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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 9, 2020 20:30:38 GMT
Distinct signs this evening that the Belarussian people aren't prepared to put up with the fixing any more.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 9, 2020 21:06:46 GMT
Distinct signs this evening that the Belarussian people aren't prepared to put up with the fixing any more. He said there won't be another Maidan. He might find he gets another Timosoara instead. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 9, 2020 21:22:53 GMT
One video on Twitter shows obvious police brutality. But another shows the police essentially just abandoning their posts. If that is genuine, he's going to have to call in the army. And they might not well be up for helping him.
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mboy
Liberal
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Post by mboy on Aug 9, 2020 21:55:46 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 9, 2020 22:12:19 GMT
Well, I'll eat my hat. The Belarussian consulate in Munich has released these figures which might be for all Belarussian voters in Germany. That's remarkable as an act in its own right, but they show Tikhanovskaya with 786 votes to 45 for Lukashenko.
/photo/1
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 9, 2020 22:15:41 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 9, 2020 22:23:47 GMT
Reports are coming in that the riot police in Brest and Pinsk refused to get stuck into the protestor, and have laid down their riot shields.
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Post by rivers10 on Aug 9, 2020 22:27:46 GMT
One video on Twitter shows obvious police brutality. But another shows the police essentially just abandoning their posts. If that is genuine, he's going to have to call in the army. And they might not well be up for helping him. If he's forced to call in the army then that really is the end of him, might not happen this week or even this year but he will have in the eyes of Russia categorically failed to maintain control over his country, if Putin pulls the plug Lukashenko doesn't have a leg to stand on |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Aug 10, 2020 5:55:57 GMT
The expression from my cold dead hands comes to my mind, I could imagine a future where parts of the resource laden eastern wilderness falling under a Chinese sphere of influence easier than I could imagine the loss of Little Russia, far too tied into the national mythology. Well unless in such a scenario the resurgence of The Middle Kingdom made the Russia itself finally follow the path of Peter and turn to Europe itself
Perhaps China will try and aim for annexation of parts of Siberia first, but Russia is past its peak military power. Russia was past its peak military power a long time ago. However a few developments are keeping it close to the top table and maybe even at it: the new (ish) tank is very good and they're developing missile tech at a clip. |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Aug 10, 2020 9:03:09 GMT
Very difficult time for Belarus.
Looking at the leaked results, it really does seem that Tsikhanouskaya won.
Lukashenko will stay in control only if he remains in control of the security forces.
There are huge risks is he has to call in the army. He will become an even bigger pariah in the eyes of the west. He will be seen as weak by Russia and, despite current animosity, Lukashenko needs Putin. The army is primarily made up of conscripted young boys who would have little personal inclination to fight for Lukashenko.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Aug 10, 2020 10:43:48 GMT
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 10, 2020 10:57:39 GMT
Let's not get our hopes up too soon.  |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Aug 10, 2020 11:01:04 GMT
The Polish government is calling for respect of fundamental freedoms, human and citizen rights. This seems...misplaced.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 10, 2020 11:21:08 GMT
Well, some might say also rather rich given the source.....
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Aug 10, 2020 12:49:33 GMT
Some incredible photos of last night on Twitter. Reports of some workers already starting a general strike.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 10, 2020 12:52:18 GMT
Well, some might say also rather rich given the source..... True, but they were never not going to say it. A large part of western Belarus used to be Polish and still has Poles in it. These are the Kresy, the stolen lands of the East, and they weigh heavily in national mythology. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 10, 2020 13:49:58 GMT
Well, some might say also rather rich given the source..... True, but they were never not going to say it. A large part of western Belarus used to be Polish and still has Poles in it. These are the Kresy, the stolen lands of the East, and they weigh heavily in national mythology. Also includes areas of Ukraine (Lwow, now Lviv and its hinterland), and a small part of Lithuania that includes the capital Vilnius (was Wilna under Polish rule). They're not getting those back. |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Aug 10, 2020 14:24:49 GMT
I hadn't realised that the three women who combined to make the opposition ticket a winner are actually the wives of previous candidates who were jailed/exiled in the run-up to the elections! What a remarkable story if they pull off victory...  |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Aug 10, 2020 16:14:14 GMT
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mboy
Liberal
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Post by mboy on Aug 10, 2020 16:20:35 GMT
Can anyone say Faustian Bargain?
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