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Post by rivers10 on Jan 26, 2021 20:57:33 GMT
Ok. Well I don’t think, as the cliche has it, you need a crystal ball when you have the book. Leadership is vital. No escaping it. I agree with some of what was said earlier about Starmer’s ideas- I think he knows what needs to be done. But he hasn’t the charisma of a Blair to get it across. I think he’ll make a dent. It would help if he could bring one or two heavyweights into his shadow cabinet now- the cabinet isn’t particularly strong , but the shadows are as ineffective as I can ever recall. In the meantime you are still saddled with too many who resist what he’s trying to do because they don’t want power on that basis. It’ll take another defeat I think before they change. As for your “ overwhelming evidence” well- I’m underwhelmed! It’s absurdly early to draw conclusions about Brexit, and thus far the problems are hardly “ massive”- they are paltry and far less ( possibly because of Covid) than I expected . Whether they are temporary , will get worse or better, remains to be seen. “ World Covid death rates” should prompt some rather obvious caveats before leaping enthusiastically to conclusions. Firstly, how many countries in the world are a) capable and b) trustworthy when producing such data? I’d suggest rather few. Then of the remaining ones -which are usefully comparable? What you get down to it, for us, if you are being serious as opposed to scoring political points it is basically Europe. And then you need to drill down further between the European countries to look at how they each gather and present data, and then, and pretty much only then produce the useful questions as to whether particular actions of governments , among other variables, can explain variances. But what is he trying to do? If it's a choice between the Tories and centrist Labour I'm utterly indifferent. Power should be to do something. I don't see what this is. At this point I'm settling for just getting the Tories out of power and reforming politics in such a way that they're relegated to the insane fringe that they are After we've done that the proper politics can start
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 26, 2021 20:59:06 GMT
Can I ask you then hengo in all good faith, what sort of circumstances you would foresee in the near future which would have to happen to result in , say, a regular 10 pt lead for Labour in the polls? I cant believe that you dont seem to agree that things [just about everything right now] is going really badly?? You may dispute my "facts" but there is overwhelming evidence to support them! So can you list 2 or 3 things which could happen which would make you think "well, in view of the state of the country right now, I would expect Labour to be well ahead in the polls"? I personally think that most ‘ normal’ people, rightly or wrongly, do not see COVID as a particularly political issue. They see it as a bad thing which we’ve just got to manage through. I have at least 2 non political non Conservative voting friends whose opinion of Boris has improved quite considerably through COVID- their view is currently that no one would have done any better and They see as it as a terrible thing that we’ve just got to get through. They are much more anti media than anti government. It’s as if they have discounted the political aspect. Again, rightly or wrongly they are completely convinced that Starmer changes his mind weekly- and is a smarmy lawyer. I just don’t think COVID is an issue that will change lots of votes. There might be one seemingly minor aspect of it that will suddenly create some Conservative- Labour switchers, but I think to make more progress Starmer might need to wait until the agenda is something else. I also agree that he would be helped by having a couple of heavier weights around him on the front bench. I think people with an interest in politics are sometimes guilty of assuming that others have the interest to create logical political thoughts. I live in the South West where direct Conservative/ Labour switchers are pretty rare and Starmer doesn’t need my friends to vote Labour but if anything he needs them to vote Lib Dem. Both those friends are normally Lib Dem voters, but if I had to guess at the moment one would vote Lib Dem and the other Conservative.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 26, 2021 20:59:54 GMT
But what is he trying to do? If it's a choice between the Tories and centrist Labour I'm utterly indifferent. Power should be to do something. I don't see what this is. At this point I'm settling for just getting the Tories out of power and reforming politics in such a way that they're relegated to the insane fringe that they are After we've done that the proper politics can start That means electoral reform so a pre election pact is necessary
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 26, 2021 21:00:30 GMT
"too many conflicting variables" ?? What are you on about? If the government isnt responsible, ultimately, for the "state of the nation"; then what's the point?
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hengo
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Post by hengo on Jan 26, 2021 21:04:30 GMT
Completely missed the point (possibly deliberately as its a tough ask!) I was asking what "events" need to get worse and how much worse, before you expect to see a big shift in the opinion polls. I didnt mean your opinion about Starmer. Half the country would be pressed to recognise him, so bringing heavyweights into the shadow cabinet isnt going to change the polls. I was hoping you'd maybe say something like: 250,000 deaths. Massive queues at ports for many months on end, shortages of certain foods. 500,000 job losses etc etc? Where is the tipping point in the minds of the public , as we clearly havent reached it yet based on recent polls. Well I mentioned one in a previous post: If our decision to break from the EU procurement for the vaccine , opposed by Labour at the time , had gone wrong and we were now in the reverse position and without vaccine while the EU had been effective then the government would be toast. So anything like that. Of course, those things you mention (Covid deaths excepted as that would depend on the wider progress of the pandemic) would be damaging. I’m not sure whether the inevitable jobs losses will have political impact- the Tory record on job creation is strong and we all know that there is an economic price to be paid. But Labour needs to be credible again on the economy. All the vapouring about the government being corrupt and evil etc is just the same meaningless hot air Leftists have always indulged in with every Conservative government. It converts no one while getting in the way of Labour actually focussing on what they need to do, as Blair and Brown did.
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Jan 26, 2021 21:05:05 GMT
I get all the "rallying to the flag" or government stuff as to why the Tories are not being massacred in the polls, There is something in that, although when you have cabinet minister saying your relatives died because they were old and fat surely even those remaining loyal to the government of the day (not necessarily the Tories) will begin to aak questions.
What really concerns me from a Labour perspective, is just how weak Starmer is on the future. He may criticise, rightly at times, he make make some good points in the House. But at a time of national crisis where is the thinking about how life can be different, very different. Surely many do not want lockdown to end just to go back to the same old same old. We need to hear from him what would Labour do, how would society and individual lives change for the better. I just don't hear this and sure the point that Governments lose elections is a valid one, but oppositions must also provide a reason to vote for them. Currently, I am not sure there is such a reason.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jan 26, 2021 21:09:35 GMT
Can I ask you then hengo in all good faith, what sort of circumstances you would foresee in the near future which would have to happen to result in , say, a regular 10 pt lead for Labour in the polls? I cant believe that you dont seem to agree that things [just about everything right now] is going really badly?? You may dispute my "facts" but there is overwhelming evidence to support them! So can you list 2 or 3 things which could happen which would make you think "well, in view of the state of the country right now, I would expect Labour to be well ahead in the polls"? I personally think that most ‘ normal’ people, rightly or wrongly, do not see COVID as a particularly political issue. They see it as a bad thing which we’ve just got to manage through. I have at least 2 non political non Conservative voting friends whose opinion of Boris has improved quite considerably through COVID- their view is currently that no one would have done any better and They see as it as a terrible thing that we’ve just got to get through. They are much more anti media than anti government. It’s as if they have discounted the political aspect. Again, rightly or wrongly they are completely convinced that Starmer changes his mind weekly- and is a smarmy lawyer. I just don’t think COVID is an issue that will change lots of votes. There might be one seemingly minor aspect of it that will suddenly create some Conservative- Labour switchers, but I think to make more progress Starmer might need to wait until the agenda is something else. I also agree that he would be helped by having a couple of heavier weights around him on the front bench. I think people with an interest in politics are sometimes guilty of assuming that others have the interest to create logical political thoughts. I live in the South West where direct Conservative/ Labour switchers are pretty rare so Starmer doesn’t need them to vote Labour but if anything he needs them to vote Lib Dem. Both those friends are normally Lib Dem voters, but if I had to guess at the moment one would vote Lib Dem and the other Conservative. Agreed. I've always felt that the Covid problem for the government isn't the actual virus, it is the likely effect on the economy after the epidemic is over. People do tend to blame the government if they are out of a job even though it is usually down to global economic forces, they want to know what HMG is going to do about it. This is an unprecedented recession as it's not caused by people having no money to spend, it's caused by not being allowed to. If there is a spring back as people with incomes are allowed to spend accumulated cash the government will do fine. If the damage to business is such that many people have no money to spend when allowed to, it becomes trickier. I can imagine something like the mid-80s where some people have cash to splash while others have it grim.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jan 26, 2021 21:15:38 GMT
And the LibDems have to all intents and purposes disappeared from national view. It is a critical mass thing and hard to have a presence with so few MPs but did they really have to choose someone who is on the same boredom level as Starmer as leader? That matters because Labour need a slice of that Tory vote to shift to the LibDems If the object is to move a slice of the Tory vote to the Lib Dems, Davey is better placed than the alternative. The Daily Mail et al would have a field day with Layla Moran.
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spqr
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Post by spqr on Jan 26, 2021 21:18:25 GMT
"too many conflicting variables" ?? What are you on about? If the government isnt responsible, ultimately, for the "state of the nation"; then what's the point? As in, there are lots of variables (or factors, if you prefer) that determine party ratings in polls. Not all of these variables head in the same direction. Thus, to give a fictional example, a loss of 500,000 jobs in one week will usually be a thoroughly bad thing for a government, but if it happens at the same time as a successful defence against a meteor attack (or, to be more realistic, if, say, the government has launched a reasonably successful vaccine strategy in the midst of a virus pandemic) then it might not matter as much. No doubt it will stagger you that pros and cons exist at the same time, and that voters often make their decisions on this basis, but there we are. You'll notice, by the way, that I never expressed any opinion about whether governments should be held 'responsible' or not. That's a conclusion you've jumped to by yourself.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 26, 2021 21:43:18 GMT
And the LibDems have to all intents and purposes disappeared from national view. It is a critical mass thing and hard to have a presence with so few MPs but did they really have to choose someone who is on the same boredom level as Starmer as leader? That matters because Labour need a slice of that Tory vote to shift to the LibDems If the object is to move a slice of the Tory vote to the Lib Dems, Davey is better placed than the alternative. The Daily Mail et al would have a field day with Layla Moran. I assume that's why he was elected, given there's no other obvious reason. But its not working. It's not easy when there's so few to choose from but there's no obvious route out of where they are now
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 27, 2021 0:02:51 GMT
Im all up for the progressive alliance bit, which must be coupled with voting reform, but I like to think that we in the UK havent quite gone as far down the QAnon/Fake News rabbithole as they have in America. If we have, then we truly are REFUK'd! I'm in Liverpool, a Remain voting city thay boycotts the Scum And yet I have multiple relatives who quote QAnon esque bullcrap on a regular basis, low and behold they've all become Tory voters the last few years after voting Labour their whole lives This is in Liverpool so I shidder to think what its like elsewhere We're deep down the rabbit hole my friend So, on the whole, by and large, in the round. etc. You are pretty happy with how things are panning out? Confident that Labour will sweep to power in 2024 with public cheering? And the vile Tories will crash and burn and never win another seat let alone another election ........ ever? He He He He. I say Grytepype. I think I've found another customer. Open another case of Momentum quality snake oil.
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 27, 2021 0:15:11 GMT
But Im not asking it of "hard baked Tories". Im asking what does it take to turn a floating voter these days? Tory vote share will never get below low-30s; so Im looking at the extra 10% that clearly are movable; but how do we move them? Unless Hengo is considering his response or anyone else from the blue team wants to have a crack, I guess there is no answer to my question... Well: as a soft-centre Tory who has voted Labour I might suggest Stop being pro Muslim Advocate a return to capital punishment Reduce the duty on beer by 50% Abolish the TV licence fee Chuck out illegal immigrants And you are right back in business with your hardcore WWC vote and in with a chance. Especially with the Conservatives giving away money they don't have like mad fools and embracing Global Warming fuckwit nonsense, Green policies and doing nothing at all about immigration. What you have to ask yourselves is 'Do you seriously want to win?' Or just piss into the wind like the past three times?
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jan 27, 2021 9:59:47 GMT
But Im not asking it of "hard baked Tories". Im asking what does it take to turn a floating voter these days? Tory vote share will never get below low-30s; so Im looking at the extra 10% that clearly are movable; but how do we move them? Unless Hengo is considering his response or anyone else from the blue team wants to have a crack, I guess there is no answer to my question... Well: as a soft-centre Tory who has voted Labour I might suggest Stop being pro Muslim Advocate a return to capital punishment Reduce the duty on beer by 50% Abolish the TV licence fee Chuck out illegal immigrants And you are right back in business with your hardcore WWC vote and in with a chance. Especially with the Conservatives giving away money they don't have like mad fools and embracing Global Warming fuckwit nonsense, Green policies and doing nothing at all about immigration. What you have to ask yourselves is 'Do you seriously want to win?' Or just piss into the wind like the past three times? soft-centre?
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 27, 2021 10:07:59 GMT
Well: as a soft-centre Tory who has voted Labour I might suggest Stop being pro Muslim Advocate a return to capital punishment Reduce the duty on beer by 50% Abolish the TV licence fee Chuck out illegal immigrants And you are right back in business with your hardcore WWC vote and in with a chance. Especially with the Conservatives giving away money they don't have like mad fools and embracing Global Warming fuckwit nonsense, Green policies and doing nothing at all about immigration. What you have to ask yourselves is 'Do you seriously want to win?' Or just piss into the wind like the past three times? soft-centre? We-ell ! Perhaps there is a very large and very hard nut in the middle as well.
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jan 27, 2021 10:10:55 GMT
soft-centre? We-ell ! Perhaps there is a very large and very hard nut in the middle as well. Good! i was beginning to think you were going 'sappy' like Jack Driscoll in King Kong!
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 27, 2021 10:15:42 GMT
But Im not asking it of "hard baked Tories". Im asking what does it take to turn a floating voter these days? Tory vote share will never get below low-30s; so Im looking at the extra 10% that clearly are movable; but how do we move them? Unless Hengo is considering his response or anyone else from the blue team wants to have a crack, I guess there is no answer to my question... Well: as a soft-centre Tory who has voted Labour I might suggest Stop being pro Muslim Advocate a return to capital punishment Reduce the duty on beer by 50% Abolish the TV licence fee Chuck out illegal immigrants And you are right back in business with your hardcore WWC vote and in with a chance. Especially with the Conservatives giving away money they don't have like mad fools and embracing Global Warming fuckwit nonsense, Green policies and doing nothing at all about immigration. What you have to ask yourselves is 'Do you seriously want to win?' Or just piss into the wind like the past three times? 1. No votes in being anti-Muslim as that view is well catered for elsewhere. But it would lose votes from people who understandably wouldn't vote for a party they perceived as against them 2. No, because it's not a party issue anyway and I shouldn't think any Labour MP would vote for it because they correctly judge it to be wrong on an individual level and ineffective in its wider aims 3. Indifferent. Unlikely to happen in isolation, though the issue of duty in general needs looking at 4. Depends what it was replaced with. I would rather have the BBC despite its faults than go down the American route 5. Already in law. Trouble is that sort of approach would immediately lose the votes Labour has. Hence the sensible thing for them to do is to abandon majoritarian tendencies and recognise the need for electoral reform and realignment. To get that they need a temporary arrangement with other parties. WWC votes alone can't win elections. Without the Brexit issue it's likely we will end up back in hung parliament territory anyway. No point in "winning" to do things which are so far from what the party is there to do.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 27, 2021 12:05:47 GMT
Just one bit of advice to people who get depressed by them - never, ever, take focus groups and vox pops seriously.
Literally 99% of the time, they are used to back a pre-determined agenda.
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pl
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Post by pl on Jan 27, 2021 12:15:46 GMT
Just one bit of advice to people who get depressed by them - never, ever, take focus groups and vox pops seriously. Literally 99% of the time, they are used to back a pre-determined agenda. A properly done focus group can have terrific value if done properly. But very often they're not! Vox Pops are just plain voodoo!
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 27, 2021 12:18:53 GMT
Focus groups originally had a valid purpose in market research, their modern use in politics is almost solely to reinforce narratives however.
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pl
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Post by pl on Jan 27, 2021 12:28:29 GMT
Focus groups originally had a valid purpose in market research, their modern use in politics is almost solely to reinforce narratives however. Indeed. A think they've lost more and more currency as the science of polling and market research has improved. It's always interested looking at the WW2 era Mass Observation work, and to compare it to modern practice.
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