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Post by manchesterman on Jan 27, 2021 14:11:56 GMT
Thank you for your invaluable input Carlton, but I dont think you're the type of "floating voter" i was looking for
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 27, 2021 15:31:17 GMT
Referring back to my quest on the previous page, I'm genuinely intrigued/puzzled why things like this dont seem to be impacting on your average voter? It is the biggest story in town and this is a BBC headline so it cant be passed off as "chatter amongst the politically engaged" www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55820178The voting public have a choice between believing/trusting the scientists or the Johnson government on these issues. Unless this is a hangover from brexit about "enough of experts", I cant understand how they would weigh up the 2 sides and edge towards supporting the government's interpretation? I genuinely wasnt trying to be provocative or make a politically-loaded point in my original post, I genuinely wanted to understand why floating voters clearly arent blaming the government for where we are now and what it would take for there to be a "tipping point" where they do blame them. I was just enquiring in the best traditions of psephology
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,109
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Post by Jack on Jan 27, 2021 15:48:23 GMT
I think it's to do with the fact that the opposition supported almost everything the government did.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 27, 2021 15:52:50 GMT
Referring back to my quest on the previous page, I'm genuinely intrigued/puzzled why things like this dont seem to be impacting on your average voter? It is the biggest story in town and this is a BBC headline so it cant be passed off as "chatter amongst the politically engaged" www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55820178The voting public have a choice between believing/trusting the scientists or the Johnson government on these issues. Unless this is a hangover from brexit about "enough of experts", I cant understand how they would weigh up the 2 sides and edge towards supporting the government's interpretation? I genuinely wasnt trying to be provocative or make a politically-loaded point in my original post, I genuinely wanted to understand why floating voters clearly arent blaming the government for where we are now and what it would take for there to be a "tipping point" where they do blame them. I was just enquiring in the best traditions of psephology Maybe it's because many people believe the reason this country has had one of the highest death tolls is due to factors such as (a) high population density, (b) high percentage of elderly people, (c) high percentage of people with obesity/diabetes, (d) high level of people from all over the world arriving, leaving, staying for a while compared to other countries. None of those things are the fault of Johnson or the government and were already present before the pandemic started.
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 27, 2021 15:57:46 GMT
I would dispute that (d) couldnt have been prevented as it has in many other countries. But I accept the other points are not of the govts doing. Still begs the question when scientists say the death toll is higher because of poor decisions the govt made; that enough people take the govts side over the scientists..
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Post by ibfc on Jan 27, 2021 16:08:28 GMT
That can be because scientists aren’t one defined body. The article quotes a couple of scientists as saying something. That is not the same as a scientific fact and it will probably carry less weight than normal in a situation like this where they are describing a second order effect of a scientific position. Each decision a government makes has multiple second odds effects on society and economy and it is reasonable to believe a government will be able to evaluate those better than scientists. This view has probably strengthened as the pandemic has gone on as it becomes clear that each decision taken with the aim of reducing the spread of the pandemic has other trade offs.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,839
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Post by jamie on Jan 27, 2021 16:54:12 GMT
Just one bit of advice to people who get depressed by them - never, ever, take focus groups and vox pops seriously. Literally 99% of the time, they are used to back a pre-determined agenda. By way of example, a recent focus group (I think the LBC one) had half its sample being 2019 Labour voters who are now undecided. Given that Labour lost the last election by 12% and are now neck and neck with the Tories, there won’t be many people in this category so they aren’t very representative on the electorate or voters Labour needs to win over. Furthermore, these people all apparently voted for the Jeremy Corbyn led Labour Party but spent the entire focus group spouting anti-Labour talking points from the right, so at best they must have went on a very recent ideological conversion...
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Post by matureleft on Jan 27, 2021 17:03:09 GMT
Referring back to my quest on the previous page, I'm genuinely intrigued/puzzled why things like this dont seem to be impacting on your average voter? It is the biggest story in town and this is a BBC headline so it cant be passed off as "chatter amongst the politically engaged" www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55820178The voting public have a choice between believing/trusting the scientists or the Johnson government on these issues. Unless this is a hangover from brexit about "enough of experts", I cant understand how they would weigh up the 2 sides and edge towards supporting the government's interpretation? I genuinely wasnt trying to be provocative or make a politically-loaded point in my original post, I genuinely wanted to understand why floating voters clearly arent blaming the government for where we are now and what it would take for there to be a "tipping point" where they do blame them. I was just enquiring in the best traditions of psephology Maybe it's because many people believe the reason this country has had one of the highest death tolls is due to factors such as (a) high population density, (b) high percentage of elderly people, (c) high percentage of people with obesity/diabetes, (d) high level of people from all over the world arriving, leaving, staying for a while compared to other countries. None of those things are the fault of Johnson or the government and were already present before the pandemic started. At some point we'll have a public inquiry in which these, and other, reasons for our appalling outcome will be explored. The fact is that we have had a higher mortality rate than almost anywhere else in the world. That includes the USA where obesity is much higher, population density and poverty in cities is also high. That includes Italy (and of course Japan) with a higher elderly population (and some pretty densely populated cities). In fact we have one of the younger populations in Western Europe - younger than Italy, Greece, Germany, France, Sweden for example. On population density the Netherlands is denser than the UK, as is Belgium (that has been hit even harder than us), and Japan.
We have tended to accept the explanations you've given. They have some merit and should make us think hard about our public health policies and about housing provision, for example. But they seem very unlikely to be sufficient to explain what has happened. That's particularly so as, unlike in parts of the USA (which has suffered less than us proportionately in deaths) there's been little attempt to trade the economy for mortality - our economy is comfortably the worst hit of the G7 states - we lost 10% of our GDP in 2020.
I've said it before. Whatever view one might take as to how this has been handled it is a time for humility. The UK record is frankly terrible on all fronts, bar the progress so far on the vaccine. We have a great deal to learn. We haven't done that very much and we need to do it now pretty quickly. This virus will be with us for a long time and will need to be built into our thoughts and actions for years ahead.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,839
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Post by jamie on Jan 27, 2021 17:09:06 GMT
I think people are underestimating the extent to which the public still view politics through a crisis lens. When the pandemic originally became a highly significant issue for the UK, the government’s polling surged. Over time there has been more criticism of the government’s approach and Labour now have a much less unpopular leader (emphasis on less unpopular rather than more popular) but we are still very much in the crisis and the public view it as such. The government’s handling of the pandemic polls poorly, but I suspect there is still many people giving the benefit of the doubt to the government for what is an unprecedented situation and one in which the Conservative Party have been more proactive in tackling than many people would have expected (even if they want them to go further). Just as you may ask why Labour aren’t ahead, you could ask, given the continued polling bounce seen in so many other countries and the fact they won an election by 12% immediately before the crisis, why aren’t the Conservative ahead?
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hengo
Conservative
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Post by hengo on Jan 27, 2021 18:15:01 GMT
Trying to blame Johnson for the death toll is difficult for Labour in a number of ways- some mentioned above. I’ve just heard the shadow Home Secretary try to do so on the radio and left completely floundering when asked to explain the death toll in Wales, if the political decision making were to blame.
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Post by tonygreaves on Jan 27, 2021 19:28:21 GMT
At the moment, how they will vote at the next election (or even how they would vote now) is not at the top of people's minds. People are struggling to get through their ordinary daily lives - and that is true whether they are shut up at home for 24 hours a day or whether they are trying to juggle jobs and kids and less money and looking after relatives and not getting the virus and coping with lots of simple things that are now a lot more complicated...
They are aware of the Government because it is thrust into their faces all day every day. But the processes of politics including the opposition parties are not something they pay much attention to (insofar as they are taking place anyway).
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 27, 2021 21:00:24 GMT
Well: as a soft-centre Tory who has voted Labour I might suggest Stop being pro Muslim Advocate a return to capital punishment Reduce the duty on beer by 50% Abolish the TV licence fee Chuck out illegal immigrants And you are right back in business with your hardcore WWC vote and in with a chance. Especially with the Conservatives giving away money they don't have like mad fools and embracing Global Warming fuckwit nonsense, Green policies and doing nothing at all about immigration. What you have to ask yourselves is 'Do you seriously want to win?' Or just piss into the wind like the past three times? 1. No votes in being anti-Muslim as that view is well catered for elsewhere. But it would lose votes from people who understandably wouldn't vote for a party they perceived as against them 2. No, because it's not a party issue anyway and I shouldn't think any Labour MP would vote for it because they correctly judge it to be wrong on an individual level and ineffective in its wider aims 3. Indifferent. Unlikely to happen in isolation, though the issue of duty in general needs looking at 4. Depends what it was replaced with. I would rather have the BBC despite its faults than go down the American route 5. Already in law. Trouble is that sort of approach would immediately lose the votes Labour has. Hence the sensible thing for them to do is to abandon majoritarian tendencies and recognise the need for electoral reform and realignment. To get that they need a temporary arrangement with other parties. WWC votes alone can't win elections. Without the Brexit issue it's likely we will end up back in hung parliament territory anyway. No point in "winning" to do things which are so far from what the party is there to do. I wasn't being 'entirely' serious Mike, but I think you knew that.
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Post by hullenedge on Feb 2, 2021 20:48:09 GMT
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Feb 2, 2021 20:50:26 GMT
VI polls have been supremely boring since about last summer.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Feb 2, 2021 20:55:12 GMT
VI polls have been supremely boring since about last summer. Just as well no-one's been allowed to vote on anything (south of the border anyway). (Insert Muttley type grumbling noises here)
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 2, 2021 21:00:20 GMT
VI polls have been supremely boring since about last summer. Just as well no-one's been allowed to vote on anything (south of the border anyway). (Insert Muttley type grumbling noises here)
there's some grumbling in there too.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Feb 2, 2021 21:19:05 GMT
Just as well no-one's been allowed to vote on anything (south of the border anyway). (Insert Muttley type grumbling noises here)
there's some grumbling in there too.
I knew I could rely on you, but thanks all the same.
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Post by london(ex)tory on Feb 2, 2021 22:46:02 GMT
VI polls have been supremely boring since about last summer. They may or may not stay that way for a while. Things were very tedious between June 2017 and February 2019 and then it all went crazy...
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,109
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Post by Jack on Feb 9, 2021 16:42:28 GMT
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Post by justin124 on Feb 16, 2021 20:24:10 GMT
Con 41%(-2) Lab 39%(+1) LD 8%(+1) Grn 5%(+1) SNP 5%(-) (!5th February 2021)
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