there would be another Tory win due to the handling of the economy. In the same section he offered a spread to another Tory die hard on if he's buy or sell on a range of a 82-102 Lab majority and cleaned up! |
|
