Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 30, 2020 9:48:57 GMT
Those Holyrood figures look ... odd. Doesn't seem quite credible. Does this outfit have any track record?
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Post by jollyroger93 on Oct 30, 2020 10:04:42 GMT
Those Holyrood figures look ... odd. Doesn't seem quite credible. Does this outfit have any track record? Never heard of them before so probably not.... with Holyrood Polls the SNP have historically been over polled by any where between 3 and 5% the conservatives under polled about 3%-4%, the labour party slighly under and the lib dems slightly over. however these Holyrood figures look like a carbon copy of the Ipsos-mori poll..... so not sure what's going on here, but if the result was more like this SNP=52% CON=22% LAB=17% LIB=7% That would be more believable i would suggest.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Oct 30, 2020 10:07:03 GMT
Those Holyrood figures look ... odd. Doesn't seem quite credible. Does this outfit have any track record? They are not Brit polling council members so take with a big pitch of salt.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 30, 2020 11:11:26 GMT
Well their VI figures are similar to the most recent Ipsos-MORI poll, though many thought that one was a bit "off" as well.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Oct 30, 2020 11:16:57 GMT
Well their VI figures are similar to the most recent Ipsos-MORI poll, though many thought that one was a bit "off" as well. Well they do telephone polling which im lead to believe can be rather inaccurate?
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Oct 30, 2020 12:37:25 GMT
This is what their website says. Not sure if they are a serious outfit or pushing an agenda.
James Johnson is a political adviser and pollster, having previously served as the Senior Opinion Research and Strategy Adviser to Prime Minister Theresa May. In that capacity he conducted opinion research and private polling, and presented recommendations to the Prime Minister and the Cabinet, as well as the rest of Whitehall and the Conservative Party.
Dr Tom Lubbock is a public opinion specialist having previously worked as an academic behavioural scientist at the University of Oxford, specialising in research methods and referendum campaigns. Between 2017-2019 he ran analytics and polling at Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ), working on tracking polling for the Prime Minister and end to end segmentations. This informed top-level strategy as well as Budgets, and HE and health policy. Tom has also worked closely on a number of contracts for private clients.
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johng
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Post by johng on Oct 30, 2020 12:38:05 GMT
Well their VI figures are similar to the most recent Ipsos-MORI poll, though many thought that one was a bit "off" as well. Well they do telephone polling which im lead to believe can be rather inaccurate? Telephone polling, when done correctly, is usually thought of as the most accurate way to poll.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Nov 5, 2020 16:05:11 GMT
How many polls in a row now showing a majority for independence?
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fourringcircus
Forum Regular
Toryism kills the humane spirit
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Post by fourringcircus on Nov 5, 2020 19:13:43 GMT
How many polls in a row now showing a majority for independence? I believe we are now into double figures in terms of the number of polls, with a mean figure of 54% in favour of independence across those polls.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Nov 5, 2020 19:22:44 GMT
How many polls in a row now showing a majority for independence? I believe we are now into double figures in terms of the number of polls, with a mean figure of 54% in favour of independence across those polls. The union is clearly in the minority at this point, however the problem not the independence movement have but what the snp Have is momentum. They have momentum for now driven by brexit and Covid. Brexit will whatever happens be over come December. If there’s a deal this will I think take some wind out of the sails of the SNP. Covid however is a different matter and will last longer, I still expect early next year the independence poll to be 52% in favour of it. But to slightly narrow as the May election comes around.
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fourringcircus
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Toryism kills the humane spirit
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Post by fourringcircus on Nov 5, 2020 21:40:15 GMT
They have momentum for now driven by brexit and Covid. Brexit will whatever happens be over come December. The Brexit issues will only be getting warmed-up come December. Whilst the SNP appear to be doing better than the Tories in terms of Covid, that's a very low bar. Forget Covid - Brexit realities in 2021 will be the downfall of this union and the blame will lie squarely with the Conservative and Unionist Party!
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Nov 5, 2020 21:52:08 GMT
They have momentum for now driven by brexit and Covid. Brexit will whatever happens be over come December. The Brexit issues will only be getting warmed-up come December. Whilst the SNP appear to be doing better than the Tories in terms of Covid, that's a very low bar. Forget Covid - Brexit realities in 2021 will be the downfall of this union and the blame will lie squarely with the Conservative and Unionist Party!
You could possibly be right that, that is the way it will fall in Scotland. in England Covid not Brexit will get the blame in for our economic woes.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Nov 7, 2020 1:46:47 GMT
They have momentum for now driven by brexit and Covid. Brexit will whatever happens be over come December. The Brexit issues will only be getting warmed-up come December. Whilst the SNP appear to be doing better than the Tories in terms of Covid, that's a very low bar. Forget Covid - Brexit realities in 2021 will be the downfall of this union and the blame will lie squarely with the Conservative and Unionist Party! I fear your analysis is spot on.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Nov 12, 2020 13:30:51 GMT
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johng
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Post by johng on Nov 12, 2020 13:42:33 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 12, 2020 13:54:22 GMT
A depressing poll for unionists.
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andrew
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Post by andrew on Nov 12, 2020 17:59:29 GMT
Panelbase Poll out today:
Yes 56% (+1) No 44% (-1)
Westminster: SNP 50% (-3) Conservatives 21% (n/c) Labour 20% (+1) Liberal Democrats 5% (-1) Greens 2% (n/a)
Scottish Parliament constituency voting intention: SNP 53% (-2) Conservatives 21% (+1) Labour 18% (+3) Liberal Democrats 5% (-1) Greens 3% (n/c)
Regional list voting intention: SNP 46% (-4) Conservatives 20% (+2) Labour 17% (+2) Greens 8% (n/c) Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c)
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johng
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Post by johng on Nov 12, 2020 18:29:15 GMT
A depressing poll for unionists. Polls for months have been very depressing for unionists.
Both the SNP and independence quite consistently above 50%.
The union's best hope is a Labour revival north of the border which looks unlikely in the short-term.
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 12, 2020 18:35:28 GMT
A depressing poll for unionists. Polls for months have been very depressing for unionists. Both the SNP and independence quite consistently above 50%. The union's best hope is a Labour revival north of the border which looks unlikely in the short-term.
But Labour struggle because a significant proportion of their former vote are not Unionist. As Tam Dalyell predicted devolution has-been the Trojan Horse for the growth of a call for independence
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fourringcircus
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Post by fourringcircus on Nov 12, 2020 19:10:44 GMT
The union's best hope is a Labour revival north of the border which looks unlikely in the short-term.
If that's really the best hope for Scottish unionists, then I have some very, very bad news for you......
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