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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 4, 2013 18:58:04 GMT
I would be amazed if Farage wins. He would have a better chance in somewhere like New Forest West. There are too many Labour and LibDem inclined voters here. You make the mistake of confusing voters for a party with their members or activists. These are not all doktorb clones who rant about litte Englanders and fair votes. there's plenty of potential for UKIP to nick LD votes in a place like this, while the moderately strong Labour vote just ensures that a relatively low winning share might be needed to win |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2013 19:03:05 GMT
I would be amazed if Farage wins. He would have a better chance in somewhere like New Forest West. There are too many Labour and LibDem inclined voters here. there is as much chance as UKIP winning here as for Labour, however the betting is 11/2 UKIP and 11/1 Lab think of that ?? however surely Farage has to look at this as a chance to go from nowhere to mid teens/low 20's ? especially as I would think certain areas contain a lot of core UKIP voters esp amongst over 60's ? |
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Post by greatkingrat on Feb 4, 2013 19:06:35 GMT
2009 European results for Eastleigh borough
Con 9745 (27.8%)
LD 8724 (24.9%)
UKIP 7466 (21.3%)
Grn 3067 (8.8%)
Lab 1969 (5.6%)
BNP 1396 (4.0%)
Oth 2642 (7.5%)
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 4, 2013 19:25:18 GMT
I would be amazed if Farage wins. He would have a better chance in somewhere like New Forest West. There are too many Labour and LibDem inclined voters here. The interesting thing is that the potential UKIP vote may be higher in New Forest West but they have less chance of winning there because the Tory vote is always going to be above 40%. Eastleigh isn't one of UKIP's best seats but the potential split between Con, Lab and LD makes it a better prospect for them in a by-election. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2013 19:37:08 GMT
I think this'll be a hard one for Labour to progress in because the resilient local Lib Dem activists will be reinforced by the impressive Lib Dems from Portsmouth and the Tories will struggle to match the Lib Dem campaign.
I would go so far as to say that Labour would have gained this seat in 1997 if it wasn't for the sad demise of Mr Milligan and the byelection.
If Labour manages to do well (20-25%) and the Lib Dems lose, then look to a Labour resurgence in the seat at the next election.
As it stands, I see it being a Lib Dem hold due to unhappiness with the Tories and the intervention of UKIP, with or without Mr Farage.
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 4, 2013 19:51:43 GMT
2009 European results for Eastleigh borough Con 9745 (27.8%) LD 8724 (24.9%) UKIP 7466 (21.3%) Grn 3067 (8.8%) Lab 1969 (5.6%) BNP 1396 (4.0%) Oth 2642 (7.5%) Those figures suggest the Greens could do okay in the by-election (whatever that means), thereby reducing the share needed to win still further. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2013 19:57:53 GMT
been having a chat with a labour activist from there on another forum. He says no real chance the LD's will lose this, the organisation is just too strong and the local party actually very good locally.
We both agree the best result for us is a Tory poor second and that will just open up the splits even further in the Tories.
In 1992 they polled over 50% there which was just higher than 87, how many tory seats could say that and obviously Milligans demise changed it all. If they polled under 30% that would be a disaster for Cameron. Under 35% and serious questions will be asked.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 4, 2013 19:58:31 GMT
Its worth remembering that when Chris Huhne was first elected in 2005 with a majority of 568, the LDs were over 7,000 ahead in the county council elections held on the same day.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2013 20:09:48 GMT
interesting comment from my favourite Tory writer
Iain Martin @iainmartin1
V embarrassing for UKIP if Farage doesn't stand now, having said he's "thinking hard" about it: thought about it, didn't fancy it.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 4, 2013 20:57:11 GMT
Its worth remembering that when Chris Huhne was first elected in 2005 with a majority of 568, the LDs were over 7,000 ahead in the county council elections held on the same day. Excellent point. Doesn't that hold - if less dramatically - for the borough elections in 2010? Just going off memory here. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 4, 2013 21:29:03 GMT
reinforced by the impressive Lib Dems from Portsmouth Oh, get away with yer!! OBN Needless to say we will be there again and again and again. Interesting that Keith [House], leader of Eastleigh council for the last 19 years and us on Hants CC, has ruled himself out of being the candidate (my first choice, but I can understand why he wouldn't want it). There are however excellent others who could do the job, and one in particular I think would be the favourite who is also a Borough councillor. I think the Tories will have to bring in from outside (but not too far) to get a decent candidate and if he wants/is able to do it Labour should run Pete Luffman, former Eastleigh South councillor. It'll be fun!  |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 4, 2013 21:39:41 GMT
Its worth remembering that when Chris Huhne was first elected in 2005 with a majority of 568, the LDs were over 7,000 ahead in the county council elections held on the same day. Excellent point. Doesn't that hold - if less dramatically - for the borough elections in 2010? Just going off memory here. 2010 Local election results: Liberal Democrat 22307 53.2% Conservative 13376 31.9% Labour 4180 10.0% UK Independence Party 1954 4.7% Independent 83 0.2% |
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Post by marksenior on Feb 4, 2013 21:56:46 GMT
Maria Hutchings seems to think she will be the Conservative candidate .
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Post by froome on Feb 4, 2013 22:20:57 GMT
How will UKIP make their selection? Wlll it be a case of Farage selecting himself?  |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,005
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 4, 2013 22:21:22 GMT
Maria Hutchings seems to think she will be the Conservative candidate . From leader of Eastleigh council's Facebook 'Former Eastleigh Conservative candidate's website has been taken down.' Can't see her being readopted. |
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andrea
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrea on Feb 4, 2013 22:42:10 GMT
Maria Hutchings seems to think she will be the Conservative candidate . From leader of Eastleigh council's Facebook 'Former Eastleigh Conservative candidate's website has been taken down.' Can't see her being readopted. The 2010 Portsmouth South candidate also seems to think Hutchings will be the candidate. She tweeted: Pleased that Chris Huhne has done the honourable thing, about time. Look forward to campaigning for Maria Hutchings who will make great MP. Mail's James Chapman says Hutchings will be appointed as PPC soon. |
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Post by marksenior on Feb 5, 2013 8:18:38 GMT
Maria Hutchings seems to think she will be the Conservative candidate . From leader of Eastleigh council's Facebook 'Former Eastleigh Conservative candidate's website has been taken down.' Can't see her being readopted. I think she would be a poor choice but can see a big row amongst Conservatives locally if she is not readopted . |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 5, 2013 9:21:02 GMT
Interesting that Keith [House], leader of Eastleigh council for the last 19 years and us on Hants CC, has ruled himself out of being the candidate (my first choice, but I can understand why he wouldn't want it). There are however excellent others who could do the job, and one in particular I think would be the favourite who is also a Borough councillor. Louise Bloom, former London Assembly member (2000-02) and current Eastleigh borough councillor, also partner of Keith House, is the name I have heard. |
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Post by thirdchill on Feb 5, 2013 10:08:20 GMT
I have read comments on several sites suggesting an easy tory win. Those comments are likely to be from people who have absolutely no knowledge of the local election scene in Eastleigh. We will have to work so hard to stand a chance of winning, and even then we might well fail if the lib dems stand a popular local candidate.
Am sure there were of 6/4 on the lib dems on one site (against 1/2 for the tories winning). If I were a betting man and with no political alleigance, I would have been sorely tempted to place a good amount of money on the lib dems with those odds.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 5, 2013 11:16:43 GMT
Wasn't the widespread view last time that Hutchings was totally f***ing awful?? If so, it is somewhat baffling that local Tories remain so attached to her - maybe it might help explain their lack of success recently  |
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