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Post by andrewp on Feb 18, 2023 9:22:19 GMT
OK, so the projection that the 2 & a bit per cent SNP lead over Labour would net Labour 30 seats is a bit odd. I just had a play with the proposed new boundaries for the 57 seats in Scotland. The notionals give SNP 48, Con 6, LD 2, Lab 1 Working on percentages of SNP 38, Lab 36, Con 17, LD 6, which is about a 12% swing from SNP to Lab, on a uniform swing I get SNP 24 (-24) Lab 24 (+23) Con 6 (-) LD 3 (+1)
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Feb 18, 2023 9:48:06 GMT
OK, so the projection that the 2 & a bit per cent SNP lead over Labour would net Labour 30 seats is a bit odd. I just had a play with the proposed new boundaries for the 57 seats in Scotland. The notionals give SNP 48, Con 6, LD 2, Lab 1 Working on percentages of SNP 38, Lab 36, Con 17, LD 6, which is about a 12% swing from SNP to Lab, on a uniform swing I get SNP 24 (-24) Lab 24 (+23) Con 6 (-) LD 3 (+1) interesting, so a pro Lab bias over the SNP in terms of the electoral system?
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Post by batman on Feb 18, 2023 10:08:41 GMT
yes, that's not that surprising, since the SNP vote is fairly evenly spread throughout Scotland (there are at the absolute max only 2 constituencies where the SNP is not competitive), whereas Labour's vote is heavily concentrated in the central belt, plus Na h'Eileanan an Iar (which I very nearly managed to spell right without looking it up lol)
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Feb 18, 2023 10:12:28 GMT
interesting, so a pro Lab bias over the SNP in terms of the electoral system? The SNP vote tends to be spread fairly evenly, while the unionist parties have a more geographically concentrated vote, which means the SNP can win the vast majority of seats on a minority of the vote, but if a party starts to approach their level of support then they suddenly start haemorrhaging seats. IIRC, UNS resulting in a 3 way tie on vote share in 2017 would have seen the SNP come a distant 3rd in seat numbers,
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Post by robert1 on Feb 18, 2023 10:50:00 GMT
How long before there is discussion about the fall (or otherwise) of the 'Tartan Wall'?
BTW there are 3 Scottish council by-elections in quick succession. Aberdeen this coming Thursday, followed by Edinburgh and Stirling in mid-March. None in what might be viewed as SNP/Lab territory but they could be interesting nonetheless.
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Post by michaelarden on Feb 18, 2023 11:21:59 GMT
yes, that's not that surprising, since the SNP vote is fairly evenly spread throughout Scotland (there are at the absolute max only 2 constituencies where the SNP is not competitive), whereas Labour's vote is heavily concentrated in the central belt, plus Na h'Eileanan an Iar (which I very nearly managed to spell right without looking it up lol) Except in Na h'Eileanan an Iar candidates matter more than party labels and unless McNeil is suddenly discovered shopping on a Sunday or similar he should be OK regardless.
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Feb 18, 2023 11:22:04 GMT
interesting, so a pro Lab bias over the SNP in terms of the electoral system? The SNP vote tends to be spread fairly evenly, while the unionist parties have a more geographically concentrated vote, which means the SNP can win the vast majority of seats on a minority of the vote, but if a party starts to approach their level of support then they suddenly start haemorrhaging seats. IIRC, UNS resulting in a 3 way tie on vote share in 2017 would have seen the SNP come a distant 3rd in seat numbers, great point, it's why Alliance could have started to win seats in leaps and bounds if they'd got to the 35/40% level in the 1980s
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Post by Clark on Feb 18, 2023 12:33:46 GMT
Sturgeon stepping down could end up being the difference between Labour getting a majority at the next election or not !
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Feb 18, 2023 13:59:39 GMT
Sturgeon stepping down could end up being the difference between Labour getting a majority at the next election or not ! Would be fitting after her decision to go all in on a 2nd independence referendum in 2017 helped make the difference between there being a Parliamentary majority for a Conservative government and an anti-Conservative majority.
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Post by batman on Feb 18, 2023 14:57:50 GMT
yes, that's not that surprising, since the SNP vote is fairly evenly spread throughout Scotland (there are at the absolute max only 2 constituencies where the SNP is not competitive), whereas Labour's vote is heavily concentrated in the central belt, plus Na h'Eileanan an Iar (which I very nearly managed to spell right without looking it up lol) Except in Na h'Eileanan an Iar candidates matter more than party labels and unless McNeil is suddenly discovered shopping on a Sunday or similar he should be OK regardless. not sure I agree with that. It's been an SNP-Labour contest since Donnie Stewart won in 1970, with other parties never in contention, and when it has changed hands it has not noticeably bucked any Scotland-wide trends.
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Post by afleitch on Feb 18, 2023 19:09:10 GMT
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xenon
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Post by xenon on Feb 18, 2023 22:09:49 GMT
Will be interesting to see where the polls trend over the coming weeks – either staying pretty stationary (Survation) or suggesting large swings away from the SNP (YouGov). I would imagine it will be somewhere between the two.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 19, 2023 8:40:40 GMT
Will be interesting to see where the polls trend over the coming weeks – either staying pretty stationary (Survation) or suggesting large swings away from the SNP (YouGov). I would imagine it will be somewhere between the two. The YouGov does seem to be the outlier although the overall trend does seem to be slow advance for Labour.
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Post by afleitch on Feb 19, 2023 10:23:40 GMT
Will be interesting to see where the polls trend over the coming weeks – either staying pretty stationary (Survation) or suggesting large swings away from the SNP (YouGov). I would imagine it will be somewhere between the two. The YouGov does seem to be the outlier although the overall trend does seem to be slow advance for Labour. The YouGov poll was extracted from the topline figures by the commissioner. Not by YouGov. In either event, I think it's clear it's an outlier. The resignation of Sturgeon has had no real effect on polling. The leadership contest and results of that may. But the premature 'hay making' by those who should know better about why people vote SNP has been fun.
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 19, 2023 10:50:30 GMT
The YouGov does seem to be the outlier although the overall trend does seem to be slow advance for Labour. The YouGov poll was extracted from the topline figures by the commissioner. Not by YouGov. In either event, I think it's clear it's an outlier. The resignation of Sturgeon has had no real effect on polling. The leadership contest and results of that may. But the premature 'hay making' by those who should know better about why people vote SNP has been fun. It's not really possible at this stage to say how Stugeon's resignation will play out in polling for the SNP . It is, as someone once said "too early to tell".
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Post by danpoulter on Feb 19, 2023 11:15:16 GMT
Yougov is a clear outlier surely. The savanta comres poll of Labour 10% behind the SNP is probably where things really are.
My expectation though is Labour will get between 10-20 seats in Scotland at the GE (20 seats is probably the limit for Labour if they win most of their plausible stretch targets like, Paisley, Dunfermline, East Kilbride, Western Isles) although I still strongly favour SNP+Greens to get a mjaority at the next holyrood election.
There aren't really any great options for the SNP though as even Angus Robertson probably has skeletons in his closet and Edinburgh Central is not a particularly safe seat IMHO and is possibly even a Holyrood LD target now.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 19, 2023 11:58:28 GMT
Its far from impossible that latest polling indicates a post-resignation "glow" for Sturgeon and the SNP - this is far from an unknown phenomenon, but equally it is one that tends to be fairly short lived. Labour will likely be satisfied to have gone up one in the Survation poll despite this.
Longer term, its hard to see any successor having NS's remarkably wide appeal - that doesn't alone doom the Nats but it does just in itself make things more interesting.
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Post by michaelarden on Feb 19, 2023 12:16:21 GMT
Yougov is a clear outlier surely. The savanta comres poll of Labour 10% behind the SNP is probably where things really are. My expectation though is Labour will get between 10-20 seats in Scotland at the GE (20 seats is probably the limit for Labour if they win most of their plausible stretch targets like, Paisley, Dunfermline, East Kilbride, Western Isles) although I still strongly favour SNP+Greens to get a mjaority at the next holyrood election. There aren't really any great options for the SNP though as even Angus Robertson probably has skeletons in his closet and Edinburgh Central is not a particularly safe seat IMHO and is possibly even a Holyrood LD target now. I think 20 would be exceptionally generous for Labour - I suspect they're currently at the top of their polling range and will drop back as the GE approaches - just as Blair did. Labour getting 42% UK wide is probably equivalent to low 30s north of the border and provided the SNP don't implode post Sturgeon (and there is no reason to suggest the fundamental constitutional issue driving opinion has changed) then that's a comfortable 10+% lead. There's absolutely no evidence the Lib Dems are in the race for the Edinburgh Central - Robertson has the highest numerical majority there ever and the second highest percentage majority since Sarah Boyack in 1999 and coming from just 6% and fifth place it's simply wishful thinking to suggest they are contenders next time.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 19, 2023 12:28:12 GMT
Polling suggests that a significant number of SNP voters *might* vote Labour in the right circumstances (IIRC in one survey about 40% put their chances of doing so at 5 or over on a scale of 1-10 with the latter most likely) That doesn't guarantee anything, but does suggest their "ceiling" might be higher than post-2014 election results imply.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Feb 19, 2023 12:31:59 GMT
Polling suggests that a significant number of SNP voters *might* vote Labour in the right circumstances (IIRC about 40% put their chances of doing so at 5 or over on a scale of 1-10 with the latter most likely) That doesn't guarantee anything, but does suggest their "ceiling" might be higher than post-2014 election results suggest. It also suggests that, contrary to the prevailing narrative, many of these voters switched to the SNP because they actually like the SNP rather complete alienation from Labour. The loss of a relatively popular first minister may be the catalyst for many of these voters to slowly return to Labour.
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