johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850 
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Post by johng on Aug 27, 2020 21:06:18 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 27, 2020 21:16:48 GMT
Rosenberg has a very good two-part piece on Russia on iPlayer at the moment.
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
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Post by mboy on Sept 7, 2020 11:35:22 GMT
Well, things are really going dark...
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WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,267
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Post by WJ on Sept 23, 2020 13:23:40 GMT
Lukashenko has had a quick and private inauguration ceremony. It's starting to feel like if he was going to be toppled it would have happened by now. I reckon he will hang on for a while longer, but might not run again. Unless of course he decides that it's worth risking making constitutional changes to cement his position... www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54262953 |
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 23, 2020 13:53:11 GMT
Lukashenko has had a quick and private inauguration ceremony. It's starting to feel like if he was going to be toppled it would have happened by now. I reckon he will hang on for a while longer, but might not run again. Unless of course he decides that it's worth risking making constitutional changes to cement his position... www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54262953He was never likely to be toppled once he made his peace with Putin. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,721
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 23, 2020 14:12:15 GMT
Lukashenko has had a quick and private inauguration ceremony. It's starting to feel like if he was going to be toppled it would have happened by now. I reckon he will hang on for a while longer, but might not run again. Unless of course he decides that it's worth risking making constitutional changes to cement his position... www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54262953He was never likely to be toppled once he made his peace with Putin. I am not so convinced he is safe yet - if the huge rallies continue and a backlash against violence occurs within the police and armed forces, Putin will drop him like a hot potato. I am sure that Russian diplomats have had private soundings with the opposition, who are not, as yet, anti-Russian. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 23, 2020 15:03:28 GMT
He was never likely to be toppled once he made his peace with Putin. I am not so convinced he is safe yet - if the huge rallies continue and a backlash against violence occurs within the police and armed forces, Putin will drop him like a hot potato. I am sure that Russian diplomats have had private soundings with the opposition, who are not, as yet, anti-Russian. I would imagine as well that the army and the Russian army have had discussions. I wonder if they give him a year or so, depose him, and justify it by having miraculously discovered proof that he rigged it. |
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WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,267
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Post by WJ on Sept 23, 2020 15:28:16 GMT
Lukashenko has had a quick and private inauguration ceremony. It's starting to feel like if he was going to be toppled it would have happened by now. I reckon he will hang on for a while longer, but might not run again. Unless of course he decides that it's worth risking making constitutional changes to cement his position... www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54262953He was never likely to be toppled once he made his peace with Putin. Yes, Russia is key I'm sure. I thought his time was up after that car crash speech he made where he was heckled by the crowd, with his Ceaucescu-like look of horror on his face. |
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Post by johnloony on Sept 25, 2020 1:03:04 GMT
Belarus is still in the "undecided" position.
EITHER (1) the government crackdown on the protestors will escalate to the point where they are arrested en masse (much more so than they are being at the moment), and/or the police and/or army will start shooting at them (thereby persuading them to stop protesting),
OR (2) the protests and demonstrations will grow and escalate to the point at which the police and/or army will take the side of the people, refuse to arrest or shoot, and Lukashenko will fall. This latter option is sub-divided into (2a) the Ceausescu option (in which it will be necessary for the army and/or police actively to intervene by force to remove the Lukashenko regime) and (2b) the Honecker option (in which Lukashenko will go quietly).
I think option (1) is most likely. The demonstrations might even fizzle out over time without the police shooting lots of people.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Sept 25, 2020 8:20:13 GMT
Belarus is still in the "undecided" position. EITHER (1) the government crackdown on the protestors will escalate to the point where they are arrested en masse (much more so than they are being at the moment), and/or the police and/or army will start shooting at them (thereby persuading them to stop protesting), OR (2) the protests and demonstrations will grow and escalate to the point at which the police and/or army will take the side of the people, refuse to arrest or shoot, and Lukashenko will fall. This latter option is sub-divided into (2a) the Ceausescu option (in which it will be necessary for the army and/or police actively to intervene by force to remove the Lukashenko regime) and (2b) the Honecker option (in which Lukashenko will go quietly). I think option (1) is most likely. The demonstrations might even fizzle out over time without the police shooting lots of people. Or (2c) the Ukrainian option where he agrees to go quietly, but the rebels/protestors don't keep to their side of the bargain, and the Russians invade. |
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mboy
Liberal
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Post by mboy on Sept 25, 2020 9:00:59 GMT
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Sept 25, 2020 12:28:34 GMT
Belarus is still in the "undecided" position. EITHER (1) the government crackdown on the protestors will escalate to the point where they are arrested en masse (much more so than they are being at the moment), and/or the police and/or army will start shooting at them (thereby persuading them to stop protesting), OR (2) the protests and demonstrations will grow and escalate to the point at which the police and/or army will take the side of the people, refuse to arrest or shoot, and Lukashenko will fall. This latter option is sub-divided into (2a) the Ceausescu option (in which it will be necessary for the army and/or police actively to intervene by force to remove the Lukashenko regime) and (2b) the Honecker option (in which Lukashenko will go quietly). I think option (1) is most likely. The demonstrations might even fizzle out over time without the police shooting lots of people. I agree, especially as winter is coming. I'd not want to be protesting in Minsk in December. |
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WJ
Non-Aligned
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Post by WJ on Oct 12, 2020 18:20:17 GMT
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neilm
Non-Aligned
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Post by neilm on May 23, 2021 15:43:33 GMT
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,721
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Post by CatholicLeft on May 24, 2021 13:03:53 GMT
This could be construed as piracy. Effectively, Belarus hijacked a plane to get at somebody. It is an unbelievable act that led to the illegal, if temporary, holding of foreign citizens against their will.
Lukashenko thinks he can get away with anything, but even Putin isn't this brazen.
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