Scottish polls

[batman]

I would be amazed if Reform got 7% in Scotland.

[Tony Otim]

Apr 10, 2024 15:56:47 GMT batman said:

I would be amazed if Reform got 7% in Scotland.

Likewise

[uthacalthing]

I suspect that when nominations close, they will have candidates in so few seats that 7% will no longer be mathematically possible

[grumpyguy]

Yougov have a serious problem with over-estimating Reform's support in Scotland. It's one reason why they consistently have a higher RUK figure than nay other pollster. Some of the individual Scottish constituency figures on their MRP poll were breath-taking. Dumfries and Galloway 10%? Outpolling the Tories in Glasgow North? Afleitch upthread is probably right when he says Yougov's allocation of ex-2019Tories is wrong for Scotland. SNP Brexit supporters (there were some, but not many) may have voted Tory in 2019 and will have
gone back to SNP now. Some will find they can't vote RUK because there's no candidate and some may vote Labour to defeat a Tory. Reallocating 5 out of RUK's 7 could produce a poll of Lab 34, Nat 33, Con 16 which is close to other pollsters. If the high Green figure is also at the expense of the Nats, then they and Lab are level pegging, which again is in line with other polls.

[ntyuk1707]

Norstat 9-12 April
Westminster VI:
LAB 32%
SNP 32% 
CON 16% 
LIB 9%

Holyrood Constituency VI:
SNP 35%
LAB 30%
CON 17%
LIB 10%

Holyrood List VI:
SNP 28%
LAB 25%
CON 19%
LIB 10%
GRN 9%
OTH 8%

Independence:
NO 51%
YES 44%
DK 5%

Net approval ratings:
Anas Sarwar -17
Keir Starmer -25
Humza Yousaf -32
Rishi Sunak -35
Douglas Ross -38

[stb12]

Decent result for No there

[ntyuk1707]

Apr 15, 2024 13:23:55 GMT stb12 said:

Decent result for No there

Highest share for No with Norstat/Panelbase since 2018. 

[uthacalthing]

Apr 15, 2024 13:14:01 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Net approval ratings:
Anas Sarwar -17
Keir Starmer -25
Humza Yousaf -32
Rishi Sunak -35
Douglas Ross -38

 I would swap Starmer and Sarwar but roughly where they ought to be.

All of them deep in negative territory, most of them ought to emigrate or change their names. Or both. 

[Sandy]

Pretty damning that Yousaf is only 3 points ahead of an evilll Torrrrrieeee Prime Minister.

[andrewp]

Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 34% (+1)
SNP: 33% (+2)
CON: 14% (=)
LDM: 8% (+1)
RFM: 5% (-2)
GRN: 4% (-1)

Via @yougov, 26-29 Apr.
Changes w/ 25 Mar - 2 Apr.

[ntyuk1707]

On Independence:

NO 54%
YES 46%

[batman]

I did think that Reform were too high in their previous poll, this looks more likely. Mind you, the SNP actually being up is pretty counter-intuitive given recent news. It would be interesting to see if polls in the next few days, if there are any, see a reversal of this.

[andrewp]

New Scottish poll from Savanta


🌹LAB 37% (+2)
🎗️SNP 33% (-2)
🌳CON 17% (-2)
🔶LD 7% (+1)
⬜️Other 6% (+1)

1,080 Scottish adults, 3-8 May

(change from 6-11 Oct '23)

[andrewp]

Redfield Wilton Scottish Poll

Scotland Westminster VI (8-9 May):

Labour 38% (+5)
SNP 31% (-1)
Conservative 14% (-3)
Lib Dem 8% (–)
Reform 4% (-1)
Green 4% (+2)
Alba 1% (-1)
Other 0% (–)

Changes +/- 6-7 April

[ntyuk1707]

On independence, both have NO on 52% and YES on 48%.

[threecrowns]

[iain]

May 20, 2024 14:03:39 GMT threecrowns said:

Such a result would be a total disaster for the SNP given their voteshare distribution. Could also see some unlikely Labour gains direct from the Tories I'd imagine.

[batman]

That would have seemed utterly impossible no more than a year ago. But it is no longer beyond the bounds of possibility. Of the remaining Tory seats, W Aberdeenshire/Kincardine and Banff & Buchan are traditionally weak areas for Labour (even though the latter arguably should not always be), but the others all have some Labour tradition, even if in the case of Moray it was only a fleeting sign of Labour strength in the peak Blair years. Obviously an extremely pleasing poll for Labour.

[Tony Otim]

Other than the 2 South West ones as outside chances, it's difficult to really see Labour having much chance of gaining directly from the Tories - there are a larger number of seats however where they could really eat into both the Conservative and SNP votes to come from 3rd to win...

[graham]

This shows a bigger polling lead for Labour than the party managed in Scotland in October 1974 - and a higher vote share for Westminster. It represents a swing from SNP of 18.2% since 2019 and would imply 31 Labour gains taking the party to 32 seats there. I suspect that Labour could now do better than that and end up in the 35 - 40 seat range having gained seats from 3rd and 4th place. Jo Swinson's successor seat - Dunbartonshire Mid - could now be a LD/Labour battle!