Scottish polls

[Sibboleth]

The figures appear to come from an Opinium report on the national question ten years after the referendum. They look remarkably similar to the Holyrood voting intentions used for weighting political balance in the report anyway. I think it might be for the best if hyperventilating poll grift accounts were quietly put to sleep in general.

[mattbewilson]

We live in a world where content is driven by viewership. Grifters only can produce content if they're able to do it before others. Most pollsters don't post their polls on twitter for at least a day when their poll is published. Some grifter is going to get the views if they're first to publish.

Britain Elects used to be the place you see polls first but since they've got a job now they haven't the time which is fair enough. There's a gap in the market. Some people try to fill it; Election Maps for example. But the person who does it more than anyone else is the guy who produces hard left content.

they want views, theyve identifed a way to get that

[John Chanin]

Sept 18, 2024 19:51:20 GMT mattbewilson said:

Also....

[The Bishop]

SfL were open about their political orientation from the beginning, but nonetheless started off reporting polling data pretty accurately and dispassionately. I fear their descent into grifting is yet another example of Starmer Derangement Syndrome at work.

[Forfarshire Conservative]

[Sandy]

Sept 19, 2024 20:37:13 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

The Greens will not win Glasgow Kelvin. Also Labour winning Anniesland but missing out on any of the east Glasgow seats seems wierd. 

[swanarcadian]

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Very good poll for the SNP and Reform, not all that bad for the Conservatives, as people have been predicting low teens and picking up a few constituencies is what we need to do to hold a base, but it’s bad for Labour. Obviously I’ll be accused of being partisan, but Labour really should be doing better than that after two decades, and I agree with BBS; it would difficult for Labour to become a legitimate government that far behind.

[aargauer]

I'm slightly mystified why reform have broken through when ukip did not.

[uthacalthing]

Nov 3, 2024 18:31:30 GMT aargauer said:

I'm slightly mystified why reform have broken through when ukip did not.

Nigel Farage, a Great Man on par with Margaret Thatcher, Alex Salmond or Tony Blair, learned from his early mistakes and discarded the traditional democratic political party model in favour of one  based on it being a Limited Company to which people subscribe. Like the Readers Digest. 

[swanarcadian]

Nov 3, 2024 18:31:30 GMT aargauer said:

I'm slightly mystified why reform have broken through when ukip did not.

I guess UKIP tended to be viewed, unfairly or otherwise, as much more of a single issue party, ie. get out the EU. Other issues such as illegal immigration and electoral reform were secondary; now they can take a higher priority.

[uthacalthing]

It's now a broader anti-establishment party.

For certain definitions of the establishment (largely involving Tertiary education lecturers and any public sector person on a six-figure salary)

[No Offence Alan]

Nov 3, 2024 18:00:31 GMT swanarcadian said:

On that projection, either the Cons or Reform would have to positively vote for Anas Sarwar as FM to beat the SNP since Lab + Grn + LD would not be enough.

[riccimarsh]

Nov 3, 2024 18:31:30 GMT aargauer said:

I'm slightly mystified why reform have broken through when ukip did not.

The presence of UK in their name might have put off a fair chunk of independence-minded voters too.

Although, Reform are technically Reform UK, right… so maybe not.

[Tony Otim]

It's probably a lot less to do with the difference between Reform and UKIP than it is to do with the popularity of the Tories and to a lesser extent Labour and the SNP.

[irish observer]

Were I SNP I'd prefer to have a decent enough election in Holyrood and become main opposition. Then watch and see who rules the other side and throw verbal bric-a-brac at them. Don't think LAB will be able to govern on their own given rule in London and Wales also. So a coalition with Tories and resumption of LAB-LIB Govt unlikely I would imagine given weakness of LIB now. Would help SNP further rebuild in Scotland to prepare for next local elections.

[aargauer]

Nov 4, 2024 9:48:45 GMT irish observer said:

Were I SNP I'd prefer to have a decent enough election in Holyrood and become main opposition. Then watch and see who rules the other side and throw verbal bric-a-brac at them. Don't think LAB will be able to govern on their own given rule in London and Wales also. So a coalition with Tories and resumption of LAB-LIB Govt unlikely I would imagine given weakness of LIB now. Would help SNP further rebuild in Scotland to prepare for next local elections.

A lib-lab coalition could probably rely on Tory support on key votes enough to function, but relying on reform is not a place I'd want to be operating if I were them.

[batman]

Recent by-elections in Scotland have been pretty good for Labour, sometimes even very good. I wonder if there has been very recent swing from Labour to SNP, or whether the poll is a bit of an outlier.

[The Bishop]

Though even if they have become less popular, Labour will likely still be helped in those byelections by the electoral system.

Even so getting over excited because of a single poll is, as ever, to be avoided. One thing to recall is that by the 2027 election a lot of attention is inevitably going to be centred on the fact the SNP have been in power at Holyrood for 18 years. That is an awfully long time, and the desire for change is bound to feature to a degree.

[greyfriar]

Nov 4, 2024 11:27:38 GMT batman said:

Recent by-elections in Scotland have been pretty good for Labour, sometimes even very good. I wonder if there has been very recent swing from Labour to SNP, or whether the poll is a bit of an outlier.

One suspects there is an element of short honeymoon for Labour given the harsh realities of the fiscal situation in government.

It should be noted however that a component of the SNP decline since 2017 has been turnout, so polling preference may not wholly reflect willingness to head for the polling station, especially where dissatisfaction with incumbency struggles to precipitate in contentedness with a suitable recipient for a protest vote.

There is a fair case to be made that the SNP could do with the therapy of a marginal defeat to facilitate a period of reflective renewal in opposition. Arguably this poll could be worse than defeat for them, consigning them to weak minority government as the largest party and with a splintered association of unaligned opposition.