Belarusian Presidential Election 2020

[Georg Ebner]

Aug 14, 2020 3:33:01 GMT ibfc said:

Belarus definitely has a large pro Russian section of its electorate and if they weren’t also backing Lukashenko, he should be polling in the teens which is clearly not the case. The Putin Lukashenko relationship is based on portraying cosmetic differences to get the latter cover from the West. Lukashenko by his very nature will probably be loyal to Mother Russia even if Ivan the terrible takes over.

What might play a role: In the census of 2009 only 11% defined themselves as Russians and 81% as WhiteRussians; but less than 1/4 speak in daily life WhiteRussian and over 70% Russian!
(So the situation of the opposition might remind Britons of PC in Wales...)

Lukashenko as a new Ceaucescu (or Tito, who opted in the UNO in important votes always with the SU) for the naive Westerners is not unlikely, at least to some extent.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Belarus is a bit of a made-up country. Which is strange as it is also a credible nation-state.

Belarus as we know it started off in the ruins of Kievan Rus', passed through Lithuania, went into the Russian Empire and then emerges as an entity under the Soviets. In fact, even they weren't keen. After the Secret Protocols were enacted, the original plan was to merge occupied Lithuania and Belarus into one Soviet Republic, based in Vilnius, as a modern version of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania.

Point being that it isn't the end of the world if we let it fall into Moscow's embrace. Because it is already there and always has been. But there would have to be some quid pro quo, such as old Vlad getting out of the Ukraine.

(On that note, getting the Ukraine to agree something like the Austrian State Treaty, guaranteed by Russia, America and the EU might not be a bad idea and resolve tension).

[The Bishop]

One thing I have learned in the past week is that the "Belarussian Government In Exile" still exists, after around a century.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Aug 14, 2020 10:57:04 GMT The Bishop said:

One thing I have learned in the past week is that the "Belarussian Government In Exile" still exists, after around a century.

That's incredible. I'll have to look it up!

[johng]

Do we have the start of a general strike?
The security forces, on the whole, seem to be standing firmly behind Lukashenko so it's probably the only realistic prospect the protests have of getting rid of him.
With the internet being shut down it'll be incredibly hard to organise though.

Lukashenko said today on national TV, '"If you want, go on strike, if you want to work, work...Yes, you can walk on the street [to join the protesters]. There are thousands of them. You can join, walk around with them. But even if they give you money, it will last only for two days…and then what?”''

www.rferl.org/a/belarusians-join-rising-wave-of-strikes-amid-postelection-protests/30783507.html

[Georg Ebner]

Aug 14, 2020 12:50:52 GMT johng said:

Do we have the start of a general strike?
The security forces, on the whole, seem to be standing firmly behind Lukashenko so it's probably the only realistic prospect the protests have of getting rid of him.
With the internet being shut down it'll be incredibly hard to organise though.

Lukashenko said today on national TV, '"If you want, go on strike, if you want to work, work...Yes, you can walk on the street [to join the protesters]. There are thousands of them. You can join, walk around with them. But even if they give you money, it will last only for two days…and then what?”''

www.rferl.org/a/belarusians-join-rising-wave-of-strikes-amid-postelection-protests/30783507.html

By the way: He introduced recently a tax for unemployment - no, not one for the unemployed paid by the employed; instead vice versa: a tax paid by the unemployed (unless they are handicapped or sick)...

[J.G.Harston]

Aug 14, 2020 16:42:41 GMT Georg Ebner said:

By the way: He introduced recently a tax for unemployment - no, not one for the unemployed paid by the employed; instead vice versa: a tax paid by the unemployed (unless they are handicapped or sick)...

What are they expected to pay it with? That's pre-French-revolution madness.

Does it also include unemployed people in receipt of a pension?, at least they have an income.

[Georg Ebner]

Aug 14, 2020 16:47:51 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Aug 14, 2020 16:42:41 GMT Georg Ebner said:

By the way: He introduced recently a tax for unemployment - no, not one for the unemployed paid by the employed; instead vice versa: a tax paid by the unemployed (unless they are handicapped or sick)...

What are they expected to pay it with? That's pre-French-revolution madness.

Does it also include unemployed people in receipt of a pension?, at least they have an income.

My source didn't report on pensionists, but i don't think so - after all pensionists can be seen as being employed by the public.
"Parasite tax" was introduced in 2018 (and does also not apply to child-rich families).

[Devil Wincarnate]

Aug 14, 2020 16:47:51 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Aug 14, 2020 16:42:41 GMT Georg Ebner said:

By the way: He introduced recently a tax for unemployment - no, not one for the unemployed paid by the employed; instead vice versa: a tax paid by the unemployed (unless they are handicapped or sick)...

What are they expected to pay it with? That's pre-French-revolution madness.

Does it also include unemployed people in receipt of a pension?, at least they have an income.

There's a quite fascinating story about the end of Brezhnev. Old Leonid had been completely wedded to full employment to such a degree that you essentially could not be sacked. So people just stopped going to work.

Andropov then appeared and started having these people gaoled or shot.

[peterski]

Unemployment 'benefits' are peppercorn amounts at best , equating to a pittance that even Iain Duncan Smith would baulk at advocating. However, jobs are theoretically plentiful in the absurdly over-manned state owned industries ( think British Leyland in the 1970's ) so hardly anybody bothers claiming . Conversely , benefits for working families are extremely generous ( including lump sums paid upon the birth of children and priority for cheap housing ) All these things equate to a sort of 'social contract' whereby if you work hard and show 'discipline' (Lukashenka's watchword, it peppers nearly every speech he makes) the state will look after you . This appears to be being taken to an extreme as rumours flying around in Belarus (possibly fake news as it's impossible to corroborate) are that riot police are getting huge daily payments (300 dollars and more) and promises of free apartments in order to remain loyal and crack down on demonstrations .
Anecdotally it appears other elements of Lukashenka's support may be ebbing away , a retired military man of my acquaintance is furious at the violence from the state apparatus ( there is a kind of pride in Belarus at being a peaceful country with low crime levels) but also suspicions that some of the more gung-ho elements of the riot police may be imported Russian operatives . Russia is a kind of bogeyman being bandied about by all sides it appears.

[J.G.Harston]

Aug 14, 2020 16:58:06 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Aug 14, 2020 16:47:51 GMT J.G.Harston said:

What are they expected to pay it with? That's pre-French-revolution madness.

Does it also include unemployed people in receipt of a pension?, at least they have an income.

My source didn't report on pensionists, but i don't think so - after all pensionists can be seen as being employed by the public.
"Parasite tax" was introduced in 2018 (and does also not apply to child-rich families).

So, being unemployed is being a parasite? What about employed parasites? You save up enough to ditch the job, but the government calls you a parasite and steals your money. Sounds rather Corbynist.

[cj]

Aug 14, 2020 18:23:33 GMT peterski said:

Unemployment 'benefits' are peppercorn amounts at best , equating to a pittance that even Iain Duncan Smith would baulk at advocating. However, jobs are theoretically plentiful in the absurdly over-manned state owned industries ( think British Leyland in the 1970's ) so hardly anybody bothers claiming . Conversely , benefits for working families are extremely generous ( including lump sums paid upon the birth of children and priority for cheap housing ) All these things equate to a sort of 'social contract' whereby if you work hard and show 'discipline' (Lukashenka's watchword, it peppers nearly every speech he makes) the state will look after you . This appears to be being taken to an extreme as rumours flying around in Belarus (possibly fake news as it's impossible to corroborate) are that riot police are getting huge daily payments (300 dollars and more) and promises of free apartments in order to remain loyal and crack down on demonstrations .
Anecdotally it appears other elements of Lukashenka's support may be ebbing away , a retired military man of my acquaintance is furious at the violence from the state apparatus ( there is a kind of pride in Belarus at being a peaceful country with low crime levels) but also suspicions that some of the more gung-ho elements of the riot police may be imported Russian operatives . Russia is a kind of bogeyman being bandied about by all sides it appears.

Russia playing both sides would hardly be surprising, shit stirring and promoting instability being key components of Putins foreign policy for years.

[neilm]

Aug 13, 2020 10:51:34 GMT The Bishop said:

Of course such assessments pre-suppose that "the opposition" is some sort of monolith, when likely all they totally agree on is getting rid of Lukashenko?

Tell The Truth got mentioned to me specifically.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Russian state television news is now showing footage of police beating protestors, and protestors being released from prison. Make of that what you will.

[jamie]

Aug 15, 2020 14:59:59 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Russian state television news is now showing footage of police beating protestors, and protestors being released from prison. Make of that what you will.

Given its Russia, i have to ask if this was presented as a positive or a negative?

[johng]

It seems through Twitter that the strikes have been fairly well attended.

Are we to expect any little green men on the street of Minsk?

''The Kremlin said Saturday that President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko agreed in a phone call that the "problems" in Belarus would be swiftly resolved.

The phone call came after Belarus leader who claims to have won a disputed presidential election on Sunday said he needed to contact Moscow over growing protests against his rule.

Russia in statements supportive of Lukashenko's election victory has stressed the importance of strengthening the alliance between the two countries, which are formally a union state and until the coronavirus pandemic had no border restrictions. ''

www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/08/15/kremlin-predicts-swift-resolution-of-belarus-unrest-a71162

[John Chanin]

Aug 14, 2020 18:13:10 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Aug 14, 2020 16:47:51 GMT J.G.Harston said:

What are they expected to pay it with? That's pre-French-revolution madness.

Does it also include unemployed people in receipt of a pension?, at least they have an income.

There's a quite fascinating story about the end of Brezhnev. Old Leonid had been completely wedded to full employment to such a degree that you essentially could not be sacked. So people just stopped going to work.

Andropov then appeared and started having these people gaoled or shot.

It is interesting to speculate what might have happened in the Soviet Union if Andropov had not got ill and died shortly after his elevation.  He was definitely opposed to the stasis under Brezhnev, and the dead weight of Soviet bureaucracy.  He might have turned out a more ruthless and successful version of Gorbachev, and the world would have been very different today, and there certainly wouldn’t have been a quasi-independent Belarus.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Aug 15, 2020 18:03:56 GMT John Chanin said:

Aug 14, 2020 18:13:10 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

There's a quite fascinating story about the end of Brezhnev. Old Leonid had been completely wedded to full employment to such a degree that you essentially could not be sacked. So people just stopped going to work.

Andropov then appeared and started having these people gaoled or shot.

It is interesting to speculate what might have happened in the Soviet Union if Andropov had not got ill and died shortly after his elevation.  He was definitely opposed to the stasis under Brezhnev, and the dead weight of Soviet bureaucracy.  He might have turned out a more ruthless and successful version of Gorbachev, and the world would have been very different today, and there certainly wouldn’t have been a quasi-independent Belarus.

It is noteworthy that, when Andropov announced he would crack down on corruption, several people committed suicide immediately.

[johng]

Some incredible videos online of protests in Belarus today. There's a state organised one supporting Lukashenko which is mainly made up of state employees forced to go and elderly people paid to attend. The opposition rally's crowds are simply immense. Like nothing seen so far.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53795871

Some horrifying stories of the torture conducted in 'detention centres' as well.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53776461

My heart really goes out to the Belarusian people. I really thought he would be able to hold on without great difficulty, but protests of this extent really are unprecedented.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

The World Service version of 'More or Less' looked into Belarussian election rigging this week: www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct0pxp

Some interesting observations on how dictators choose the % vote they'd like to poll.