CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,730
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Post by CatholicLeft on May 20, 2024 16:30:48 GMT
John Curtice suggests;
Lab:35
SNP:11
Con: 6
LD: 5
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,345
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Post by graham on May 20, 2024 17:08:29 GMT
John Curtice suggests; Lab:35 SNP:11 Con: 6 LD: 5 Some of those SNP seats would be very tight and Labour would be close to the Tories in both Dumfieshire seats. |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on May 20, 2024 17:38:45 GMT
YouGov 13-17 May poll independence figures:
NO 55%
YES 45%
Sub-samples are rather meaningless for these polls but it puts Yes & No tied among 16-24 age bracket.
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Post by yellowfox on May 20, 2024 17:41:05 GMT
At this point is the SNP winning 0 seats (or at least, fewer than the DUP and SF) not being severely underpriced?
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Post by ntyuk1707 on May 20, 2024 17:59:19 GMT
At this point is the SNP winning 0 seats (or at least, fewer than the DUP and SF) not being severely underpriced? There are some seats which Labour will never win! As such, the Conservatives would need to have a fairly strong increase in the polls to pick up Angus & Perthshire Glens and Argyll, Bute & South Lochaber from the SNP. The Liberal Democrats or Labour would need to perform very strongly in Inverness-shire. And Labour would need to pick-up Arbroath & Broughty Ferry, a constituency with very few Labour-inclined areas even at the best of times. |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on May 20, 2024 18:02:34 GMT
Arbroath & Broughty Ferry is a bit of a frankenstein's monster as it covers areas which are mostly SNP-voting but with the Conservatives being semi-marginal (Broughty Ferry, Monifieth, Carnoustie, Arbroath) but also the northeastern-most council estates of Dundee where the Conservatives polled 8% at the 2022 local elections. Hard seat for the SNP to lose, or indeed the Conservatives or Labour to gain.
The former Dundee East seat did not cover Arbroath, but instead more of the city proper where Labour were semi-marginal behind the SNP (and would be in contention on recent polling).
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Post by johnloony on May 20, 2024 18:12:19 GMT
At this point is the SNP winning 0 seats (or at least, fewer than the DUP and SF) not being severely underpriced? The fun result was when the SNP lost all (i.e. both) of its seats in the 1987 general election. The spoilsport bit of it was that a few hours later it won 3 new seats instead. |
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msc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 910 
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Post by msc on May 21, 2024 6:07:53 GMT
Personally I think there's greater chance (read: very slim) of 0 Scottish Tory MPs than 0 SNP ones. Indy ref 2 is DOA whereas Sunak is still there to give an electoral kicking to.
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Post by dizz on May 21, 2024 6:48:05 GMT
Where’s that nice fella that always says that this is the biggest lead of X party since Y in Scotland as it would be nice to know that this time too. 👂 |
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Post by michaelarden on May 21, 2024 8:37:29 GMT
Personally I think there's greater chance (read: very slim) of 0 Scottish Tory MPs than 0 SNP ones. Indy ref 2 is DOA whereas Sunak is still there to give an electoral kicking to. I think the chance of there being zero Tory MPs in Scotland is higher than that. It's a general election and the dynamic will be about giving the Tories a good kicking for being a truly terrible and incompetent government. They're polling 12-15% less than half what the SNP are polling - so unless the dynamic changes I would expect all 6 Tory seats to go SNP (despite their problems and record of running a different government). |
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,384
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Post by stb12 on May 21, 2024 8:49:56 GMT
Personally I think there's greater chance (read: very slim) of 0 Scottish Tory MPs than 0 SNP ones. Indy ref 2 is DOA whereas Sunak is still there to give an electoral kicking to. I think the chance of there being zero Tory MPs in Scotland is higher than that. It's a general election and the dynamic will be about giving the Tories a good kicking for being a truly terrible and incompetent government. They're polling 12-15% less than half what the SNP are polling - so unless the dynamic changes I would expect all 6 Tory seats to go SNP (despite their problems and record of running a different government). The dynamic is a bit different from 1997, due to devolution the Scottish Tories have a degree of separation and independence from the UK government and wider party. That’s not to say it will be enough to see them do brilliantly at all especially under FPTP but I think it could/should see them avoid a total wipeout Certainly in places like the Borders which are amongst the most anti-independence parts of the country voters there will be aware of what the two choices are from a tactical perspective |
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 744
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Post by Clark on May 21, 2024 9:13:05 GMT
I think the Tories will do 'okay' in Scotland. They've polled quite well in recent council by-elections.
And I'm still not sure why the Tories did so well in Scotland in the 2017 General Election - anyone know the reason why?
Ruth Davidson was a popular leader for them (but shouldn't be a factor in a GE) - this is the only reason I can think ok - a bit of split in the left wing vote too...
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Post by adlai52 on May 21, 2024 10:39:13 GMT
I think the Tories will do 'okay' in Scotland. They've polled quite well in recent council by-elections. And I'm still not sure why the Tories did so well in Scotland in the 2017 General Election - anyone know the reason why? Ruth Davidson was a popular leader for them (but shouldn't be a factor in a GE) - this is the only reason I can think ok - a bit of split in the left wing vote too... Combination of a strong vote for Ruth Davidson - who really was the face of the anti-SNP/Unionist vote - and a strong unionist tactical vote in response to the SNP sweep in 2015 that broke heavily for the Scots Tories? |
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Post by michaelarden on May 21, 2024 10:44:39 GMT
The dynamic is a bit different from 1997, due to devolution the Scottish Tories have a degree of separation and independence from the UK government and wider party. That’s not to say it will be enough to see them do brilliantly at all especially under FPTP but I think it could/should see them avoid a total wipeout Certainly in places like the Borders which are amongst the most anti-independence parts of the country voters there will be aware of what the two choices are from a tactical perspective If the Scottish Lib Dems weren't such Scottish Conservative and Unionist gimps they ought to have a chance with the impending Tory disaster to come back in what was a traditional area of strength for them. |
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,384
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Post by stb12 on May 21, 2024 10:48:54 GMT
Also Nicola Sturgeon put in a formal Section 30 order request for another referendum in March 2017, the timing of the snap election just three months later was pretty ideal for an anti-independence backlash
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,384
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Post by stb12 on May 21, 2024 10:55:39 GMT
The dynamic is a bit different from 1997, due to devolution the Scottish Tories have a degree of separation and independence from the UK government and wider party. That’s not to say it will be enough to see them do brilliantly at all especially under FPTP but I think it could/should see them avoid a total wipeout Certainly in places like the Borders which are amongst the most anti-independence parts of the country voters there will be aware of what the two choices are from a tactical perspective If the Scottish Lib Dems weren't such Scottish Conservative and Unionist gimps they ought to have a chance with the impending Tory disaster to come back in what was a traditional area of strength for them. Well maybe but like a lot of areas across the UK post coalition it’s quite a long way back especially in FPTP constituencies and resources need to be targeted. Their rebuilding would be best started by getting a Lib Dem list MSP or two back in the South region at the next Holyrood election |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on May 21, 2024 12:41:50 GMT
I think the Tories will do 'okay' in Scotland. They've polled quite well in recent council by-elections. And I'm still not sure why the Tories did so well in Scotland in the 2017 General Election - anyone know the reason why? Ruth Davidson was a popular leader for them (but shouldn't be a factor in a GE) - this is the only reason I can think ok - a bit of split in the left wing vote too... Combination of a strong vote for Ruth Davidson - who really was the face of the anti-SNP/Unionist vote - and a strong unionist tactical vote in response to the SNP sweep in 2015 that broke heavily for the Scots Tories? Jeremy Corbyn and his support for another Scottish independence referendum was also successfully used by Ruth Davidson to gain the support of would-be Labour voters. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 21, 2024 18:06:51 GMT
What strikes me is how close the scores for the main four parties are compared to the moment immediately before the Indy Ref.
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 744
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Post by Clark on May 21, 2024 19:18:36 GMT
Swinney was never going to get a bounce. He's been leader before and the SNP did badly during his reign back then too. Appointing him leader to replace Yousef made no sense.
It was almost like a "oh he's experienced within the SNP and available so he'll do..."
Like her or not, Sturgeon was a leader with appeal and this showed with her electoral successes although I accept Labour were going through a difficult spell at the time.
The SNP were always going to be on a downward trend once she was gone and so it's proved.
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Post by finsobruce on May 21, 2024 19:35:08 GMT
Swinney was never going to get a bounce. He's been leader before and the SNP did badly during his reign back then too. Appointing him leader to replace Yousef made no sense. It was almost like a "oh he's experienced within the SNP and available so he'll do..." Like her or not, Sturgeon was a leader with appeal and this showed with her electoral successes although I accept Labour were going through a difficult spell at the time. The SNP were always going to be on a downward trend once she was gone and so it's proved. It did seem that people were suffering from a collective amnesia about his previous stint, which wasn't exactly a roaring success. I think half the problem then, as now, was that he didn't really seem to want the job (which is understandable). |
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