mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,691
Member is Online
|
Post by mboy on Feb 4, 2013 12:10:08 GMT
You and EAL can huff and puff all you like, but I've been around enough and met enough activists of all parties to know the score. There will be enough in Labour who will argue that LD seats going Tory will enforce the binary Lab/Con option in the public mind and help wipe out the LDs so that it's worth it.
|
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 4, 2013 12:10:09 GMT
[Conspiracy to pervert the course of justice does not sound nice when you see it on a leaflet. If the Tories want to run a really nasty campaign, marital coercion is a phrase that sounds a lot uglier than it is in this case. Of course but look at Mcshane, Barnsley and Oldham, no effect on the result with their issues. From what I read Huhne was widely liked there and seen as a good MP, many would be prepared to think a rash moment 10 years ago is not an hanging offence. Oldham East & Saddleworth wasn't primarily about the by-election, but instead became a proxy verdict on the coalition. For all that, I reckon we'd have done a fair bit better without Woolas (although as he wasn't popular locally before, there wasn't much of a personal vote to lose). Barnsley Central is donkey in a rosette territory, in a way that no Lib Dem seat is. As for Rotherham, the entire campaign was a farce, but the circumstances of MacShane's resignation probably did help to crystallise the perception of Rotherham Labour as an overly entitled bunch of incompetents. In any case, this is quite a different seat from any of those. Lib Dem dominance here isn't due to the sudden conversion of half the constituency to the cause of liberalism. It's due to a couple of decades of shoe leather, competent local government and creating personal votes. It may be those personal votes have turned into institutional votes. But if not, scandal is much more harmful than in seats where people just vote the party. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2013 12:20:29 GMT
You and EAL can huff and puff all you like, but I've been around enough and met enough activists of all parties to know the score. & that says a deal about the company you keep .....  |
|
mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,691
Member is Online
|
Post by mboy on Feb 4, 2013 12:25:29 GMT
Indeed it does. Party activists! Not the kind of people you really want to live with.
|
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 4, 2013 12:38:34 GMT
You and EAL can huff and puff all you like, but I've been around enough and met enough activists of all parties to know the score. There will be enough in Labour who will argue that LD seats going Tory will enforce the binary Lab/Con option in the public mind and help wipe out the LDs so that it's worth it. There will be those individuals. Whether those individuals decide by-election strategy or just pontificate at branch meetings is another matter. Given that there are signs that the Labour-Lib Dem relations are improving at the top level, I would suggest your argument depends less upon an objective assessment of the facts and more upon your own attitude towards Labour. In any case, whilst we'll certainly campaign in the by-election (because there's no earthly reason why we would or should be expected to stand down), there's no necessary reason to believe that we'll spend up to the limit or call in activists from all over the country. Our finances are healthier than they were, but spending £100,000 in an unwinnable is not a particularly productive use of funds and we're better off taking advantage of LD and Conservative absences to concentrate on winnable divisions in May. |
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Feb 4, 2013 12:43:24 GMT
What's the earliest date the by-election could be held? If I were in the LD whips office I'd go for that.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Eastleigh
Feb 4, 2013 12:48:21 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2013 12:48:21 GMT
Nigel Farage to stand...?
(my laptop has died so can't provide my distinctive/rubbish graphs at the mo)
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2013 12:52:56 GMT
as I postted on the other thread Sky news were speculating he would
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Eastleigh
Feb 4, 2013 12:54:08 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2013 12:54:08 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Feb 4, 2013 12:57:34 GMT
O/T:
Been looking at Election Maps and noticed that bizarrely the town of Chandler's Ford is split between the Winchester and Romsey & Southampton North constituencies.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2013 12:59:33 GMT
Indeed it does. Party activists! Not the kind of people you really want to live with. I see, very dodgy, no further explanation needed ....  |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 4, 2013 13:01:32 GMT
Not really - the Valley Park ward may physically be part fo Chandlers Ford but it is in Test Valley district and a separate parish so it is more logical for it to be included with Romsey
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2013 13:13:35 GMT
well he is a fool (see his comments about taking away wheelchair ramps in schools) so I would imagine he is trying to find some publicity after the Sun sacked him for being boring. |
|
Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922 
|
Post by Harry Hayfield on Feb 4, 2013 13:21:16 GMT
This will be the first byelection this parliament for a coalition held seat. Interesting to see how much each party attacks each other. So what was Corby then? |
|
Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
|
Post by Harry Hayfield on Feb 4, 2013 13:23:43 GMT
Nigel Farage to stand...? (my laptop has died so can't provide my distinctive/rubbish graphs at the mo) Allow me to assist with some help from the Map it website  That is did go according to plan, try this site instead mapit.mysociety.org/area/65881.html |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2013 13:24:10 GMT
I think Mark means this will be the first time a government could both lose and gain a seat ...
I presume this happened in the past where a coalition govt had a seat where the two main contenders were from the coalition. In this case of course Labour can not win unless in a real freak.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Eastleigh
Feb 4, 2013 13:27:29 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2013 13:27:29 GMT
Nigel Farage to stand...? (my laptop has died so can't provide my distinctive/rubbish graphs at the mo) Allow me to assist with some help from the Map it website That is did go according to plan, try this site instead mapit.mysociety.org/area/65881.html I meant my results graphs but thanks for the map. |
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Feb 4, 2013 13:31:32 GMT
There is a possible difficulty for Labour, which is that if they try to maximise their vote they'll probably cause the Tories to win, but if they don't bother campaigning properly they may be beaten by UKIP into fourth place.
|
|
|
|
Post by thirdchill on Feb 4, 2013 13:31:52 GMT
This and Corby have generally been the only interesting by-elections this parliament (apart from the UKIP surge in Rotherham). The factors which will affect the result are as follows:
1. Who the lib dems and tories pick. If the lib dems pick a really good local candidate (and with Eastleigh there should be quite a few possible candidates) and fight a local campaign, then we will find it tough to win. Both parties would be well advised to pick local candidates, and not seek to impose a candidate on the constituency.
2. Labour's campaign. Labour should be able to increase their percentage here as they should be able to hold a large proprotion of their 2010 votes and probably gain some. It really depends on how soft the lib dem vote is.
3. UKIP and Nigel Farage. Although there will be some lib dems who will switch to him, the higher profile the UKIP campaign has, the better it is for the lib dems (unless UKIP perform even better than Rotherham).
My prediction currently is lib dem hold. Local elections may not be a perfect indicator but despite the circumstances of Chris Hulne, this is easilyone of their best performing areas locally (along with Westmorland & Lonsdale). The lib dem activists will be out in force and they will be working this seat very hard.
|
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Feb 4, 2013 13:34:17 GMT
My aunt lives in this constituency and has an accessible letter box so I must warn her to put up a no election leaflets poster.
|
|
