Eastleigh

[Deleted]

good posting here from Luke Akehurst, makes the relevant points we have discussed and I agree with his idea Labour should fight this well but can not see a win at all

labourlist.org/2013/02/labour-has-nothing-to-lose-in-eastleigh-and-should-throw-the-kitchen-sink-at-it/

[East Anglian Lefty]

It totally ignores local election results though. And the argument about 'no no-go areas' has only a weak interface with reality.

[Pete Whitehead]

On the previous setup if you clicked on a link it would always open in a new tab but now it opens in the same one which is a bit annoying. Anyway I think Luke Akehurst is right. I wouldn't get too hung up on local election results here, as my earlier post indicated there are an awful lot of voters here who vote LD locally but vote differently nationally and there is without doubt a large basic Labour vote which has voted tactically LD in both local and national elections

[Arthur Figgis]

Looking at the ward make-up of Eastleigh has reminded me of the travails of Bishopstoke Social FC, who played at the wonderfully named Chickenhall Lane.

They always seemed to be bottom of whichever division of the Hampshire League they were in at the time.

In their last season, they lost all but 3 matches (which were drawn), and had 6 points deducted, so finished the season with -3 points. They vanished without trace not long after.

[Arthur Figgis]

Feb 5, 2013 13:14:10 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

On the previous setup if you clicked on a link it would always open in a new tab but now it opens in the same one which is a bit annoying. Anyway I think Luke Akehurst is right. I wouldn't get too hung up on local election results here, as my earlier post indicated there are an awful lot of voters here who vote LD locally but vote differently nationally and there is without doubt a large basic Labour vote which has voted tactically LD in both local and national elections

Eastleigh itself is of course an old railway town and not the nicest of places. More akin to Crewe or Derby than somewhere your stereotypical town in the South East.

[Andrew_S]

Feb 4, 2013 17:48:57 GMT Andrew_S said:

Feb 4, 2013 17:29:58 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Rankings (as calculated using official data from the BBC's Election 2010 website)
Conservative target number 57 (swing to gain: 3.60%)
Labour target number 248 (swing to gain: 18.47%)
Liberal Democrat defence number 20 (majority of 7.20%)

There's a slight problem with saying Labour need a swing of 18.47%.

Let's see what happens if we apply that swing:

Con 39.33%
Lab 28.07%
LD: 28.06%

Labour has overtaken the LDs but the Tories are still on their 2010 percentage of 39.33%.

The BBC have forgotten to take into account the need to overtake the second-placed party.

That's why the actual swing required is 29.73%. (This is the method used by Rallings & Thrasher).

LabourList are continuing to insist that Eastleigh is Labour target no. 258. How frustrating:

labourlist.org/2013/02/labour-has-nothing-to-lose-in-eastleigh-and-should-throw-the-kitchen-sink-at-it/

[mboy]

Ironically, by throwing the kitchen sink at Eastleigh Labour could create a scenario where it DID have something lose. The kitchen-sink requires Labour to get in the high teens % or above otherwise Milliband will be accused of having no appeal in the south.

[Andrew_S]

I wonder what share of the vote will be needed to guarantee a win?

If you assume Labour will get at least 15%, UKIP 10% and Others 5%, that means 35% would be enough to win. The Tories were on 39% last time so they can "afford" to lose 4 percentage points. The LDs were on 46.5% so that can afford to lose up to 11.5 percentage points, based on those assumptions.

[Pete Whitehead]

Luke Akehurst said:

If UKIP also make a break-through we could see a scenario where all four parties are on between 20% and 30% and the winner sneaks through on 26-28%.

I agree with Luke

[Andrew_S]

Interesting article on the Eastleigh by-election from Peter Oborne:

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9847647/Could-Chris-Huhne-take-Nick-Clegg-or-David-Cameron-with-him.html

[East Anglian Lefty]

Feb 5, 2013 15:33:52 GMT mboy said:

Ironically, by throwing the kitchen sink at Eastleigh Labour could create a scenario where it DID have something lose. The kitchen-sink requires Labour to get in the high teens % or above otherwise Milliband will be accused of having no appeal in the south.

This presupposes that journalists would have any idea whether or not we were throwing the kitchen sink at the campaign. As not even those most in favour of contesting it hard are calling for a flashy campaign, I'm not sure that'd be true.

[Richard Allen]

In a completely unsurprising development Nigel Farage has said that he will not be the UKIP candidate.

[marksenior]

Farage is not to stand in Eastleigh , UKIP price now drifting out .

[Pete Whitehead]

I put money on UKIP at 8/1 now out at 12/1

[Andrew_S]

Is Paul Nuttal considering standing? I think UKIP could still win with someone like him as candidate.

[Pete Whitehead]

someone like him? What a gobby Scouser? Might as well stick with Ray Finch then

[Andrew_S]

Latest Ladbrokes odds:

LD: 11/10
Con: 11/10
Lab: 12/1
UKIP: 12/1
Greens: 250/1

sb.ladbrokes.com/Ladbrokes/mobwebapp/entryPoint.html?deepLinkCommandName=mainMenu&locale=en_GB#5

[Deleted]

Feb 5, 2013 17:24:30 GMT Richard Allen said:

In a completely unsurprising development Nigel Farage has said that he will not be the UKIP candidate.

chicken (Farage not you richard in case any doubt !!)

he had a great chance here to get national spotlight and embarrass all parties and he bottles it. Not prepared to stand in what should be fertile ground (despite small local presence.

says it all really about him

[marksenior]

Betfair odds currently similar to Ladbrokes

LD and Con both 5/4
UKIP 12/1
Labour 16/1
Any Other 54/1

Wagers matched by party

LD 60% Con 20% UKIP 15% Lab 5% Any Other 0.1%

[Khunanup]

Feb 5, 2013 18:40:06 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

someone like him? What a gobby Scouser? Might as well stick with Ray Finch then

Quality!