clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Nov 17, 2022 0:20:06 GMT
www.ipsos.com/en-uk/scots-split-over-impact-independence-scotlands-economy-ipsos-uk-knowledgepanelOverall, if Scotland leaves the United Kingdom and becomes an independent country, do you think this will make Scotland's economy better off, worse off, or would it make no difference? [responses by UK nation]- England: Better 18%; No diff 12%; Worse 58%; DK 12%
- Wales: Better 23%; No diff 14%; Worse 50%; DK 13%
- NI: Better 28%; No diff 13%; Worse 45%; DK 14%
- Scotland: Better 43%; No diff 10%; Worse 43%; DK 4%
If a referendum were held in Scotland on its constitutional future, would you personally prefer Scotland to vote for or against leaving the UK and becoming an independent country? [Scottish responses]- 50% - I would prefer Scotland to vote for leaving the UK and becoming an independent country
- 43% - I would prefer Scotland to vote against leaving the UK and becoming an independent country
- 4% - Don't mind either way
- 2% - Don't know
This is within with Ipsos Mori's typical independence polling range since the last UK general election.
And if Scotland leaves the UK and becomes an independent country, do you think that this will make the economies of England, Wales and Northern Ireland better off, worse off, or would it make no difference? [responses by UK nation]- England: Better 21%; No diff 31%; Worse 35%; DK 12%
- Wales: Better 15%; No diff 35%; Worse 38%; DK 12%
- NI: Better 12%; No diff 36%; Worse 41%; DK 11%
- Scotland: Better 12%; No diff 34%; Worse 45%; DK 9%
First poll I can remember where voters in the rUK believe their economy would be worse off with Scotland becoming independent.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Dec 2, 2022 19:13:06 GMT
Some extra questions about who should be allowed to vote in the event of an independence referendum.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,493
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Post by johng on Dec 7, 2022 12:16:11 GMT
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Dec 7, 2022 12:51:52 GMT
Interesting the Westminster VI is heading in a different direction to the Redfield poll: linkSNP 51% (+7 compared with May 2022) Lab 25% (+2) Con 13% (-6) LDm 6% (-4) Grn 3% (nc) Oth 2% (nc) Ipsos are the only regular pollster in Scotland to poll via telephone - so that could explain the differences. Edit - further VIs: As you may know, the UK Supreme Court has ruled that the Scottish Parliament cannot hold another independence referendum without the UK Government's agreement. In this case, Nicola Sturgeon has said that the SNP will treat the next UK General Election as a ‘de facto’ referendum, campaigning on the single issue of independence. In this scenario, how would you vote in a General Election?SNP 53% (+2 on standard VI question) Lab 24% (-1) Con 13% (nc) LDm 6% (nc) Grn 2% (-1) Oth 2% (nc) Holyrood VISNP 50%/43% (-2/nc on Nov 2021) Lab 24%/21% (+7/+6) Con 14%/14% (-5/-6) LDm 7%/6% (+2/nc) Grn 3%/13% (nc/+1) Oth 3%/3% (-1/-1)
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Post by afleitch on Dec 7, 2022 17:16:28 GMT
I'm suprised since the ruling, there haven't been more polls tbh.
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Post by afleitch on Dec 11, 2022 12:36:20 GMT
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Post by stb12 on Dec 11, 2022 13:21:19 GMT
Like right after the Brexit referendum it looks like independence is having an initial uptick after the Supreme Court decision, that becoming consistent is another matter
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Post by afleitch on Dec 11, 2022 13:28:33 GMT
Like right after the Brexit referendum it looks like independence is having an initial uptick after the Supreme Court decision, that becoming consistent is another matter On balance, it is more than likely that it was the Trussterfuck. We had a Yes lead of 7 and a tie before the Court decision. The last run of Yes leads was from the summer of COVID to early 2021. When the UK is in crisis, it seems to push support for independence up. And the UK in crisis is starting to become a regular theme. I'm not saying that in jest; that's what decline does to voters psychologically.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Dec 11, 2022 14:34:09 GMT
Like right after the Brexit referendum it looks like independence is having an initial uptick after the Supreme Court decision, that becoming consistent is another matter On balance, it is more than likely that it was the Trussterfuck. We had a Yes lead of 7 and a tie before the Court decision. The last run of Yes leads was from the summer of COVID to early 2021. When the UK is in crisis, it seems to push support for independence up. And the UK in crisis is starting to become a regular theme. I'm not saying that in jest; that's what decline does to voters psychologically. IIRC, polling from around the Edinburgh Agreement in 2012 suggested around a third of people in Scotland could vote Yes or No, but over 75% of them said their heart said yes while their head thought it was too risky (if all those voted Yes it would've been ~60% in favour). Crises may reduce the perceived level of risk associated with independence in those who could vote either way, hence the increase in support during crises.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Dec 13, 2022 14:07:16 GMT
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Dec 15, 2022 14:21:21 GMT
YouGov/Times (6-9 Dec) Westminster SNP 43 (-2 on 30 Sep-4 Oct poll) Lab 29 (-2) Con 14 (+2) LDm 6 (-1) Grn 4 (+1) RUK 3 (+2) Oth 1 (nc)
Holyrood constituency SNP 50 (+1) Lab 25 (-1) Con 13 (nc) LDm 7 (-1) Grn 2 (nc) Oth 2 (nc)
Holyrood list SNP 40 (+2) Lab 24 (nc) Con 13 (-1) Grn 11 (-1) LDm 6 (-2) Alba 3 (+2) RUK 2 (+1) AFU 0 (-1) UKIP 0 (nc) Oth 1 (+1)
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Post by graham on Dec 15, 2022 17:20:51 GMT
YouGov/Times (6-9 Dec)WestminsterSNP 43 (-2 on 30 Sep-4 Oct poll) Lab 29 (-2) Con 14 (+2) LDm 6 (-1) Grn 4 (+1) RUK 3 (+2) Oth 1 (nc) Holyrood constituencySNP 50 (+1) Lab 25 (-1) Con 13 (nc) LDm 7 (-1) Grn 2 (nc) Oth 2 (nc) Holyrood listSNP 40 (+2) Lab 24 (nc) Con 13 (-1) Grn 11 (-1) LDm 6 (-2) Alba 3 (+2) RUK 2 (+1) AFU 0 (-1) UKIP 0 (nc) Oth 1 (+1) The Westminster Voting Intention figures show a swing from SNP to Labour of 6.2% relative to 2019 - and imply 6 Labour gains at SNP expense.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Dec 15, 2022 20:07:07 GMT
YouGov/Times (6-9 Dec)WestminsterSNP 43 (-2 on 30 Sep-4 Oct poll) Lab 29 (-2) Con 14 (+2) LDm 6 (-1) Grn 4 (+1) RUK 3 (+2) Oth 1 (nc) Holyrood constituencySNP 50 (+1) Lab 25 (-1) Con 13 (nc) LDm 7 (-1) Grn 2 (nc) Oth 2 (nc) Holyrood listSNP 40 (+2) Lab 24 (nc) Con 13 (-1) Grn 11 (-1) LDm 6 (-2) Alba 3 (+2) RUK 2 (+1) AFU 0 (-1) UKIP 0 (nc) Oth 1 (+1) The Westminster Voting Intention figures show a swing from SNP to Labour of 6.2% relative to 2019 - and imply 6 Labour gains at SNP expense. Though the poll also implies SNP gains from Con (and maybe from LD too).
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,715
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Post by iain on Dec 17, 2022 21:28:52 GMT
Crazy numbers here:
And a pretty damning indictment of unionist politicians’ ability to communicate their position.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,523
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Post by Khunanup on Dec 17, 2022 21:42:59 GMT
Crazy numbers here: And a pretty damning indictment of unionist politicians’ ability to communicate their position. Letting the Nats brand all of them as 'Unionists' is one of the problems. Non-Nationalist is a very different kettle of fish from being a Unionist. If only there was a party platform of a federal UK... 🤔
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Dec 17, 2022 21:51:19 GMT
The problem is the Scots as usual wanting to have their cake and eat it.
Sorry, once you leave, you leave and can expect nothing from the nations left in the UK, its an all or nothing deal.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Dec 18, 2022 0:08:43 GMT
The problem is the Scots as usual wanting to have their cake and eat it. Sorry, once you leave, you leave and can expect nothing from the nations left in the UK, its an all or nothing deal. I'm not so sure it's an all or nothing deal. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar situation between the UK and an independent Scotland as what we currently see between the UK and Ireland. Things like Scottish/British citizens being treated as non-foreign in each others country, with co-operation on intelligence and defence, but clearly separate citizenship, pension schemes, etc. No border checks would be preferable, but would be very unlikely if Scotland is in the EU/Customs Union and England isn't. The question did ask "whatever happens constitutionally, what elements of the UK today would you like Scotland to retain?", as opposed to something like "what would not having access to in an independent Scotland make you vote against independence?". I interpret the question asked to include what things would you like Scotland to keep, including if Scotland is part of the UK. Of course, we don't have the flip side of the question: "what potential aspects of an independent Scotland would you like?", nor is there data for what people actual consider an important matter: 65% of people may prefer a shared counter-terrorism service, for example, but if very few people think it's important either way it won't affect people's opinion of independence.
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Dec 18, 2022 6:48:48 GMT
The problem is the Scots as usual wanting to have their cake and eat it. Sorry, once you leave, you leave and can expect nothing from the nations left in the UK, its an all or nothing deal. I'm not so sure it's an all or nothing deal. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar situation between the UK and an independent Scotland as what we currently see between the UK and Ireland. Things like Scottish/British citizens being treated as non-foreign in each others country, with co-operation on intelligence and defence, but clearly separate citizenship, pension schemes, etc. No border checks would be preferable, but would be very unlikely if Scotland is in the EU/Customs Union and England isn't. The question did ask "whatever happens constitutionally, what elements of the UK today would you like Scotland to retain?", as opposed to something like "what would not having access to in an independent Scotland make you vote against independence?". I interpret the question asked to include what things would you like Scotland to keep, including if Scotland is part of the UK. Of course, we don't have the flip side of the question: "what potential aspects of an independent Scotland would you like?", nor is there data for what people actual consider an important matter: 65% of people may prefer a shared counter-terrorism service, for example, but if very few people think it's important either way it won't affect people's opinion of independence. I accept that the questions were put in the way you said. On Scottish independence, it is initially all or nothing, unless negotiated otherwise, which may have a better way fo me to put it.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Dec 22, 2022 14:42:28 GMT
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DrW
Conservative
Posts: 545
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Post by DrW on Dec 22, 2022 16:06:26 GMT
I think you are posting an old poll. Funnily enough though the poll Savanta released the other day had quite similar figures but with No ahead by one point, and the SNP lower.
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