clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Aug 12, 2020 1:18:45 GMT
Yougov for The Times now has a poll showing a majority for independence. 53-47. So now they and Panelbase show there's a majority, though slim, for independence. The full details and tables aren't out yet, but the SNP appear to be on 57% for the constituency vote in next year's parliamentary election. Based on the information I have it's: Holyrood:SNP 57/47 (+3/+2 on Apr) Con 20/21 (-3/-2) Lab 14/14 (+2/+2) Lib 6/6 (-2/-1) Grn 1/6 (-1/-2) Oth 1/6 (implied as 3% SSP, 1% Brexit)According to the ElectionPolling calculator that would give the SNP an overall majority of 19: SNP 74 seats (+11); Con 29 (-2); Lab 18 (-6); Lib 5 (nc); Grn 3 (-3). That's, of course, an estimate but if these vote shares were replicated next year, it would almost certainly lead to a greater majority than 2011. Although, rumours continue about a new pro-independence party, that would only run candidates on the list and that may involve Alex Salmond, which has the potential to push the pro-independence seats up if enough SNP voters migrate on the list, especially given the SNP's strength in the constituency ballot - where they could potentially win a majority purely from constituency seats. That implies the SNP's vote share or independence support doesn't fade, the former is almost certain, IMO, as the election approaches.
YouGov didn't poll on independence in April, but their last figures were very much inline with the ones from Panelbase (Yes +3) and Survation (Tied) in late January, showing a 1% 'Yes' lead (all including undecided voters). A 53% figure from YouGov would be inline with Panelbase's increases - with their June and July polls showing Yes +7 or 54-46 excluding undecided voters. Those two Panelbase polls, most notably had 'Yes' at 50% including undecided voters.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Aug 12, 2020 8:28:50 GMT
Remarkable figures when the SG are serially incompetent.
Still as Brexit underlines, wrap yourself around a flag and bingo.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Aug 12, 2020 9:01:00 GMT
Remarkable figures when the SG are serially incompetent. Still as Brexit underlines, wrap yourself around a flag and bingo. You still banging on about brexit? Christ it’s over! Get over it.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Aug 12, 2020 9:09:04 GMT
You misinterpreted that quite spectacularly.
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Post by northbriton on Aug 12, 2020 10:21:19 GMT
Remarkable figures when the SG are serially incompetent. Still as Brexit underlines, wrap yourself around a flag and bingo. That's true, I guess, but do we know when the polling was carried out? There's been quite a few developments in the last few days which may knock a bit of the gilt off, ie, the SQA disaster, lockdown in Aberdeen, and new Tory leader. Could be peak SNP. Will be interesting to see how things pan out as Covid recedes politics returns to normal, or the new normal...
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,600
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 12, 2020 10:40:03 GMT
Those figures for Johnson are, like, similar to the worst Corbyn used to get GB-wide. Maybe that is part of the explanation?
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Post by afleitch on Aug 12, 2020 11:12:37 GMT
Remarkable figures when the SG are serially incompetent. Still as Brexit underlines, wrap yourself around a flag and bingo. That's true, I guess, but do we know when the polling was carried out? There's been quite a few developments in the last few days which may knock a bit of the gilt off, ie, the SQA disaster, lockdown in Aberdeen, and new Tory leader. Could be peak SNP. Will be interesting to see how things pan out as Covid recedes politics returns to normal, or the new normal... 6-10 August. So it covers the selection 'debacle', 'Swinney must go' and the fawning coronation of Saviour of the Union 3.0 As I keep pushing, no one was talking about any of this (even the exam 'crisis' to a great extent) outside the press, adjacent columnists and the Yoonisphere. If SLab had any sense they'd dump Leonard. They have a chance to overturn the gap.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Aug 12, 2020 11:55:04 GMT
That's true, I guess, but do we know when the polling was carried out? There's been quite a few developments in the last few days which may knock a bit of the gilt off, ie, the SQA disaster, lockdown in Aberdeen, and new Tory leader. Could be peak SNP. Will be interesting to see how things pan out as Covid recedes politics returns to normal, or the new normal... 6-10 August. So it covers the selection 'debacle', 'Swinney must go' and the fawning coronation of Saviour of the Union 3.0 As I keep pushing, no one was talking about any of this (even the exam 'crisis' to a great extent) outside the press, adjacent columnists and the Yoonisphere. If SLab had any sense they'd dump Leonard. They have a chance to overturn the gap. This is partially true, though if you're a parent of one of the children recieving exam results your views are very different. As I said last week, I am interested in how this impacts people's views of the SNP as a government. Does it add to the straws so to speak.
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Post by northbriton on Aug 12, 2020 13:02:43 GMT
6-10 August. So it covers the selection 'debacle', 'Swinney must go' and the fawning coronation of Saviour of the Union 3.0 As I keep pushing, no one was talking about any of this (even the exam 'crisis' to a great extent) outside the press, adjacent columnists and the Yoonisphere. If SLab had any sense they'd dump Leonard. They have a chance to overturn the gap. This is partially true, though if you're a parent of one of the children recieving exam results your views are very different. As I said last week, I am interested in how this impacts people's views of the SNP as a government. Does it add to the straws so to speak. Well, we'll see. Douglas Ross has several months to make an impact. My sense is that Scottish media may feel that Nicola has been given an unduly easy ride over the last several months, with daily briefings etc, and don't want to be seen as patsies. The Salmond inquiry will give them an opportunity to demonstrate that they have bite although whether this kind of stuff registers with voters is a moot point. More likely to have an impact is the reaction to the economic consequences of Covid which will, sooner or later, take precedence over the health outcomes.
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msc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 861
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Post by msc on Aug 12, 2020 13:26:13 GMT
6-10 August. So it covers the selection 'debacle', 'Swinney must go' and the fawning coronation of Saviour of the Union 3.0 As I keep pushing, no one was talking about any of this (even the exam 'crisis' to a great extent) outside the press, adjacent columnists and the Yoonisphere. If SLab had any sense they'd dump Leonard. They have a chance to overturn the gap. This is partially true, though if you're a parent of one of the children recieving exam results your views are very different. As I said last week, I am interested in how this impacts people's views of the SNP as a government. Does it add to the straws so to speak.
As a parent in a "deprived area" (statistically so but I hate that term), I just added it to the long list of errors on kids by the SNP government. (See also Named Persons)
In terms of the impact on a government, governments can take in a lot of errors when there is no credible nationwide opposition party. They're like sponges in that way. (For all the bad press and mumbling the Tories got in 2019, look at Corbyn, Jeremy, as a prime example of this.) The Scottish Tories have done well in recent years but imo have a clear ceiling with how the seats are shared out in Scotland (and are also stimmied by the Westminster party effect which they successful triangulated for seats in 2016 and 2017 but less so in 2019.). In other words, you need Scottish Labour to stop being shite to take seats off the Nats. But we're at least 14 years into that particular clock, and they seem addicted to forever picking the single worst people in the party to lead them.
They build a lot of straws up over time. Keep in mind that many governments are forgiven their failings until they are judged on all of them at once...
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Post by tonygreaves on Aug 12, 2020 14:00:22 GMT
Remarkable figures when the SG are serially incompetent. Still as Brexit underlines, wrap yourself around a flag and bingo. I am prepared to believe (without a huge amount of detailed evidence) that the SG is serially incompetent. The matter as I see it from a viewpoint a hundred miles or so south of the border is that they have a leader who is very competent at presentation and who gives an impression of high competence in administration. This contrasts with the UK ("English") government that is extremely incompetent at presentation and gives an impression (which I think is accurate) or serial incompetence. I would also say that Sturgeon does not "wrap herself around flag" in a traditional nationalist kind of way. She is also faced with three opposition parties in Scotland none of which seem able to get their acts together. (I saw Mr Ross on being interviewed on TV yesterday on the school exams fiasco and he was, to put it mildly, pathetic.)
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Post by greenchristian on Aug 12, 2020 14:18:51 GMT
Remarkable figures when the SG are serially incompetent. Still as Brexit underlines, wrap yourself around a flag and bingo. You still banging on about brexit? Christ it’s over! Get over it. In what way is Brexit "over"? We are still in the transition phase. Brexit negotiations are still ongoing. Just because the media have stopped talking about it doesn't mean it's over.
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Post by greenchristian on Aug 12, 2020 14:24:23 GMT
I would also say that Sturgeon does not "wrap herself around flag" in a traditional nationalist kind of way. She is also faced with three opposition parties in Scotland none of which seem able to get their acts together. (I saw Mr Ross on being interviewed on TV yesterday on the school exams fiasco and he was, to put it mildly, pathetic.) For the record there are four opposition parties in the Scottish Parliament.
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Post by northbriton on Aug 12, 2020 15:11:47 GMT
I would also say that Sturgeon does not "wrap herself around flag" in a traditional nationalist kind of way. She is also faced with three opposition parties in Scotland none of which seem able to get their acts together. (I saw Mr Ross on being interviewed on TV yesterday on the school exams fiasco and he was, to put it mildly, pathetic.) For the record there are four opposition parties in the Scottish Parliament. If by four you are reminding us about the Scottish Greens then I think many up here would beg to differ - given their refusal to no-confidence Mr Swinney.
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Post by greenchristian on Aug 12, 2020 15:18:36 GMT
For the record there are four opposition parties in the Scottish Parliament. If by four you are reminding us about the Scottish Greens then I think many up here would beg to differ - given their refusal to no-confidence Mr Swinney. Opposition does not mean disagreeing with the government on everything. Their statement on the issue suggests that they've got some kind of concession out of the SNP in return for that vote. Which is precisely the kind of thing opposition parties are supposed to do when there's a minority government.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Aug 12, 2020 16:08:13 GMT
Holyrood:SNP 57/47 (+3/+2 on Apr) Con 20/21 (-3/-2) Lab 14/14 (+2/+2) Lib 6/6 (-2/-1) Grn 1/6 (-1/-2) Oth 1/6 (implied as 3% SSP, 1% Brexit) Just to say I've adjusted the Lib Dem figure from 8/7 to 6/6 now we've got the tables out. Fieldwork was 6-10 August, following the start of the Aberdeen lockdown.The most notable thing in the tables is that YouGov had added a combined independence-Brexit vote column (who people voted in 2014 and 2016 combined); whilst this is subject to the usual warnings about crosstabs, it's worth looking at: Holyrood:Yes + Remain: SNP 92/74; Lab 3/3; Grn 2/13; Lib 2/2; Con 0/0; Oth 0/8 No + Remain: SNP 39/32; Lab 29/28; Con 22/23; Lib 10/10; Grn 0/3; Oth 1/4 Yes + Leave: SNP 73/62; Con 15/15; Lab 10/10; Grn 2/2; Lib 1/1; Oth 0/10 No + Leave: Con 62/62; Lab 16/16; Lib 9/8; SNP 7/6; Grn 0/1; Oth 6/6 DNV in one+: SNP 62/55; Con 15/15; Lab 12/12; Lib 8/7; Grn 2/9; Oth 1/3 Westminster:Overall: SNP 54; Con 20; Lab 16; Lib 5; Grn 2; Brx 2; Oth 0 Yes + Remain: SNP 93; Lab 3; Grn 3; Lib 1; Con 0; Brx 0; Oth 0 No + Remain: SNP 34; Lab 34; Con 20; Lib 10; Grn 1; Brx 0; Oth 0 Yes + Leave: SNP 71; Con 16; Lab 11; Grn 1; Lib 1; Brx 1; Oth 0 No + Leave: Con 63; Lab 13; SNP 7; Lib 6; Brx 5; Grn 1; Oth 1 DNV in one+: SNP 59; Con 13; Lab 13; Lib 8; Grn 5; Brx 0; Oth 2 Independence:Overall: Yes 45; No 40; DK 9; WNV 4; Ref 1 (54-46) Yes + Remain: Yes 89; No 5; DK 4; WNV 1; Ref 0 (95-5) No + Remain: Yes 27; No 64; DK 8; WNV 0; Ref 0 (30-70) Yes + Leave: Yes 63; No 22; DK 10; WNV 4; Ref 1 (74-26) No + Leave: Yes 7; No 86; DK 4; WNV 3; Ref 0 (7-93) DNV in one+: Yes 44; No 28; DK 15; WNV 10; Ref 3 (61-39)
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Post by MacShimidh on Aug 19, 2020 12:06:14 GMT
A significant moment.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,494
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Post by johng on Aug 19, 2020 12:27:59 GMT
It's a tad unfair to use the +/-3 as the question was the same in Panelbases' last poll in early July. It showed: Yes - 54% No - 46% So movement within the MOE and possibly statistical noise.
But still, 55-45 in this poll. 53-47 in the last Yougov poll. The overall movement towards yes is very clear.
If anyone read Simon Hart MP's awful piece in the Spectator, I have a feeling that the yes figure can only go up.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,558
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Post by cibwr on Aug 19, 2020 12:41:35 GMT
It's a tad unfair to use the +/-3 as the question was the same in Panelbases' last poll in early July. It showed: Yes - 54% No - 46% So movement within the MOE and possibly statistical noise. But still, 55-45 in this poll. 53-47 in the last Yougov poll. The overall movement towards yes is very clear. If anyone read Simon Hart MP's awful piece in the Spectator, I have a feeling that the yes figure can only go up. Is there a link to that, or is it behind a paywall?
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,494
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Post by johng on Aug 19, 2020 12:47:22 GMT
Is there a link to that, or is it behind a paywall?
I think you can read so many articles per month for free.
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