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Post by swanarcadian on Nov 4, 2024 19:16:35 GMT
Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:
SNP: 30% (+1)
LAB: 23% (-9)
CON: 15% (+3)
RFM: 14% (+2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
Via @norstatukpolls, 30 Oct - 1 Nov.
Changes w/ 20-22 Aug.
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Post by michaelarden on Nov 5, 2024 10:01:40 GMT
Scottish Westminster Voting Intention: SNP: 30% (+1) LAB: 23% (-9) CON: 15% (+3) RFM: 14% (+2) LDM: 10% (+2) GRN: 6% (+1) Via @norstatukpolls, 30 Oct - 1 Nov. Changes w/ 20-22 Aug. What would that look like in seat terms? |
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Nov 5, 2024 10:37:08 GMT
The couple of polls don't indicate much of an SNP recovery but Labour losing votes to all the other parties
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 5, 2024 11:37:10 GMT
The couple of polls don't indicate much of an SNP recovery but Labour losing votes to all the other parties I have a low opinion of polls even in the UK. They are a snapshot on a day which may tell one a bit about the cumulative past and even more about the immediate past, but they are not and cannot be a forecast for any future moment. And they are massaged and manipulated to cope with the perceived error factors in the small sample sizes. I am very dubious indeed over such 'adjustments' and would much prefer 'honest' raw polling. And it is often a mistake to view them as having rational internal statistical integrity. A poll or an election in not hematic and it is wrong to assume, as in this case, that Labour are shedding votes in those proportions to other parties. They may be up to a point or may not be. The differential dynamics on any one day can be most odd. Labour are in power and a bit 'under the cosh' and probably very unused to being under the cosh and feel it should not apply to them at all, and certainly not yet and not to this degree of acid strength. So many floating supporters from the GE may well have retreated to not supporting any one and been the main cause of their loss. Meanwhile a Conservative party in the recovery ward is feeling better about itself and about the political future and thus attracting back a proportion of its lost vote from July from being non voters. Reform is probably also getting support from those who often don't vote to a greater extent than from any other party. Labour will have had small net losses to other parties but those will not mirror the arithmetic of the poll. |
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 20, 2024 7:50:16 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Nov 20, 2024 18:33:33 GMT
It's odd that the unpopularity of the SNP government in Scotland and the rapidly-increasing earlier-than-usual unpopularity of the Labour government in the UK are competing with each other to get the two main parties into second place behind each other. |
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 20, 2024 20:59:14 GMT
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,043
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Post by nyx on Nov 20, 2024 21:30:45 GMT
It's odd that the unpopularity of the SNP government in Scotland and the rapidly-increasing earlier-than-usual unpopularity of the Labour government in the UK are competing with each other to get the two main parties into second place behind each other. Similar to the situation in the general election this year in Aberdeenshire and the Borders, when the SNP and Tories were essentially competing over who was falling back the fastest. |
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Sandy
Forum Regular
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Post by Sandy on Nov 21, 2024 10:54:14 GMT
That’s like something the Lib Dems would cook up. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Nov 21, 2024 11:06:01 GMT
Interesting spin on a poll that finds 58% don't want independence.
Academic of course as those five options will never appear on the same ballot paper.
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Post by michaelarden on Nov 21, 2024 12:36:57 GMT
Interesting spin on a poll that finds 58% don't want independence. Academic of course as those five options will never appear on the same ballot paper. The 19% who said more powers for the Scottish Parliament might not agree. |
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hengog
Conservative
Posts: 1,429
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Post by hengog on Nov 21, 2024 12:44:48 GMT
It's odd that the unpopularity of the SNP government in Scotland and the rapidly-increasing earlier-than-usual unpopularity of the Labour government in the UK are competing with each other to get the two main parties into second place behind each other. What kind of coalition could be fashioned out of this? |
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Post by bigfatron on Nov 21, 2024 12:46:36 GMT
It's odd that the unpopularity of the SNP government in Scotland and the rapidly-increasing earlier-than-usual unpopularity of the Labour government in the UK are competing with each other to get the two main parties into second place behind each other. What kind of coalition could be fashioned out of this? SNP, Green and Reform - a marriage made in heaven… |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Nov 21, 2024 13:42:25 GMT
It's not easy for their to be a snap election at Holyrood, but I wouldn't be surprised if this did it. Any government, other than a Scottish GroKo, would require Reform or the Conservatives, and with the present climate I can't see that happening. |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Nov 21, 2024 13:46:06 GMT
It's odd that the unpopularity of the SNP government in Scotland and the rapidly-increasing earlier-than-usual unpopularity of the Labour government in the UK are competing with each other to get the two main parties into second place behind each other. What kind of coalition could be fashioned out of this? Presumably either SNP-Labour or Labour minority |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Nov 21, 2024 14:04:48 GMT
Interesting spin on a poll that finds 58% don't want independence. Academic of course as those five options will never appear on the same ballot paper. The 19% who said more powers for the Scottish Parliament might not agree. Hard disagree. If you want independence you would have chosen one of the first two options (indi in/out of the EU). If you voted for the ‘more powers option’ you clearly don’t want indi. As I said, academic as there won’t be a ballot paper with those options. Sure in a hypothetical referendum on further powers those who want indi would vote for more powers (unless they’re stubborn and abstain, think David Owen and AV etc), but not the reverse. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Nov 21, 2024 14:22:01 GMT
Interesting spin on a poll that finds 58% don't want independence. Academic of course as those five options will never appear on the same ballot paper. The 19% who said more powers for the Scottish Parliament might not agree. Wanting more powers is not a pro-independence position. Many who support it do so, wrongheadedly in my view, because they view it as the means to prevent independence. |
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Post by andrewp on Nov 21, 2024 16:21:07 GMT
Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:
SNP: 31% (=)
LAB: 28% (-3)
CON: 15% (+1)
RFM: 13% (+2)
LDM: 6% (-3)
Via @survation, 1-15 Nov.
Changes w/ 10-13 Sep.
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Post by swanarcadian on Nov 21, 2024 16:24:34 GMT
Holyrood:
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Post by michaelarden on Nov 21, 2024 16:48:45 GMT
The 19% who said more powers for the Scottish Parliament might not agree. Hard disagree. If you want independence you would have chosen one of the first two options (indi in/out of the EU). If you voted for the ‘more powers option’ you clearly don’t want indi. As I said, academic as there won’t be a ballot paper with those options. Sure in a hypothetical referendum on further powers those who want indi would vote for more powers (unless they’re stubborn and abstain, think David Owen and AV etc), but not the reverse. The point is more powers were promised and not delivered in 2014 to stop independence. A future referendum would have the status quo or indy and those wanting more powers will have to weigh up whether that is likely to be delivered by the UK (again) - what is clear is that indy definitely delivers more powers for Scotland. Would they trust the unionists a second time that they will deliver? |
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