nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 23, 2020 11:18:26 GMT
There were four people on the call. Chris Patten was one of the others. Even though we were near neighbours I had not had chance to speak to Chris throughout the campaign. Historically there had been a strong Labour vote in Bath. I had therefore assumed that a rising Lab vote would help him even though it was causing me to lose my seat. I learned later that he had already told John Major he was going to lose. The sense of relief within the party, and surprise amongst the media, at an overall Tory majority meant that there was little analysis of 'what might have been'. I guess that analysis came much later! As Michael White said to a Tory minister, how are you going to get out of this one-answer tax and Kinnock! |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 23, 2020 20:59:26 GMT
Another veteran pundit, Sir John Junor, predicted a Tory majority in 1997 for his final column in the MoS before the election. It turned out to be his final piece full stop - he went into a coma the day of the election and died that Saturday, without ever learning the actual result. That's sad though the prediction was deluded. I think Sir Robert says in one of his Explaining books that he was at a lecture during the campaign and a Tory peer(who also died before the result was known) was insisting there would be another Tory win due to the handling of the economy. My theory is, that "Britain is booming" helped rather New Labour: During a - small - recession many more might have feared, that a Lab.-gov. would "blow it" even more. After studying the LocalElection-results in the years before it was clear even for me as an ignorant foreigner, that the Tories would end below/at 30% of votes and less of seats (due to TacticalVoting). The exact distribution of ABC - Lab and LD - was not so clear for me. The only surprise was, that the Tories recovered already in the LocalElections a little bit (i expected that tradition to take not place in 1997). In 1992 i was a 15-year old, who bought British NewsPapers few times a year, so without real InSights. Irritating was SPÖ/Labour-friendly austrian public TeleVision broadcasting for few seconds that Sheffield-rally: The crowd impressive, but when speaking Mr.Kinnock clearly didn't fit to that scenery at all. |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 24, 2020 14:46:43 GMT
That's sad though the prediction was deluded. I think Sir Robert says in one of his Explaining books that he was at a lecture during the campaign and a Tory peer(who also died before the result was known) was insisting there would be another Tory win due to the handling of the economy. My theory is, that "Britain is booming" helped rather New Labour: During a - small - recession many more might have feared, that a Lab.-gov. would "blow it" even more. After studying the LocalElection-results in the years before it was clear even for me as an ignorant foreigner, that the Tories would end below/at 30% of votes and less of seats (due to TacticalVoting). The exact distribution of ABC - Lab and LD - was not so clear for me. The only surprise was, that the Tories recovered already in the LocalElections a little bit (i expected that tradition to take not place in 1997). In 1992 i was a 15-year old, who bought British NewsPapers few times a year, so without real InSights. Irritating was SPÖ/Labour-friendly austrian public TeleVision broadcasting for few seconds that Sheffield-rally: The crowd impressive, but when speaking Mr.Kinnock clearly didn't fit to that scenery at all. I wont comment on the pain of the Sheffield rally but I agree Georg that if the economy is truly sound the people are more likely to give Labour a chance otherwise they might stick with 'nurse'. |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 24, 2020 20:46:38 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Aug 25, 2020 15:58:59 GMT
I was going through some old papers and I found some of my old predictions:
18th January 1992: I predicted that the result of the forthcoming general election would be:
Conservative 42.2%, 339 seats
Labour 35.9%, 271 seats
Lib Dem 16.3%, 17 seats
SNP 4
PC 3
UUP 9
DUP 3
UPUP 1
SDLP 4
14th September 1991: I predicted
Conservative 41.1%, 345
Labour 34.5%, 262
Lib Dem 18.4%, 20
SNP 4
PC 3
NI 17
12th September 1988: I predicted
Conservative 41.0%, 351
Labour 34.8%, 257
SLD 18.3%, 16
SDP 1
SNP 4
PC 3
Speaker 1
NI 17
12th April 1990: I predicted:
Conservative 41.1%, 337
Labour 39.0%, 272
Democrats 12.2%, 14
Green 2.7%, 0
SDP 1
SNP 5
PC 3
Speaker 1
NI 17
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 25, 2020 18:48:53 GMT
I was going through some old papers and I found some of my old predictions: 18th January 1992: I predicted that the result of the forthcoming general election would be: Conservative 42.2%, 339 seats Labour 35.9%, 271 seats Lib Dem 16.3%, 17 seats SNP 4 PC 3 UUP 9 DUP 3 UPUP 1 SDLP 4 14th September 1991: I predicted Conservative 41.1%, 345 Labour 34.5%, 262 Lib Dem 18.4%, 20 SNP 4 PC 3 NI 17 12th September 1988: I predicted Conservative 41.0%, 351 Labour 34.8%, 257 SLD 18.3%, 16 SDP 1 SNP 4 PC 3 Speaker 1 NI 17 12th April 1990: I predicted: Conservative 41.1%, 337 Labour 39.0%, 272 Democrats 12.2%, 14 Green 2.7%, 0 SDP 1 SNP 5 PC 3 Speaker 1 NI 17 Jan 1992 very impressive! And 1991. At that point it looked like you thought the electoral system would work for Lab unlike in 1990! |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 26, 2020 11:06:44 GMT
April 1990 was an "interesting" prediction given how far the Tories trailed in the polls then - did johnloony presume Thatcher wouldn't still be PM/Tory leader at the GE? |
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Post by hullenedge on Aug 26, 2020 12:20:28 GMT
April 1990 was an "interesting" prediction given how far the Tories trailed in the polls then - did johnloony presume Thatcher wouldn't still be PM/Tory leader at the GE? Perhaps johnloony picked up that your vote was soft/overstated in the polls. The 1990 locals (around here) were bad but not bad bad like 1995/96. |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 26, 2020 15:24:00 GMT
April 1990 was an "interesting" prediction given how far the Tories trailed in the polls then - did johnloony presume Thatcher wouldn't still be PM/Tory leader at the GE? Perhaps johnloony picked up that your vote was soft/overstated in the polls. The 1990 locals (around here) were bad but not bad bad like 1995/96. Probably all those reasons and his pessimism |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 26, 2020 15:40:28 GMT
Where I was (Congleton) the 1990 locals were unprecedentedly bad for the Conservatives. Labour gained the ward we thought was likely to go, the ward we had as a stretch target, and the ward we had not bothered working because it was safely Tory.
It was the exceptional results in London, with the Conservatives gaining Ealing and increasing majorities in Wandsworth and Westminster, which was used by the Conservatives to portray the 1990 locals as a mixed outcome. But outside London they were abysmal.
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 26, 2020 15:46:07 GMT
Where I was (Congleton) the 1990 locals were unprecedentedly bad for the Conservatives. Labour gained the ward we thought was likely to go, the ward we had as a stretch target, and the ward we had not bothered working because it was safely Tory. It was the exceptional results in London, with the Conservatives gaining Ealing and increasing majorities in Wandsworth and Westminster, which was used by the Conservatives to portray the 1990 locals as a mixed outcome. But outside London they were abysmal. Did that lead to The S*n headline 'Kinnock poll-axed'? |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 26, 2020 15:55:16 GMT
Where I was (Congleton) the 1990 locals were unprecedentedly bad for the Conservatives. Labour gained the ward we thought was likely to go, the ward we had as a stretch target, and the ward we had not bothered working because it was safely Tory. It was the exceptional results in London, with the Conservatives gaining Ealing and increasing majorities in Wandsworth and Westminster, which was used by the Conservatives to portray the 1990 locals as a mixed outcome. But outside London they were abysmal. Did that lead to The S*n headline 'Kinnock poll-axed'? The 1990 local elections were the only year from 1982 to 2009 where we (Lib/Lib Dem) lost the Delamere Ward of Crewe to Labour. There was a huge turnout - at least 50% up on normal turnout. We polled our (up till then) highest vote and still lost. That same year Labour won wards from the Tories they had never previously held (Shavington and Haslington) and came within 1 vote in the Wellington Ward of Nantwich. |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 26, 2020 16:05:21 GMT
In some parliaments like 1992-7 the evidence for one party to win is crystal clear from by elections, local elections, European elections as we had then and the polls. Others well..
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 26, 2020 16:39:34 GMT
The national equivalent vote in 1990 was Lab 44%, C 33%, L Dem 17%, others 6%. Labour has only once ever exceeded 44% (47% in 1995). Only one previous year had seen the Conservatives fall below 33% (32% in 1985).
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 26, 2020 17:03:46 GMT
The national equivalent vote in 1990 was Lab 44%, C 33%, L Dem 17%, others 6%. Labour has only once ever exceeded 44% (47% in 1995). Only one previous year had seen the Conservatives fall below 33% (32% in 1985). Thanks for that. The warning signs for Labour were there in retrospect-no lead until 1989 and one that collapsed like a soufflé when Sir John Major came in |
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Post by johnloony on Aug 26, 2020 19:09:17 GMT
April 1990 was an "interesting" prediction given how far the Tories trailed in the polls then - did johnloony presume Thatcher wouldn't still be PM/Tory leader at the GE? Perhaps johnloony picked up that your vote was soft/overstated in the polls. The 1990 locals (around here) were bad but not bad bad like 1995/96. When Thatcher fell in November 1990, I was surprised that she decided to resign because I thought that she would cling on to the bitter end and go down fighting, so no - I don't think that I was expecting her to go. I was probably just assuming that the mid-term dip would go away and that the Conservative Party would recover by the time of the election. I also remember that in the Spring of 1990 I predicted that John Major would be the next P m - but not on any particular timescale. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 29, 2020 11:03:11 GMT
You can never know these things for certain, but one thing I was convinced of at the time and remain so now, is that the Tories would *not* have won a majority in 1991/92 if Thatcher had still been PM. Not least because one thing Labour canvassers picked up on in the actual 1992 campaign was the sentiment that we had already effectively had a change of government when Major took over, and these people often weren't convinced about "changing" things again so soon.
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 29, 2020 11:40:39 GMT
You can never know these things for certain, but one thing I was convinced of at the time and remain so now, is that the Tories would *not* have won a majority in 1991/92 if Thatcher had still been PM. Not least because one thing Labour canvassers picked up on in the actual 1992 campaign was the sentiment that we had already effectively had a change of government when Major took over, and these people often weren't convinced about "changing" things again so soon. I've often wondered this and kind of agree but playing devil's advocate would the tax, Kinnock and fears about unions factors still have scared voters even if MT was there? |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 30, 2020 11:40:26 GMT
Well they would certainly have tried all that (and it might have been enough to stop Labour winning outright at least) but fewer might have been willing to listen with the now widely toxic Thatcher still in place. And the countervailing and simple "time for a change" appeal would surely have been highly powerful.
IMO something like the 2010 result (but with Labour in the driving seat) would have been highly possible. And after that, who knows.....?
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 30, 2020 12:02:05 GMT
Well they would certainly have tried all that (and it might have been enough to stop Labour winning outright at least) but fewer might have been willing to listen with the now widely toxic Thatcher still in place. And the countervailing and simple "time for a change" appeal would surely have been highly powerful. IMO something like the 2010 result (but with Labour in the driving seat) would have been highly possible. And after that, who knows.....? But then Labour still run into problems in the hung parliament? Buffeted by the press |
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