Sandy
Forum Regular
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Post by Sandy on Nov 12, 2020 20:17:10 GMT
Polls for months have been very depressing for unionists. Both the SNP and independence quite consistently above 50%. The union's best hope is a Labour revival north of the border which looks unlikely in the short-term.
But Labour struggle because a significant proportion of their former vote are not Unionist. As Tam Dalyell predicted devolution has-been the Trojan Horse for the growth of a call for independenceMaybe you would be kind enough to explain that to some of your former Labour colleagues who did not take kindly to my previous attempts to do so.....
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Post by justin124 on Nov 14, 2020 21:06:53 GMT
The union's best hope is a Labour revival north of the border which looks unlikely in the short-term.
If that's really the best hope for Scottish unionists, then I have some very, very bad news for you...... Labour's poll rating does appear to be ticking up a bit in Scotland and some polls show the party back in second place. The SNP has edged down a few points though still has a big lead.Labour might get close to 25% in the Holyrood election next May.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Nov 14, 2020 22:11:09 GMT
If that's really the best hope for Scottish unionists, then I have some very, very bad news for you...... Labour's poll rating does appear to be ticking up a bit in Scotland and some polls show the party back in second place. The SNP has edged down a few points though still has a big lead.Labour might get close to 25% in the Holyrood election next May. That was one poll, and they could get close to 25% if they had a different leader. But with Richard in charge I think the best they can hope for is to either hold what they have or gain 1 or 2 seats
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Nov 15, 2020 0:26:06 GMT
Richard Leonard may be a poor leader, but who is waiting in the wings to take over who is much better? We can only hope that Labour's strength across the UK drags up the Scottish Labour vote. I think most would be very happy with second place at the moment.
Scottish Labour's problems are long-standing. Even before their numbers were decimated, most ambitious candidates tried for Westminster rather than Holyrood. Such a shame.
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Post by robert1 on Nov 15, 2020 8:14:06 GMT
It is questionable whether Labour have seen an uptick in their support in Scotland. We will know more when (as the media would have it) Scotland's Super Thursday's results are in, but it isn't looking hopeful for Labour on the basis of the 3 recent by-elections. Taking 2017 as the base, when the Tories with Ruth Davidson were in full flow, they show:- SNP Con Lab LD Grn Aberdeenshire +10.6 +0.8 -4.7 -9.5 Aberdeen + 6.7 - 1.3 -5.3 -1.6 +1.7 Edinburgh + 1.8 - 4.7 -7.2 +4.2 +4.1 It would appear that only the SNP and Greens can be uniformly content with recent figures, with Labour the continual loser.
The 3 this week, including two in N Lanarkshire, will be particularly interesting if Labour are to show they are impoving their position. 2 more follow in Perth a week later where, as in Clackmannanshire this week, the contests are very different in nature. I'm willing to suggest that in the long run the propects for the Greens in Scotland are improving.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,309
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 15, 2020 11:04:03 GMT
Any poll uptick, which does seem to have happened to a small extent, won't necessarily be borne out in a few local byelection results.
(not least due to where they are held)
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Post by justin124 on Nov 15, 2020 11:41:50 GMT
It is questionable whether Labour have seen an uptick in their support in Scotland. We will know more when (as the media would have it) Scotland's Super Thursday's results are in, but it isn't looking hopeful for Labour on the basis of the 3 recent by-elections. Taking 2017 as the base, when the Tories with Ruth Davidson were in full flow, they show:- SNP Con Lab LD Grn Aberdeenshire +10.6 +0.8 -4.7 -9.5 Aberdeen + 6.7 - 1.3 -5.3 -1.6 +1.7 Edinburgh + 1.8 - 4.7 -7.2 +4.2 +4.1 It would appear that only the SNP and Greens can be uniformly content with recent figures, with Labour the continual loser.
The 3 this week, including two in N Lanarkshire, will be particularly interesting if Labour are to show they are impoving their position. 2 more follow in Perth a week later where, as in Clackmannanshire this week, the contests are very different in nature. I'm willing to suggest that in the long run the propects for the Greens in Scotland are improving. In late April and early May 2017, Labour's poll rating for Westminster was down at 13% - 15% - yet a few weeks later Labour managed over 27% in Scotland at the GE.Their current vote share appears to be 17% - 21%.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Nov 15, 2020 11:46:01 GMT
It is questionable whether Labour have seen an uptick in their support in Scotland. We will know more when (as the media would have it) Scotland's Super Thursday's results are in, but it isn't looking hopeful for Labour on the basis of the 3 recent by-elections. Taking 2017 as the base, when the Tories with Ruth Davidson were in full flow, they show:- SNP Con Lab LD Grn Aberdeenshire +10.6 +0.8 -4.7 -9.5 Aberdeen + 6.7 - 1.3 -5.3 -1.6 +1.7 Edinburgh + 1.8 - 4.7 -7.2 +4.2 +4.1 It would appear that only the SNP and Greens can be uniformly content with recent figures, with Labour the continual loser.
The 3 this week, including two in N Lanarkshire, will be particularly interesting if Labour are to show they are impoving their position. 2 more follow in Perth a week later where, as in Clackmannanshire this week, the contests are very different in nature. I'm willing to suggest that in the long run the propects for the Greens in Scotland are improving. In late April and early May 2017, Labour's poll rating for Westminster was down at 13% - 15% - yet a few weeks later Labour managed over 27% in Scotland at the GE.Their current vote share appears to be 17% - 21%. That’s assuming the 2021 will be a repeat of 2017, different election with a different leader so I doubt it.
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Post by justin124 on Nov 15, 2020 12:10:00 GMT
In late April and early May 2017, Labour's poll rating for Westminster was down at 13% - 15% - yet a few weeks later Labour managed over 27% in Scotland at the GE.Their current vote share appears to be 17% - 21%. That’s assuming the 2021 will be a repeat of 2017, different election with a different leader so I doubt it. I accept that. My point really was that at a Westminster GE Labour could still poll 25% - 30% - particularly if Starmer - rather than Leonard- leads the campaign there.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Dec 2, 2020 13:26:39 GMT
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Post by jollyroger93 on Dec 2, 2020 13:27:18 GMT
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fourringcircus
Forum Regular
Toryism kills the humane spirit
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Post by fourringcircus on Dec 2, 2020 17:54:12 GMT
That's now fifteen polls in a row with a majority for Yes.... Tick Tock!
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Post by Merseymike on Dec 2, 2020 18:07:52 GMT
That's now fifteen polls in a row with a majority for Yes.... Tick Tock! I can see that being the case pretty consistently while a second referendum on the topic is refused. Whether it would then mean that it would be supported in that referendum I'm less sure about. I think it needs to be a clear result though. There does need to be a decision made and one that is beyond continuing challenge.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Dec 2, 2020 18:22:50 GMT
That's now fifteen polls in a row with a majority for Yes.... Tick Tock! Indeed it’s looking good for the Nats..... But the polls appear to be levelling off and maybe slightly starting to slowly swing back to the union, time will tell but for the Nats to be successful they need to sustain this level of support up until may next year. Question is can they?
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Post by jollyroger93 on Dec 2, 2020 18:23:33 GMT
That's now fifteen polls in a row with a majority for Yes.... Tick Tock! I can see that being the case pretty consistently while a second referendum on the topic is refused. Whether it would then mean that it would be supported in that referendum I'm less sure about. I think it needs to be a clear result though. There does need to be a decision made and one that is beyond continuing challenge. It was decided in 2014 Mike, the losers can’t keep waiting to run the result again if they didn’t like the answer they got.
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Post by Merseymike on Dec 2, 2020 18:37:49 GMT
I can see that being the case pretty consistently while a second referendum on the topic is refused. Whether it would then mean that it would be supported in that referendum I'm less sure about. I think it needs to be a clear result though. There does need to be a decision made and one that is beyond continuing challenge. It was decided in 2014 Mike, the losers can’t keep waiting to run the result again if they didn’t like the answer they got. I think the EU situation justifies a further vote. I don't feel strongly either way as to the outcome
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,485
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Post by johng on Dec 2, 2020 19:08:31 GMT
That's now fifteen polls in a row with a majority for Yes.... Tick Tock! Indeed it’s looking good for the Nats..... But the polls appear to be levelling off and maybe slightly starting to slowly swing back to the union, time will tell but for the Nats to be successful they need to sustain this level of support up until may next year. Question is can they? I see no reason why the SNP can't maintain 50 points or above in the polls. The narrative is firmly in their court.
The main risk for them continues to be the current internal issues they are having.
They seem to have ridden out the Salmond thing very well though. I remember posters here saying that the court case and fallout from it would sink Sturgeon - that hasn't been the case at all. I think with polls like these too, the final goal is well in sight for a big chunk of their electorate so they should be able to keep a large number on their side no matter what.
I'm not sure this poll does show a fall for independence either. The last Ipsos-Mori poll was the biggest lead for independence ever (? I think) and this is just falling closer to the average of other pollsters who are showing mid to high single digit leads (apart from Yougov who had +2).
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fourringcircus
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Toryism kills the humane spirit
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Post by fourringcircus on Dec 2, 2020 19:42:12 GMT
It was decided in 2014 Mike, the losers can’t keep waiting to run the result again if they didn’t like the answer they got. This boil needs to be firmly lanced, although I doubt you will see the wood for the trees. The result in 2014 was based on several promises, vows and pre-conditions, all of which have been blown with the wind. We were told that we should lead the UK, not leave it. We were told vote No to maintain EU membership. We were told that we would get "something as near to federalism as possible in the British system". The next day, we got EVEL, our MP's are constantly ridiculed, we had Brexit foisted upon us and now the Internal Market Bill looks like undermining devolution altogether. In truth, the shift in the polls has only come from people who voted No and who now realise (as most of us knew would happen) that they've been shafted by Westminster. So the momentum isn't from people who are unhappy with the 2014 result. It's from people who are unhappy with the result of the result.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Dec 2, 2020 19:44:56 GMT
It was decided in 2014 Mike, the losers can’t keep waiting to run the result again if they didn’t like the answer they got. This boil needs to be firmly lanced, although I doubt you will see the wood for the trees. The result in 2014 was based on several promises, vows and pre-conditions, all of which have been blown with the wind. We were told that we should lead the UK, not leave it. We were told vote No to maintain EU membership. We were told that we would get "something as near to federalism as possible in the British system". The next day, we got EVEL, our MP's are constantly ridiculed, we had Brexit foisted upon us and now the Internal Market Bill looks like undermining devolution altogether. In truth, the shift in the polls has only come from people who voted No and who now realise (as most of us knew would happen) that they've been shafted by Westminster. So the momentum isn't from people who are unhappy with the 2014 result. It's from people who are unhappy with the result of the result. To be fair, a fair few of them are idiots.
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fourringcircus
Forum Regular
Toryism kills the humane spirit
Posts: 1,600
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Post by fourringcircus on Dec 2, 2020 19:46:52 GMT
This boil needs to be firmly lanced, although I doubt you will see the wood for the trees. The result in 2014 was based on several promises, vows and pre-conditions, all of which have been blown with the wind. We were told that we should lead the UK, not leave it. We were told vote No to maintain EU membership. We were told that we would get "something as near to federalism as possible in the British system". The next day, we got EVEL, our MP's are constantly ridiculed, we had Brexit foisted upon us and now the Internal Market Bill looks like undermining devolution altogether. In truth, the shift in the polls has only come from people who voted No and who now realise (as most of us knew would happen) that they've been shafted by Westminster. So the momentum isn't from people who are unhappy with the 2014 result. It's from people who are unhappy with the result of the result. To be fair, a fair few of them are idiots. In a room filled with utter clowns......
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