|
Post by jollyroger93 on Feb 17, 2023 12:46:19 GMT
So in "normal" poll speak excluding DKs, that equates to? Roughly SNP 38 Lab 35 Con 16 LD 5 Grn 3 Others 3 The "official" figure may be slightly different taking into account likelihood to vote etc. So from the last yougov poll that's SNP=-4 Labour=+6 Tories=+1 Libs=-1 And greens flat lining
|
|
cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,081
|
Post by cogload on Feb 17, 2023 12:52:28 GMT
|
|
|
Post by greyfriar on Feb 17, 2023 13:39:49 GMT
SNP 37.7% Lab 35.1% Con 15.6% LD 5.2% Grn 2.6% Oth 2.6% Actually, if you guess that around 35% is rock bottom for the SNP, this isn't as unfeasible as one might suppose, with former Labour-voting Tories returning to Labour and SNP voters also switching in a WM election to get the Tories out. I guess a lot of the DKs are normally SNP voters. An area of strength for the SNP and weakness for Lab/Con prospects is the marked regional split in terms of second places. In the central belt, Labour can expect moderate swings to nudge them ahead of SNP incumbents, albeit with not a lot of Tory or Lib Dem voters to eat into. Motivation/apathy is a critical ingredient here and led to the surprise losses the SNP incurred in 2017. But a Labour resurgence stops in these former heartlands, they have literally no chance in the Borders, Dumfriesshire, Perthshire, Aberdeenshire and Highlands, which are all Tory leaning from the unionist side - indeed swings from Con to Lab in these constituencies serve to bolster the SNP by splitting the opposition. One or two Highland seats with a Lib Dem history might see them ‘win here’ from well off the pace with everything going their way, but would expect the SNP floor to be higher than the Tories in most areas, if it’s a race to the bottom of apathetic voters not keen on either party after over a decade in their respective centres of power.
|
|
CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,248
|
Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 17, 2023 13:54:07 GMT
Actually, if you guess that around 35% is rock bottom for the SNP, this isn't as unfeasible as one might suppose, with former Labour-voting Tories returning to Labour and SNP voters also switching in a WM election to get the Tories out. I guess a lot of the DKs are normally SNP voters. An area of strength for the SNP and weakness for Lab/Con prospects is the marked regional split in terms of second places. In the central belt, Labour can expect moderate swings to nudge them ahead of SNP incumbents, albeit with not a lot of Tory or Lib Dem voters to eat into. Motivation/apathy is a critical ingredient here and led to the surprise losses the SNP incurred in 2017. But a Labour resurgence stops in these former heartlands, they have literally no chance in the Borders, Dumfriesshire, Perthshire, Aberdeenshire and Highlands, which are all Tory leaning from the unionist side - indeed swings from Con to Lab in these constituencies serve to bolster the SNP by splitting the opposition. One or two Highland seats with a Lib Dem history might see them ‘win here’ from well off the pace with everything going their way, but would expect the SNP floor to be higher than the Tories in most areas, if it’s a race to the bottom of apathetic voters not keen on either party after over a decade in their respective centres of power. I can see that, but just for fun:
|
|
|
Post by michaelarden on Feb 17, 2023 13:59:49 GMT
An area of strength for the SNP and weakness for Lab/Con prospects is the marked regional split in terms of second places. In the central belt, Labour can expect moderate swings to nudge them ahead of SNP incumbents, albeit with not a lot of Tory or Lib Dem voters to eat into. Motivation/apathy is a critical ingredient here and led to the surprise losses the SNP incurred in 2017. But a Labour resurgence stops in these former heartlands, they have literally no chance in the Borders, Dumfriesshire, Perthshire, Aberdeenshire and Highlands, which are all Tory leaning from the unionist side - indeed swings from Con to Lab in these constituencies serve to bolster the SNP by splitting the opposition. One or two Highland seats with a Lib Dem history might see them ‘win here’ from well off the pace with everything going their way, but would expect the SNP floor to be higher than the Tories in most areas, if it’s a race to the bottom of apathetic voters not keen on either party after over a decade in their respective centres of power. I can see that, but just for fun: That seat model is ludicrous (and based on the old constituencies)
|
|
CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,248
|
Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 17, 2023 14:06:16 GMT
I can see that, but just for fun: That seat model is ludicrous (and based on the old constituencies) That is why I called it a bit of fun.
|
|
batman
Labour
Posts: 8,841
Member is Online
|
Post by batman on Feb 17, 2023 14:51:45 GMT
Even with this swing, a Labour gain in Dundee seems very improbable.
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 17, 2023 15:06:05 GMT
Actually, if you guess that around 35% is rock bottom for the SNP, this isn't as unfeasible as one might suppose, with former Labour-voting Tories returning to Labour and SNP voters also switching in a WM election to get the Tories out. I guess a lot of the DKs are normally SNP voters. An area of strength for the SNP and weakness for Lab/Con prospects is the marked regional split in terms of second places. In the central belt, Labour can expect moderate swings to nudge them ahead of SNP incumbents, albeit with not a lot of Tory or Lib Dem voters to eat into. Motivation/apathy is a critical ingredient here and led to the surprise losses the SNP incurred in 2017. But a Labour resurgence stops in these former heartlands, they have literally no chance in the Borders, Dumfriesshire, Perthshire, Aberdeenshire and Highlands, which are all Tory leaning from the unionist side - indeed swings from Con to Lab in these constituencies serve to bolster the SNP by splitting the opposition. One or two Highland seats with a Lib Dem history might see them ‘win here’ from well off the pace with everything going their way, but would expect the SNP floor to be higher than the Tories in most areas, if it’s a race to the bottom of apathetic voters not keen on either party after over a decade in their respective centres of power. I don't see that having no chance in areas where there's never been a chance and where few people live is actually much of a problem.* If the SNP and Labour are on level pegging, then on UNS Labour are back in contention in pretty much everywhere they used to hold bar Ayrshire, Aberdeen and Dundee. It doesn't particularly signify that their ceiling is nearer to 30 than 40 seats when anything above 10 would be a major accomplishment.
|
|
|
Post by mattbewilson on Feb 17, 2023 15:33:50 GMT
Fptp is a weird system
|
|
|
Post by afleitch on Feb 17, 2023 16:54:05 GMT
To be fair, it doesn't help to sit on a poll for ten days.
|
|
|
Post by No Offence Alan on Feb 17, 2023 17:07:16 GMT
To be fair, it doesn't help to sit on a poll for ten days. Changed days from 2004, during which there wasn't a single Scotland-wide poll published, by any company.
|
|
andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 8,882
Member is Online
|
Post by andrewp on Feb 17, 2023 19:05:33 GMT
|
|
CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,248
|
Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 17, 2023 20:02:35 GMT
Labour slowly moving regularly into the 30s is what is required. Gradual increases rather than peaks and troughs.
|
|
batman
Labour
Posts: 8,841
Member is Online
|
Post by batman on Feb 17, 2023 20:20:41 GMT
So how many Labour & how many SNP seats would there be on the basis of SNP 42% Lab 32% in Scotland do we reckon?
|
|
andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 8,882
Member is Online
|
Post by andrewp on Feb 17, 2023 20:33:05 GMT
So how many Labour & how many SNP seats would there be on the basis of SNP 42% Lab 32% in Scotland do we reckon? On a uniform swing, on current boundaries I make it that poll would lead to SNP 40 ( -8) Lab 12 (+11) LD 4 (-) Con 3 (-3) 11 Labour gains from the SNP and 3 SNP gains from the Conservatives
|
|
batman
Labour
Posts: 8,841
Member is Online
|
Post by batman on Feb 17, 2023 21:22:10 GMT
So, basically, with an additional swing of 3% on top of this a lot of extra seats are gained.
|
|
|
Post by graham on Feb 17, 2023 21:31:58 GMT
So how many Labour & how many SNP seats would there be on the basis of SNP 42% Lab 32% in Scotland do we reckon? On a uniform swing, on current boundaries I make it that poll would lead to SNP 40 ( -8) Lab 12 (+11) LD 4 (-) Con 3 (-3) 11 Labour gains from the SNP and 3 SNP gains from the Conservatives The poll represents a swing from SNP to Labour of 8.2% since 2019 and would imply 12 Labour gains to take the party to a total of 13.
|
|
|
Post by graham on Feb 17, 2023 21:34:38 GMT
So, basically, with an additional swing of 3% on top of this a lot of extra seats are gained. A swing of 11.2% would imply a further 8 gains from SNP - ie. 20 seats.
|
|
andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 8,882
Member is Online
|
Post by andrewp on Feb 17, 2023 21:40:38 GMT
So, basically, with an additional swing of 3% on top of this a lot of extra seats are gained. Yes, with another 3% on top of that, uniform swing gives SNP 28 (-20) Lab 22 (+21) LD 5( +1) Con 4 (-2)
|
|
batman
Labour
Posts: 8,841
Member is Online
|
Post by batman on Feb 18, 2023 8:39:40 GMT
OK, so the projection that the 2 & a bit per cent SNP lead over Labour would net Labour 30 seats is a bit odd.
|
|