Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2024 0:23:22 GMT
That looks right for the SNP and Labour, but knock 4% off Reform and give it to the Tories,a dent act feels more realistic for those parties. 11% for the Tories?  |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,439 
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Post by iain on Jul 2, 2024 23:42:28 GMT
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,384
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Post by stb12 on Jul 3, 2024 9:59:40 GMT
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Post by kevinf on Aug 25, 2024 16:28:41 GMT
There’s a new Norstat poll out, showing election of Reform and Alba MSPs.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,907
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 25, 2024 17:57:54 GMT
I think if they maintain current levels, I would be surprised not to see Reform MSPs elected. Alba on the other hand I remain to be convinced about.
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,384
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Post by stb12 on Aug 25, 2024 18:48:19 GMT
I think if they maintain current levels, I would be surprised not to see Reform MSPs elected. Alba on the other hand I remain to be convinced about. Yep, it would match up with Reform’s General Election performance in Scotland. Alba there were no signs at all of a surge even for the two defected MPs that they had |
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Post by hullenedge on Aug 26, 2024 20:58:29 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 10, 2024 18:48:25 GMT
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Sandy
Forum Regular
Posts: 3,206
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Post by Sandy on Sept 11, 2024 12:14:45 GMT
It will REALLY piss off the SNP if Reform win seats in their backyard.
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,384
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Post by stb12 on Sept 11, 2024 12:26:54 GMT
It will REALLY piss off the SNP if Reform win seats in their backyard. It would be a surprise if they didn’t win list seats based on current numbers, but the Scottish Tories will be hoping a lot of that vote comes home |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,907
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 11, 2024 12:31:10 GMT
Would give something like:
Lab 42
SNP 39
Con 16
LD 13
Grn 11
Ref 8
which would be an interesting parliament.
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,384
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Post by stb12 on Sept 11, 2024 12:48:49 GMT
Would give something like: Lab 42 SNP 39 Con 16 LD 13 Grn 11 Ref 8 which would be an interesting parliament. Labour could get away with everyone else abstaining there in a First Minister contest with the SNP |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,907
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 11, 2024 13:35:14 GMT
Would give something like: Lab 42 SNP 39 Con 16 LD 13 Grn 11 Ref 8 which would be an interesting parliament. Labour could get away with everyone else abstaining there in a First Minister contest with the SNP Or possibly a more formal Lab-Lib minority administration. |
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Sandy
Forum Regular
Posts: 3,206
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Post by Sandy on Sept 11, 2024 14:38:04 GMT
Not really the right thread but if there was an extraordinary Scottish Election, can the stupid law requiring one to be held in 2026 anyway be circumvented?
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 18, 2024 11:25:53 GMT
Can't see this poll on any other sites (sub-sample?):-
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,043
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Post by nyx on Sept 18, 2024 16:55:55 GMT
Can't see this poll on any other sites (sub-sample?):- I don't trust that seat estimate, given the efficiency of the Labour vote in Scotland now. Possible that Labour could be on a similar seat total as the SNP even in the event of being significantly behind by popular vote. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,730
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 18, 2024 17:06:02 GMT
Can't see this poll on any other sites (sub-sample?):- Even The National aren't reporting this as a poll. The Stats for Lefties author is becoming quite dishonest in posting; if you check the small print, the "seat projections" are Stats for Lefties estimations, nobody elses. |
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Post by John Chanin on Sept 18, 2024 17:10:57 GMT
I think we all know now that Stats for Lefties can be ignored, so I suggest people stop publishing their tweets.
However it is true that both Labour and SNP votes in the central belt are very similar in every seat, leading automatically to wild swings between Westminster elections. Of course the Scottish Parliament is more representative.
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Post by mattbewilson on Sept 18, 2024 19:05:21 GMT
I don't think SFL has ever pretended they use UNS or something.
Tbf since Britain Elects now works full time and they don't have as much time for posting everything I do like SFLs for that
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Post by mattbewilson on Sept 18, 2024 19:51:20 GMT
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