Belarusian Presidential Election 2020

[Devil Wincarnate]

Aug 10, 2020 16:14:14 GMT johng said:

Did someone say 'annexation'?

www.reuters.com/article/us-belarus-election-russia-idUSKCN2561PP?taid=5f316cc6d7d51b000183564a&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

It's amazing how these things come full circle. Lukashenko used to excoriate his predecessor for not being close enough to Russia, for touting the Belarussian language... And now he's ended up doing those same things.

[peterski]

Amidst all the furore about a supposedly rigged presidential election people need to recognise that protests and agitation by a few thousand mainly educated young citizens in the bigger cities are not representative of the wider Belarusian people . Comrade Lukashenka commands strong support in rural areas (still predominantly collectivised agri-communes) and among industrial workers ( 80% of industrial enterprises are state controlled) . These folk are the heartland of Belarus and I still believe support President Lukashenka in large numbers ; being well aware that 'liberalisation' and 'reform' means either Ukrainian/Russian style gangster capitalism or Western style neo-liberal lunacy and subsequent de-industrialisation and mass unemployment .
I would counsel those who are agitating for change in Belarus to be very careful what they wish for .

[CatholicLeft]

Aug 10, 2020 19:46:36 GMT peterski said:

Amidst all the furore about a supposedly rigged presidential election people need to recognise that protests and agitation by a few thousand mainly educated young citizens in the bigger cities are not representative of the wider Belarusian people . Comrade Lukashenka commands strong support in rural areas (still predominantly collectivised agri-communes) and among industrial workers ( 80% of industrial enterprises are state controlled) . These folk are the heartland of Belarus and I still believe support President Lukashenka in large numbers ; being well aware that 'liberalisation' and 'reform' means either Ukrainian/Russian style gangster capitalism or Western style neo-liberal lunacy and subsequent de-industrialisation and mass unemployment .
I would counsel those who are agitating for change in Belarus to be very careful what they wish for .

70% of Belarusians live in urban areas. If you must troll, don't do it on a psephologically and demograohically based forum.

[peterski]

No , I am not trolling . Unlike the vast majority of these self-styled experts on Belarus I have actually spent lengthy periods of time in the country. There is undoubtedly an impulse for change in sections of the urban youth but my contention is that it isn't widely shared amongst the population at large , be they either urban or rural.
If I was going to be pressed on predicting a realistic election result ( I admit the released figures are a trifle embellished) I could well believe that the opposition narrowly won in Minsk and parts of western Belarus but that Lukashenka overall predominated with 55-60%.

[Deleted]

Generally speaking, police joining in with a protest they're meant to crush is not indicative of a regime with 60% support

[johng]

Aug 10, 2020 20:18:53 GMT peterski said:

No , I am not trolling . Unlike the vast majority of these self-styled experts on Belarus I have actually spent lengthy periods of time in the country. There is undoubtedly an impulse for change in sections of the urban youth but my contention is that it isn't widely shared amongst the population at large , be they either urban or rural.
If I was going to be pressed on predicting a realistic election result ( I admit the released figures are a trifle embellished) I could well believe that the opposition narrowly won in Minsk and parts of western Belarus but that Lukashenka overall predominated with 55-60%.

I'll admit to bursting out loud laughing reading that!

To me, it's quite doubtful that Lukashenko would have such broad support across the country. You're certainly right he would have done much better in rural areas, but Belarus is very urban with most sources claiming it's 78% urban. We'll have to see what the coming days bring I suppose. If the general strike comes to fruition, it'll be interesting to see the levels of support in industrial plants across the country.

Certainly in Ukraine during Maiden, there was quite broad support amongst industrial workers. Solidarity in Poland was also very much a workers revolution.

[kvasir]

It should come as no surprise to anyone that CatholicLeft is correct on the numbers. I personally only have data for 2009 census so it is a bit out of date, however the numbers will not be that far off. According to Belarus there were 9,503,807 people in Belarus and of them 6,697,660 live in towns (over 6,000 people*) which is 70.5% of the population. Whilst that is still relatively rural peterski paints a disjointed picture.

*One official town had slightly less which I assume is a legacy issue.

[Deleted]

At the last census over 2 million lived in Minsk alone

[johng]

I had absolutely no idea how urban Belarus was.

The Encyclopedia Britannica states it's 78.1%. CIA World Fact Book states 79.5%.

No matter whose figures you choose, it's overwhelmingly urban.

[Devil Wincarnate]

As far as I can see, pretty much ever major settlement in the west of the country had protests last night. I can't believe that Borisov and Vitebsk were quiet.

[carlton43]

Aug 10, 2020 21:04:26 GMT @europeanlefty said:

At the last census over 2 million lived in Minsk alone

How very sad.  All those lonely people.  No wonder there are riots.

[cj]

First confirmed fatality

[Deleted]

Aug 10, 2020 23:18:14 GMT cj said:

First confirmed fatality

If Tsikhanouskaya really hasn't been heard from that's also quite worrying

[markgoodair]

Aug 11, 2020 0:06:56 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Aug 10, 2020 23:18:14 GMT cj said:

First confirmed fatality

If Tsikhanouskaya really hasn't been heard from that's also quite worrying

The Lithuanian government have confirmed she is on their territory.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Aug 11, 2020 8:20:04 GMT markgoodair said:

Aug 11, 2020 0:06:56 GMT @europeanlefty said:

If Tsikhanouskaya really hasn't been heard from that's also quite worrying

The Lithuanian government have confirmed she is on their territory.

It sounds like she was essentially deported. The classic Eastern Bloc way to deal with dissidents from Brezhnev onwards.

[johng]

I wouldn't be too sure about that. It's much better to have her locked up in prison on trumped-up charges than agitating from abroad.

[The Bishop]

Yeah, I highly doubt if this is going to return things to "normal".

[Devil Wincarnate]

Aug 11, 2020 9:08:23 GMT johng said:

I wouldn't be too sure about that. It's much better to have her locked up in prison on trumped-up charges than agitating from abroad.

I'm not too sure. Having her out of the country and him in gaol gives him the best of both worlds.

Anyway, if you haven't before, I can recommend reading the story about the DDR deportation of Wolf Biermann and Nina Hagen. Completely bizarre. And not just because it involves Crazy Nina.

[therealriga]

Jul 29, 2020 22:48:59 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

I know one person who has been to Minsk. He described it as being surprisingly dull for sich a weird place.

I went in 2014. They were hosting the World Ice Hockey Championships and there was therefore no need for pre-arranged visas to cross land borders. I actually enjoyed it, though my expectations had been low. It was probably the wrong time to judge it, though. It was clear that they were making a concerted effort to show their best face to foreign visitors. I spoke with an expat Belarusian guy I know after and he claimed that in the run-up to the tournament they'd rounded up all the beggars and vagrants and relocated them to "social centres" (basically makeshift prisons) outside the city. There, though they were de facto prisoners for the duration of the tournament they got reasonable accommo and generous supplies of food and booze. There were also price controls in place and it was noticeable that there was no price gouging.  At one point, a couple of old women started setting up to sell the usual trinkets (flowers, paper hankies) outside one of the cathedrals, presumably as they were accustomed to, in order to supplement their meagre pensions. Barely a few minutes had passed before the cops appeared and chased them away. My acquaintance also told me that Lukashenko had prohibited all photos of himself from behind, due to a noticeable bald spot (!) It was all very clean and sterile, I suppose there are advantages to having events hosted in such places.

There were creepy images like this therealriga.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/dsc02038.jpg around the city

I always find it weird that such regimes insist on insanely high percentages of the vote as it's always a dead giveaway that something is wrong and a sign of weakness rather than strength. Unless there are very specific circumstances (major parties not opposing a ceremonial president, Le Pen getting to the run-off in 2002) there's something wrong and suspicious if a winning candidate gets more than 60% in a supposedly fair election.

[johng]

Perhaps she was exiled then. Probably a poor decision by Lukashenko if that's the case. Of course her husband and family are atill in Belarus so he still has a lot of leverage.