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Post by afleitch on Oct 8, 2022 15:09:07 GMT
Worth noting with YouGov a very sharp reversion to older voting patterns amongst the over-65s.
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Post by mattbewilson on Oct 8, 2022 15:17:15 GMT
We are still seeing the greens on a decent vote so maybe there's a contingent of voters who were Labour 2019 but now opt for an alternative on the left. 1/10 doesn't seem huge when you think that's probably the same ratio voters who identify as on the left in the UK
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 8, 2022 16:25:00 GMT
We are still seeing the greens on a decent vote so maybe there's a contingent of voters who were Labour 2019 but now opt for an alternative on the left. 1/10 doesn't seem huge when you think that's probably the same ratio voters who identify as on the left in the UK For Westminster, the Greens do pick up a decent vote from each from Labour, the Lib Dems, the SNP and other parties/new voters. On the Holyrood list, they pick up nearly one in five SNP constituency voters, doing especially well among younger voters. Worth noting with YouGov a very sharp reversion to older voting patterns amongst the over-65s. Labour's age profile in Scotland is the reverse of that in England and Wales - where they do better among younger voters. In Scotland, the SNP command around 54% of the under 50 vote for Westminster and support for the union is around a third among under 50s (including undecided voters).
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Oct 10, 2022 0:20:03 GMT
These movements are considerable and potentially have greater significance than the raw numbers suggest, given the propensity for coalesced anti-SNP voting across the Tory/Labour/Lib Dem regions. 2017 demonstrated that the electorate is astute in identifying the candidate to rally round and crucially the soft edge of the SNP leaning vote after a decade in power, either switching when there’s a big decision to be made at Westminster or staying at home. Low double digit shifts from SNP to Labour in the Glasgow/West regions have the potential for doubling or more with block shifts of former Tory or Lib Dem voters who are most likely to turn out. Lots can and will happen from now to then, regardless of a Tory wipeout to the direct benefit of the SNP, the groundwork for double digit losses to Labour and Lib Dems remains. I strongly doubt there would by any unionist strategic voting for a Conservative at the moment, through given the current popularity of Truss in Scotland.
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Post by stb12 on Oct 10, 2022 8:44:27 GMT
These movements are considerable and potentially have greater significance than the raw numbers suggest, given the propensity for coalesced anti-SNP voting across the Tory/Labour/Lib Dem regions. 2017 demonstrated that the electorate is astute in identifying the candidate to rally round and crucially the soft edge of the SNP leaning vote after a decade in power, either switching when there’s a big decision to be made at Westminster or staying at home. Low double digit shifts from SNP to Labour in the Glasgow/West regions have the potential for doubling or more with block shifts of former Tory or Lib Dem voters who are most likely to turn out. Lots can and will happen from now to then, regardless of a Tory wipeout to the direct benefit of the SNP, the groundwork for double digit losses to Labour and Lib Dems remains. I strongly doubt there would by any unionist strategic voting for a Conservative at the moment, through given the current popularity of Truss in Scotland. Boris Johnson was never popular in Scotland but that tactical voting was still evident If the SNP really go through with their plan to try and make the next general election a defacto referendum then it leaves people with some decisions to make
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iain
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Post by iain on Oct 10, 2022 9:27:59 GMT
These movements are considerable and potentially have greater significance than the raw numbers suggest, given the propensity for coalesced anti-SNP voting across the Tory/Labour/Lib Dem regions. 2017 demonstrated that the electorate is astute in identifying the candidate to rally round and crucially the soft edge of the SNP leaning vote after a decade in power, either switching when there’s a big decision to be made at Westminster or staying at home. Low double digit shifts from SNP to Labour in the Glasgow/West regions have the potential for doubling or more with block shifts of former Tory or Lib Dem voters who are most likely to turn out. Lots can and will happen from now to then, regardless of a Tory wipeout to the direct benefit of the SNP, the groundwork for double digit losses to Labour and Lib Dems remains. I strongly doubt there would by any unionist strategic voting for a Conservative at the moment, through given the current popularity of Truss in Scotland. It is highly likely that we will see unionist tactical voting for Conservatives, but this is likely to be swamped by anti-Tory tactical voting for the SNP. This was very much the pattern we saw in 2019 - Argyll & Bute is a very clear example, but it will also have been the case in seats like Stirling where the Conservative vote dropped.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 10, 2022 10:29:12 GMT
The people switching from Conservative to Labour may show a moderate inclination to tactically vote Conservative, although it should be noted that they didn’t seem to have much tactical understanding in 2017 when the Conservatives came a close 3rd in many constituencies that Labour narrowly lost to the SNP. If a party looks like it is doing well generally then it’s harder to get its new voters to switch tactically.
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 13, 2022 10:51:45 GMT
Panelbase/Sunday Times (5-7 Oct) Westminster VI SNP 45 (+1 on Aug) Lab 30 (+7) Con 15 (-5) LDm 5 (-3)
Only VI poll, but Panelbase do have a habit of releasing other VIs at a later time.
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Post by afleitch on Oct 13, 2022 14:05:06 GMT
Panelbase/Sunday Times (5-7 Oct)Westminster VISNP 45 (+1 on Aug) Lab 30 (+7) Con 15 (-5) LDm 5 (-3) Only VI poll, but Panelbase do have a habit of releasing other VIs at a later time. Consistent again with other polls. rUK polls are largely in agreement with each other too which is an indication that there's genuine movement.
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Post by michaelarden on Oct 13, 2022 14:23:54 GMT
Panelbase/Sunday Times (5-7 Oct)Westminster VISNP 45 (+1 on Aug) Lab 30 (+7) Con 15 (-5) LDm 5 (-3) Only VI poll, but Panelbase do have a habit of releasing other VIs at a later time. What would that mean in seat terms?
SNP 50, Lab 7, Lib Dem 2?
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 13, 2022 15:39:58 GMT
Panelbase/Sunday Times (5-7 Oct)Westminster VISNP 45 (+1 on Aug) Lab 30 (+7) Con 15 (-5) LDm 5 (-3) Only VI poll, but Panelbase do have a habit of releasing other VIs at a later time. What would that mean in seat terms?
SNP 50, Lab 7, Lib Dem 2?
It would roughly be that, aye.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 14, 2022 9:32:04 GMT
What would that mean in seat terms?
SNP 50, Lab 7, Lib Dem 2?
It would roughly be that, aye. In practice it would likely mean a few more seats than that for both Labour and LibDems.
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 14, 2022 10:10:54 GMT
It would roughly be that, aye. In practice it would likely mean a few more seats than that for both Labour and LibDems. Not sure about the Lib Dems when they're on 5% - as they only have about six seats where they have more than 15% of the vote. Of course, come an election, the Lib Dems will probably gain national vote share and would solidify their support in their strongest areas.
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 15, 2022 18:18:35 GMT
Panelbase/Alba (7-11 Oct) Westminster VI SNP 42 (-3 on 5-7 Oct) Lab 30 (nc) Con 16 (+1) LDm 6 (+1) Grn 2 (*) Alba 2 (*)
Holyrood Constituency VI SNP 45 (-2 on 17-19 Aug) Lab 28 (+6) Con 15 (-2) LDm 6 (-3) Grn 3 (nc) Alba 3 (*)
Holyrood List VI SNP 37 (-4 on 17-19 Aug) Lab 26 (+4) Con 17 (-2) Grn 9 (+1) LDm 7 (nc) Alba 4 (*)
Independence VI Yes 49 (nc) No 51 (nc)
*The election VIs aren't necessarily directly comparable to previous Panelbase polls due to the inclusion of Alba as an option, on all three election polls, and the Greens for the Westminster VI question.
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 16, 2022 9:34:50 GMT
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 16, 2022 10:16:21 GMT
So the whole poll is basically Alba trying to plead that they have some relevance when they don't. The only chance their MPs have of holding on are for a YES alliance and the SNP standing aside for them, which they won't.
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 16, 2022 10:39:43 GMT
So the whole poll is basically Alba trying to plead that they have some relevance when they don't. The only chance their MPs have of holding on are for a YES alliance and the SNP standing aside for them, which they won't. Alba couldn't predict what the poll would show, but they no doubt wouldn't've published it if it was negative for them. For the independence movement, there's no reason to challenge the SNP in a constituency seat (both at Westminster or Holyrood); there's no chance of a Yes alliance in a general election that involves the SNP standing down. 4% on the list would be double what they did in 2021, but apparently Panelbase don't weight for previous Scottish Parliament vote (at least they don't weight for previous list vote, which isn't uncommon for pollsters for some reason) - so it could be an overestimation of their share or it could be an indication of a slow movement towards them from SNP voters. I'd guess the former, as YouGov, ComRes and Survation put them on either 1% or 2%, but Panelbase haven't had them as an option since prior to the 2021 election - it could simply be the typical level for them with Panelbase (similar to how the SSP always seemed to get ~3% with YouGov for some reason). Panelbase did put them on between 4% and 6% prior to the last election; I don't know if there's been any methodology changes since then or reflective of the same factors which lead to their overestimation prior to the 2021 election. If we take that 4% figure, they wouldn't be too far away from a seat. They'd probably be at ~5% in the North East, based on their 2021 performance, with around 6-7% needed to gain a seat in any given region.
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Post by stb12 on Oct 16, 2022 14:21:40 GMT
So the whole poll is basically Alba trying to plead that they have some relevance when they don't. The only chance their MPs have of holding on are for a YES alliance and the SNP standing aside for them, which they won't. And interestingly their two MPs are in seats which are more marginal over Labour and would be seen as amongst their best Scottish pick up opportunities
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 16, 2022 14:53:58 GMT
So the whole poll is basically Alba trying to plead that they have some relevance when they don't. The only chance their MPs have of holding on are for a YES alliance and the SNP standing aside for them, which they won't. And interestingly their two MPs are in seats which are more marginal over Labour and would be seen as amongst their best Scottish pick up opportunities Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath is likely a little skewed due to the context of the previous election - Hanvey being suspended due to anti-Semitism claims - making it the only constituency in Scotland in 2019 where the SNP vote share fell on 2017. That said there's a fairly significant Conservative vote for Labour to squeeze there. East Lothian is an area where the two main unionists have been basically level - so a Labour gain is almost certain on the current polling numbers, IMO. I'd be surprised if either stands in the next general election, but if they do both will end up losing their deposits.
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 23, 2022 18:59:58 GMT
I may make this into its own thread, but... I've been looking into a (relatively simple) model to predict localised support levels for independence based on current polling. It's based upon the Too Close to Call Canada seat projection model, with the current factors modifying independence support from the 2014 levels being Brexit support (Remain/Leave), age (18-34/35-54/55+), place of birth (Scotland/Rest of the UK/Outside the UK) and social grade (ABC1/C2/DE). These modifications relate to the share of Yes/No voters in each category. So 55% of Remain voters and 30% of Leave voters voting Yes would imply 75% of Yes voters are Remain voters compared to an estimated 65% at the 2016 referendum. This means Yes would be doing relatively better in Remain areas than Leave areas compared to 2014. Yes support is notably more concentrated among remain voters, 18-34 year olds and ABC1s. The average of the polls used suggest Yes is on 49.2% and No is on 50.9% (doesn't add to 100% due to rounding). This would put independence ahead in nine of the 32 councils, compared to four in 2014, according to the model. The biggest relative swings in favour of independence come in Edinburgh, East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire and the biggest swings against independence are in Dumfries and Galloway, Moray and Eilean Siar. I'd want to put in factors based on Westminster and Holyrood election vote, however I'd need to calculate some estimates for each council area in order to do that - I'm not ready to publish specific results until I've got them. Factors like education level don't appear in the data tables for Scottish polling, so are unlikely to be possible. If anyone's got any suggestions for factors to include, feel free to say. Depending on data available, I may or may not be able to include them.
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