msc
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Post by msc on Oct 6, 2022 9:34:16 GMT
Labour getting 30% or higher would be interesting. Yes, they'd win the 2017 seats back, as expected. However, even if the SNP vote remained static, you'd still have a fair few seats that could shift to Labour without the SNP dropping any support, through "fishing in the unionist pool". If Labour did improve to that extent, it also means the SNP are vulnerable in that they can't drop far from that 46% without losing seats. Even a 3% drop would give Labour around 12 seats without any great advance of their own.
Basically, it's more volatile than it looks under the surface.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 6, 2022 10:43:54 GMT
And what's happening in these polls probably isn't a straight Tory to Labour switch, as usual there is churn.
Tories have likely collapsed in their stronger seats, largely to the benefit of the Nats - whilst there is a bit of "soft indy" movement in the central belt.
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Post by afleitch on Oct 6, 2022 11:15:13 GMT
Survation (from Scotland in Union)
Holyrood polling has Greens level with the Tories. On simple modelling that could give the Greens more seats.
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Post by Clark on Oct 6, 2022 11:35:29 GMT
It makes sense to me that Tory voters would more likely switch to Labour for Scottish Elections, at least in terms of FPTP to assist the non-separatist vote. For a General Election however, I'm not sure why Tory voters would switch to Labour when they are ultimately the competition on that day.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 6, 2022 11:40:24 GMT
It makes sense to me that Tory voters would more likely switch to Labour for Scottish Elections, at least in terms of FPTP to assist the non-separatist vote. For a General Election however, I'm not sure why Tory voters would switch to Labour when they are ultimately the competition that day. You have to remember that many of those who vote Tory in Scotland are fairly recent converts from Labour who place opposition to the SNP/support of the Union in first place. Labour are third in a swathe of seats where they used to hold the seat - not all because of the Labour to SNP swing - Labour were squeezed from two directions after the referendum.
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 6, 2022 12:04:46 GMT
And what's happening in these polls probably isn't a straight Tory to Labour switch, as usual there is churn. Tories have likely collapsed in their stronger seats, largely to the benefit of the Nats - whilst there is a bit of "soft indy" movement in the central belt. The Survation poll has the SNP retaining 84% of their 2019 vote (including undecided voters - 7%), with only 6% moving to Labour. This compares to 18% of the Conservative vote moving to Labour, 14% undecided and 6% moving to the SNP. It’s a virtually identical pattern among each parties’ 2021 voter base. It does appear to be mostly a direct switch between the Tories and Labour.
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 6, 2022 12:27:39 GMT
Survation (from Scotland in Union) Holyrood polling has Greens level with the Tories. On simple modelling that could give the Greens more seats. The listed changes aren’t accurate, so I’ve listed the changes from the previous published Survation poll (28 Mar) below; there was no Westminster or Holyrood VI with the 3 May poll (unless they were unpublished). Westminster VI: SNP 44 (-1), Lab 31 (+4), Con 19 (-4), LDm 6 (nc), Oth 4 (+2). Constituency VI: SNP 45 (-1), Lab 30 (+5), Con 14 (-6), LDm 6 (-1), Oth 4 (+2). List VI: SNP 31 (-3), Lab 27 (+4), Con 14 (-5), Grn 14 (+3), LDm 9 (+1), RUK 2 (nc), Alba 1 (-1), UKIP 1 (nc), Oth 0 (-1)
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Post by afleitch on Oct 6, 2022 12:56:16 GMT
And what's happening in these polls probably isn't a straight Tory to Labour switch, as usual there is churn. Tories have likely collapsed in their stronger seats, largely to the benefit of the Nats - whilst there is a bit of "soft indy" movement in the central belt. The Survation poll has the SNP retaining 84% of their 2019 vote (including undecided voters - 7%), with only 6% moving to Labour. This compares to 18% of the Conservative vote moving to Labour, 14% undecided and 6% moving to the SNP. It’s a virtually identical pattern among each parties’ 2021 voter base. It does appear to be mostly a direct switch between the Tories and Labour. That's an important observation. If the SNP are effectively unchanged from 2019, if they were losing substantial voters to Labour, it's unlikely they would gain voters (other than DNV's) from any other party to backfill their support back up to around 45%. In terms of the Lib Dems, there isn't much 'unionist tactical' shifting that can happen as in seats where they have no hope v seats they can win, that's already happened. So it really leaves Conservative to Labour shifts unless the core die-hard Labour vote that remains (those who've stuck with the party and never voted for anyone else) suddenly decides to want to save Tories during a national rout. Which I think defies logic. The other issue is where SNP support is. It's very well spread. And very efficient, similar to the efficiency of Labour's vote post-war. If we halved Tory support in each seat and gave that to Labour, Labour would only pick up two seats from the SNP (currently held by Alba) and the SNP would wipe out the Tories. Alternatively if we unwind back to 2015, where the Tories got 15% and Labour 24% and reverse all the sorting, all the Davidson gains etc, then a swing from that position gives SNP 52 seats to 4 Labour and 2 Tory. So again, not much different. Using 2017 as a base gives 51-4-0 At the moment it doesn't appear that it's the SNP15-LAB17-SNP19 switching to Labour again that's behind Labour's uptick.
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Post by michaelarden on Oct 6, 2022 14:41:44 GMT
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 6, 2022 15:56:32 GMT
The other issue is where SNP support is. It's very well spread. And very efficient, similar to the efficiency of Labour's vote post-war. If we halved Tory support in each seat and gave that to Labour, Labour would only pick up two seats from the SNP (currently held by Alba) and the SNP would wipe out the Tories. Alternatively if we unwind back to 2015, where the Tories got 15% and Labour 24% and reverse all the sorting, all the Davidson gains etc, then a swing from that position gives SNP 52 seats to 4 Labour and 2 Tory. So again, not much different. Using 2017 as a base gives 51-4-0 At the moment it doesn't appear that it's the SNP15-LAB17-SNP19 switching to Labour again that's behind Labour's uptick. If SNP support truly cratered down to the low 30s then iirc on the 2017 result it could deliver massive losses (the SNP support being broad but their opponents being more concentrated), but short of that it is as you say very efficient, especially if the opposition parties are fighting over the same pool of voters rather than Labour winning over SNP swing voters.
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Post by afleitch on Oct 6, 2022 19:20:57 GMT
The other issue is where SNP support is. It's very well spread. And very efficient, similar to the efficiency of Labour's vote post-war. If we halved Tory support in each seat and gave that to Labour, Labour would only pick up two seats from the SNP (currently held by Alba) and the SNP would wipe out the Tories. Alternatively if we unwind back to 2015, where the Tories got 15% and Labour 24% and reverse all the sorting, all the Davidson gains etc, then a swing from that position gives SNP 52 seats to 4 Labour and 2 Tory. So again, not much different. Using 2017 as a base gives 51-4-0 At the moment it doesn't appear that it's the SNP15-LAB17-SNP19 switching to Labour again that's behind Labour's uptick. If SNP support truly cratered down to the low 30s then iirc on the 2017 result it could deliver massive losses (the SNP support being broad but their opponents being more concentrated), but short of that it is as you say very efficient, especially if the opposition parties are fighting over the same pool of voters rather than Labour winning over SNP swing voters. I am personally shocked that the SNP haven't taken a hit. I regularly collate subsamples which isn't that far off the the polls so far, but I was expecting a little more deviation. There is a core 45% who want independence and will vote SNP. They are geographically well spread. Where the SNP downplay this, as in 2017, they don't turnout to vote. People keep saying, often in rUK media but also here that 'Oh they'll vote Labour to get the Tories out.' But voting Labour doesn't get the Tories out; it would replace SNP MP's with Labour ones or Tories though the backdoor. If the polling is this strong for Labour GB, or even back to pre minibudget levels, it's probably enough to get Labour a majority. Or have them relying on the SNP to make it through. Until such time as Labour make a different constitutional offer to their old voters, I don't see much changing.
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iain
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Post by iain on Oct 6, 2022 21:36:53 GMT
People keep saying, often in rUK media but also here that 'Oh they'll vote Labour to get the Tories out.' But voting Labour doesn't get the Tories out; it would replace SNP MP's with Labour ones or Tories though the backdoor. Speaking as a Lib Dem, this tactic does often unfortunately work fairly well.
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 7, 2022 18:07:12 GMT
YouGov’s data tables are up, 13% of 2019 SNP voters are switching to Labour in the poll compared to 30% and 32% for Conservative and Lib Dem voters respectively. 13% of 2019 Labour voters are moving to the SNP, while 26% of those playing to vote Labour support independence. Only about 5% of those under 50 say they would vote Conservative. link
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Post by graham on Oct 7, 2022 19:52:39 GMT
On the basis of this week's three polls on voting intentions in Scotland for Westminster elections Labour is now polling at circa 75% of its 2010 vote - and close to 80% of what the party polled there at both 1974 elections. If Labour progresses further to circa 34% with SNP dipping to circa 40% , we will see some very interesting results next time.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 8, 2022 9:41:36 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 8, 2022 10:18:31 GMT
YouGov’s data tables are up, 13% of 2019 SNP voters are switching to Labour in the poll compared to 30% and 32% for Conservative and Lib Dem voters respectively. 13% of 2019 Labour voters are moving to the SNP, while 26% of those playing to vote Labour support independence. Only about 5% of those under 50 say they would vote Conservative. linkGiven the circumstances, and Labour's dire 2019 showing in Scotland especially, this seems like.....rather a lot.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 8, 2022 10:20:50 GMT
YouGov’s data tables are up, 13% of 2019 SNP voters are switching to Labour in the poll compared to 30% and 32% for Conservative and Lib Dem voters respectively. 13% of 2019 Labour voters are moving to the SNP, while 26% of those playing to vote Labour support independence. Only about 5% of those under 50 say they would vote Conservative. linkGiven the circumstances, and Labour's dire 2019 showing in Scotland especially, this seems like.....rather a lot. I thought the same - is it down to Sarwar's much more unionist profile and pro Indy Labour voters opting for the SNP? The polls do rather suggest that - still - the independence issue dwarfs all others.
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Post by greyfriar on Oct 8, 2022 10:29:38 GMT
These movements are considerable and potentially have greater significance than the raw numbers suggest, given the propensity for coalesced anti-SNP voting across the Tory/Labour/Lib Dem regions. 2017 demonstrated that the electorate is astute in identifying the candidate to rally round and crucially the soft edge of the SNP leaning vote after a decade in power, either switching when there’s a big decision to be made at Westminster or staying at home. Low double digit shifts from SNP to Labour in the Glasgow/West regions have the potential for doubling or more with block shifts of former Tory or Lib Dem voters who are most likely to turn out. Lots can and will happen from now to then, regardless of a Tory wipeout to the direct benefit of the SNP, the groundwork for double digit losses to Labour and Lib Dems remains.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 8, 2022 14:08:06 GMT
Yes - but the next general election will not be mainly about anti-SNP tactical voting in Scotland. 2019 had signs that anti-Conservative tactical voting was a larger factor and I would expect the next GE to have that to a larger extent. The next Holyrood election will be a completely different story, of course. I wonder if some of the Labour to SNP switching may in fact be down to this, perhaps?
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 8, 2022 14:58:37 GMT
Given the circumstances, and Labour's dire 2019 showing in Scotland especially, this seems like.....rather a lot. I thought the same - is it down to Sarwar's much more unionist profile and pro Indy Labour voters opting for the SNP? The polls do rather suggest that - still - the independence issue dwarfs all others. I wonder if it’s a group who voted Labour specifically for Corbyn, who wouldn’t vote Labour under Starmer or believe the current SNP is closer to their views. We can’t forget Labour picked up seats in 2017 that had an outright majority for independence - most notably Glasgow North East, where Corbyn would’ve been a definite vote winner due to his left-wing policies. Sarwar’s more unionist profile may be another factor in that, although I think that would be the biggest factor in Labour’s relatively weaker showing on the Holyrood VI figures. Starmer does have much more even approval ratings between Yes and No voters than Sarwar; over half of current SNP supporters say Starmer is doing well compared to under a quarter for Sarwar.
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