Eastleigh

[Deleted]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21320992

Huhne pleads guilty to perverting the course of justice - surely a byelection will result?

[Deleted]

2010:

Liberal Democrat 24,966 46.5%
Conservative 21,102 39.3%
Labour 5,153 9.6%
UKIP 1,933 3.6%
English Democrats 249 0.5%
Independent 154 0.3%
National Liberal Party 93 0.2%

Majority 3,864 7.2%
Turnout 53,650 69.3%

[East Anglian Lefty]

2011 local election results (no elections in Botley, but that's a safe LD ward):

www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2011/217

[Deleted]

Huhne has now announced he'll be resigning from Parliament

[Pete Whitehead]

Its convenient that Chandlers Ford and Hiltingbury didn't have elections so the consolidated results are those for the constituency (minus Botley). UKIP put in some good performances in 2012 and appear to be quite well organised here - indeed I think the candidate in 2010 was Ray Finch who was a regular on the old site

[Deleted]

well this makes for an interesting by election ... a coalition fight amongst themselves with Labour hoping to pick up a few thousand

[Andrew_S]

Any chance of a Labour victory? They weren't that far behind in the 1994 one.

[Deleted]

I would think not Andy, simply too far behind.

However, this is the ex seat of Stephen Milligan and was a very safe Tory seat which was turned orange over the years. LD machince will throw everything at this to hold it, I would think Cameron needs a boost from taking it.

We need around a 20% vote share to be happy, sit back and watch the other two tear into each other with no doubt UKIP sniffing around

[East Anglian Lefty]

Feb 4, 2013 11:25:04 GMT Andrew_S said:

Any chance of a Labour victory? They weren't that far behind in the 1994 one.

Almost 10,000 votes behind. If we throw resources at the seat, I guess we might just lead in the boxes from Eastleigh South. But given that the entire constituency will be swarming with LD activists and there'll be a strong tactical squeeze message, even that seems unlikely.

[Deleted]

If I was Labour HQ though I would put some effort here if simply to prove that we can hold up in souther seats. 2010 was so desperate for us in this type of seat we can only improve.

Pick a real good local candidate and who knows, is there one available down there ?

[markgoodair]

This will be the first byelection this parliament for a coalition held seat. Interesting to see how much each party attacks each other.

[mboy]

I have no doubt that Labour will throw a decent amount at this simply because there are so many Labour activists right now who would rather see Tory MPs elected than Lib Dem ones. The only question is whether Labour votes eating into the LD share will be balanced out by UKIP votes eating into the Tory share. My expectation is that it wont and this seat will go Tory.

[Deleted]

Based on previous by elections this parliament for those resigning when done something bad, that is unlikely to have an effect and the crime was so small I think most voters will not see that as an issue. So this becomes an election based on policy and given the strong LD LE results I expect a narrow hold.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Feb 4, 2013 11:44:16 GMT mboy said:

I have no doubt that Labour will throw a decent amount at this simply because there are so many Labour activists right now who would rather see Tory MPs elected than Lib Dem ones. The only question is whether Labour votes eating into the LD share will be balanced out by UKIP votes eating into the Tory share. My expectation is that it wont and this seat will go Tory.

The conclusion is doubtful given recent local election results. The argument, however, is the most specious piece of entitlement I've heard this year. The Lib Dems have no more god given right than anybody else to non-Tory votes, and have to earn them just the same as any other party would.

Feb 4, 2013 11:46:17 GMT @ianrobo said:

Based on previous by elections this parliament for those resigning when done something bad, that is unlikely to have an effect and the crime was so small I think most voters will not see that as an issue. So this becomes an election based on policy and given the strong LD LE results I expect a narrow hold.

Conspiracy to pervert the course of justice does not sound nice when you see it on a leaflet. If the Tories want to run a really nasty campaign, marital coercion is a phrase that sounds a lot uglier than it is in this case.

[Deleted]

Feb 4, 2013 11:46:17 GMT @ianrobo said:

Based on previous by elections this parliament for those resigning when done something bad, that is unlikely to have an effect and the crime was so small I think most voters will not see that as an issue. So this becomes an election based on policy and given the strong LD LE results I expect a narrow hold.

LibDems are evens, Tories 6/4, UKIP 6/1, Labour 10/1

[mboy]

I agree that the "average man in the street" thinks that this is a pretty trivial crime, and men in particular are pretty shocked that a decade-old traffic infraction could lead to utter career destruction at the hands of a scorned wife. I think women might see it a bit differently, from the adultery point of view, but this is a very traditional area, without the kind of feminist angle that might be present in, say, London.

[mboy]

{delete duplicate}

[Deleted]

If I were advising the icumbant Party in this by-election, I would be suggesting they get on with it quickly. A UKIP candidate could cut in to the Lib Dem and Tory vote quite savagely. What appears to be a two-horse race between the coalition partners may rapidly develop into something else.

I seem to recall on the old site being reliably told by a prominent intermittant Lib Dem poster there and here that there was no chance of a by-election taking place in Eastleigh.

But here we are....

[Deleted]

Feb 4, 2013 11:50:44 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

[Conspiracy to pervert the course of justice does not sound nice when you see it on a leaflet. If the Tories want to run a really nasty campaign, marital coercion is a phrase that sounds a lot uglier than it is in this case.

Of course but look at Mcshane, Barnsley and Oldham, no effect on the result with their issues. From what I read Huhne was widely liked there and seen as a good MP, many would be prepared to think a rash moment 10 years ago is not an hanging offence.

[Deleted]

Feb 4, 2013 11:44:16 GMT mboy said:

I have no doubt that Labour will throw a decent amount at this simply because there are so many Labour activists right now who would rather see Tory MPs elected than Lib Dem ones.

I suppose you assume we'd rather the organ grinder than the monkey ??

The comment says more about you & your self image than it does about us ....