spqr
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Post by spqr on Jan 26, 2021 19:19:04 GMT
My point is ,if the public wont turn on the Tories in these (indisputably) worst possible times; when would they? And if they wont now, then surely they are in government indefinitely. Regardless of your colour scarf, that cant be good for democracy! Because things can in fact get worse Because the electorate is continually changing in composition, thus leading to different outcomes over time Because the electorate considers contextual factors when making judgements - an unprecedented health crisis where there are limits to what the Government can do will not elicit the near-unanimous condemnation that greets, say, a sex or corruption scandal Because the Opposition can become more effective - poll ratings are not just determined by what the Government does, are they? Because no government can survive indefinitely in a democratic state - there is always change |
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hengo
Conservative
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Post by hengo on Jan 26, 2021 19:22:46 GMT
Do you think you would ever recognise such evidence? .It is indubitably true that we as a country are vastly more prosperous than we were in, say 1950. During that period we have had many years of conservative government as you will ruefully concede. The same is true of most countries of course. And we’ve had periods of Labour government too. I would argue that on the whole the Conservative governments have been more successful in promoting prosperity. Labour could reasonably claim they have done more to promote equality. The respective contributions of each to the sum of happiness is , to any reasonably open minded person, arguable.
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hengo
Conservative
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Post by hengo on Jan 26, 2021 19:44:19 GMT
I think this is clearly different from confirmation bias, my friend. Highest pro rate death rate in the world - FACT Massive massive problems caused directly by Brexit (just look at the fishing industry) - FACT This isnt as simple as "I hate the tories so why doesnt everyone else". I even went on to expand that point at the end of my post. When things start to gradually turn around again (which inevitably they will, its more a case of how soon and how much], the Tories will get the credit from the public; so why , when things are going so horribly badly, why arent they getting the brickbats for it? My point is ,if the public wont turn on the Tories in these (indisputably) worst possible times; when would they? And if they wont now, then surely they are in government indefinitely. Regardless of your colour scarf, that cant be good for democracy! I would say it most certainly was! And in passing , may I correct the assumption that putting claims in capital letters adds to their authority! Neither of your “facts” are actually facts are they? They may at some time become so, but at present they are not ( I don’t here want to get into discussion about how countries measure mortality rates etc, but let us accept that at some point there will be a proper inquiry into these things and until then it’s not wise to make concrete conclusions). By themselves these things only appear overpowering arguments to you because you want them to. That they haven’t had the effect you think they ought to might give you pause for thought. I actually agree with you ( unlike Rivers!) that one party government isn’t healthy, and I don’t expect it to be the case. I would think it unlikely at this stage that Labour will form the next government, but I certainly don’t think it impossible. At some point Labour will become electable. My money would be on 2029. |
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Post by rivers10 on Jan 26, 2021 19:58:00 GMT
Do you think you would ever recognise such evidence? .It is indubitably true that we as a country are vastly more prosperous than we were in, say 1950. During that period we have had many years of conservative government as you will ruefully concede. The same is true of most countries of course. And we’ve had periods of Labour government too. I would argue that on the whole the Conservative governments have been more successful in promoting prosperity. Labour could reasonably claim they have done more to promote equality. The respective contributions of each to the sum of happiness is , to any reasonably open minded person, arguable. I agree and if we had the Tory party of the 50's back I'd be content. It would be a party I'd fundementally disagree with and would never vote for but for whom I'd never doubt that on the whole its intentions were noble (if misguided) Even Thatcher's Tory party while ruthless, cruel and short sighted at least was competent and genuinely (if naively) patriotic This current crop though? Its not a government its a racket, lurching from one disaster to the next interested in squat aside from its own survival. Its only successes being how they can divide the nation further, totally oblivious or indifferent to the irreversable damage their doing to our very national fabric and integrity. In any sane country they'd be facing criminal charges for the rank negligence, serial mistruths and blatant cronyism they have displayed in the past year Alas we no longer live in a sane country so... |
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 26, 2021 20:01:21 GMT
Can I ask you then hengo in all good faith, what sort of circumstances you would foresee in the near future which would have to happen to result in , say, a regular 10 pt lead for Labour in the polls? I cant believe that you dont seem to agree that things [just about everything right now] is going really badly?? You may dispute my "facts" but there is overwhelming evidence to support them! So can you list 2 or 3 things which could happen which would make you think "well, in view of the state of the country right now, I would expect Labour to be well ahead in the polls"? |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Jan 26, 2021 20:03:36 GMT
Do you think you would ever recognise such evidence? .It is indubitably true that we as a country are vastly more prosperous than we were in, say 1950. During that period we have had many years of conservative government as you will ruefully concede. The same is true of most countries of course. And we’ve had periods of Labour government too. I would argue that on the whole the Conservative governments have been more successful in promoting prosperity. Labour could reasonably claim they have done more to promote equality. The respective contributions of each to the sum of happiness is , to any reasonably open minded person, arguable. I agree and if we had the Tory party of the 50's back I'd be content. It would be a party I'd fundementally disagree with and would never vote for but for whom I'd never doubt that on the whole its intentions were noble (if misguided) Even Thatcher's Tory party while ruthless, cruel and short sighted at least was competent and genuinely (if naively) patriotic This current crop though? Its not a government its a racket, lurching from one disaster to the next interested in squat aside from its own survival. Its only successes being how they can divide the nation further, totally oblivious or indifferent to the irreversable damage their doing to our very national fabric and integrity. In any sane country they'd be facing criminal charges for the rank negligence, serial mistruths and blatant cronyism they have displayed in the past year Alas we no longer live in a sane country so... Ah yes, all the lefties in the 1980s were waxing lyrical about how competent and patriotic the Tory Party was I'm sure. |
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Post by rivers10 on Jan 26, 2021 20:09:13 GMT
I agree and if we had the Tory party of the 50's back I'd be content. It would be a party I'd fundementally disagree with and would never vote for but for whom I'd never doubt that on the whole its intentions were noble (if misguided) Even Thatcher's Tory party while ruthless, cruel and short sighted at least was competent and genuinely (if naively) patriotic This current crop though? Its not a government its a racket, lurching from one disaster to the next interested in squat aside from its own survival. Its only successes being how they can divide the nation further, totally oblivious or indifferent to the irreversable damage their doing to our very national fabric and integrity. In any sane country they'd be facing criminal charges for the rank negligence, serial mistruths and blatant cronyism they have displayed in the past year Alas we no longer live in a sane country so... Ah yes, all the lefties in the 1980s were waxing lyrical about how competent and patriotic the Tory Party was I'm sure. Sometimes things need to get worse before you realise how good (relative) you had it I spoke to my dad about this a few months ago, he's an old union man, hates Thatcher to his core, I mean truly loathed her Yet he told me that in spite of all that he wishes more than anything that she was PM right now because she'd have handled this magnitudes better than any of the current crop of Tories So yeah this lot are that bad that even our collective boogey(wo)man Thatcher is preferable |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 26, 2021 20:09:44 GMT
I suppose its a bit like comparing Dubya and Trump really. The first was bad, very bad, in a pretty objective sense - and did a great deal of harm.
However.......
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 26, 2021 20:21:39 GMT
Ah yes, all the lefties in the 1980s were waxing lyrical about how competent and patriotic the Tory Party was I'm sure. Sometimes things need to get worse before you realise how good (relative) you had it I spoke to my dad about this a few months ago, he's an old union man, hates Thatcher to his core, I mean truly loathed her Yet he told me that in spite of all that he wishes more than anything that she was PM right now because she'd have handled this magnitudes better than any of the current crop of Tories So yeah this lot are that bad that even our collective boogey(wo)man Thatcher is preferable It's not only about the Tories Right now, Labour are very divided, appear to have nothing much to say, and Starmer is about as exciting as a bowl of congealed cold porridge And the LibDems have to all intents and purposes disappeared from national view. It is a critical mass thing and hard to have a presence with so few MPs but did they really have to choose someone who is on the same boredom level as Starmer as leader? That matters because Labour need a slice of that Tory vote to shift to the LibDems |
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 26, 2021 20:30:57 GMT
..but as we all know Mike, the opposition dosent win elections, governments lose them. As they have no levers of power to actually influence change, all the opposition can do is look competent, and I know you disagree with me on this, but I think Starmer is doing just that. Not radical, not revolutionary, not inspiring, but competent.
Indeed..to pick up on your last sentence, soft Tory voters that you want to swing to the Lib Dems wont want to chance it , if Labour is led by someone that they wouldnt be comfortable with as PM [Vote Lib dem, get Corbyn etc, would terrify them, Vote Lib Dem, get Starmer, and they wouldnt flinch one bit]
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hengo
Conservative
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Post by hengo on Jan 26, 2021 20:34:18 GMT
Can I ask you then hengo in all good faith, what sort of circumstances you would foresee in the near future which would have to happen to result in , say, a regular 10 pt lead for Labour in the polls? I cant believe that you dont seem to agree that things [just about everything right now] is going really badly?? You may dispute my "facts" but there is overwhelming evidence to support them! So can you list 2 or 3 things which could happen which would make you think "well, in view of the state of the country right now, I would expect Labour to be well ahead in the polls"? Ok. Well I don’t think, as the cliche has it, you need a crystal ball when you have the book. Leadership is vital. No escaping it. I agree with some of what was said earlier about Starmer’s ideas- I think he knows what needs to be done. But he hasn’t the charisma of a Blair to get it across. I think he’ll make a dent. It would help if he could bring one or two heavyweights into his shadow cabinet now- the cabinet isn’t particularly strong , but the shadows are as ineffective as I can ever recall. In the meantime you are still saddled with too many who resist what he’s trying to do because they don’t want power on that basis. It’ll take another defeat I think before they change. As for your “ overwhelming evidence” well- I’m underwhelmed! It’s absurdly early to draw conclusions about Brexit, and thus far the problems are hardly “ massive”- they are paltry and far less ( possibly because of Covid) than I expected . Whether they are temporary , will get worse or better, remains to be seen. “ World Covid death rates” should prompt some rather obvious caveats before leaping enthusiastically to conclusions. Firstly, how many countries in the world are a) capable and b) trustworthy when producing such data? I’d suggest rather few. Then of the remaining ones -which are usefully comparable? What you get down to it, for us, if you are being serious as opposed to scoring political points it is basically Europe. And then you need to drill down further between the European countries to look at how they each gather and present data, and then, and pretty much only then produce the useful questions as to whether particular actions of governments , among other variables, can explain variances. |
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 26, 2021 20:41:37 GMT
Completely missed the point (possibly deliberately as its a tough ask!)
I was asking what "events" need to get worse and how much worse, before you expect to see a big shift in the opinion polls. I didnt mean your opinion about Starmer. Half the country would be pressed to recognise him, so bringing heavyweights into the shadow cabinet isnt going to change the polls.
I was hoping you'd maybe say something like: 250,000 deaths. Massive queues at ports for many months on end, shortages of certain foods. 500,000 job losses etc etc? Where is the tipping point in the minds of the public , as we clearly havent reached it yet based on recent polls.
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Post by rivers10 on Jan 26, 2021 20:44:15 GMT
..but as we all know Mike, the opposition dosent win elections, governments lose them. As they have no levers of power to actually influence change, all the opposition can do is look competent, and I know you disagree with me on this, but I think Starmer is doing just that. Not radical, not revolutionary, not inspiring, but competent.
Indeed..to pick up on your last sentence, soft Tory voters that you want to swing to the Lib Dems wont want to chance it , if Labour is led by someone that they wouldnt be comfortable with as PM [Vote Lib dem, get Corbyn etc, would terrify them, Vote Lib Dem, get Starmer, and they wouldnt flinch one bit]
I sorta agree but the problem is deeper than that now I think that mindset hails back to the halycon days of (relative) civil discourse in British politics (who would have ever thought the miners strike and Suez would be considered civil discourse, shows how low we've sunk) Thats long gone I'm afraid, you can sense it, the cozy comradery in parliament is for the most part dead, both sides hold each other in utter contempt and if it wasnt for the fact that most Labour MP's are so pathetically inoffensive I honestly think things would be worse Its not enough for Starmer to just look smart amd wait for Tory voters to go off the government, most Tory voters dont think of Starmer as the legitimate opposistion, they think of him as an EU backed fifth column who provides legal aid to child grooming gangs and Jimmy Saville and will destroy the country if he ever becomes PM Starmer needs to realise that and start assembling a coalition that doesnt include brexit voting boomer Tories who hate his guts and if that means a progressive alliance so be it |
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 26, 2021 20:46:55 GMT
Im all up for the progressive alliance bit, which must be coupled with voting reform, but I like to think that we in the UK havent quite gone as far down the QAnon/Fake News rabbithole as they have in America. If we have, then we truly are REFUK'd!
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jan 26, 2021 20:48:51 GMT
Sometimes things need to get worse before you realise how good (relative) you had it I spoke to my dad about this a few months ago, he's an old union man, hates Thatcher to his core, I mean truly loathed her Yet he told me that in spite of all that he wishes more than anything that she was PM right now because she'd have handled this magnitudes better than any of the current crop of Tories So yeah this lot are that bad that even our collective boogey(wo)man Thatcher is preferable It's not only about the Tories Right now, Labour are very divided, appear to have nothing much to say, and Starmer is about as exciting as a bowl of congealed cold porridge And the LibDems have to all intents and purposes disappeared from national view. It is a critical mass thing and hard to have a presence with so few MPs but did they really have to choose someone who is on the same boredom level as Starmer as leader? That matters because Labour need a slice of that Tory vote to shift to the LibDems I thought this by John Harris in the Guardian was good and equally applicable to my party. I think one of the problems is that shambolic and objectionable as the current PM and cabinet are, ideologically they have moved in the direction that the centre-left has been calling for for years - big green investment to both hit climate change targets and boost economy - heavy borrowing at time of historically low interest rates to boost economy, albeit initially hampered by the fact that Covid has closed down said economy - government investment in the North and Midlands of England Now apparently the government has woken up to the threat to the Union and Martin Kettle in the Graun says: ....which could come out of a Lib Dem Manifesto easily enough if true. Arguably Covid has also shifted business in some directions the centre-left has championed too - more home-working to cut commuting and also allowing businesses to shift away from Central London HQs None of this makes me any fonder of the govt since (a) I blame them for half the things they are now belatedly addressing and (b) I don't trust them not to cock them up, invite their mates to have a go at the trough and ignore any area or demographic they don't think will vote for them; but it does make it harder to oppose them. Labour could do with bringing John McDonnell back into the fold, he is bright and comes up with interesting ideas, and we could do with Layla Moran and maybe Daisy Cooper making a bit of a splash. (I don't think that Layla Moran would have brought over any Tories to us, though, I think her appeal is more to Green voters) |
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Post by rivers10 on Jan 26, 2021 20:51:19 GMT
Completely missed the point (possibly deliberately as its a tough ask!) I was asking what "events" need to get worse and how much worse, before you expect to see a big shift in the opinion polls. I didnt mean your opinion about Starmer. Half the country would be pressed to recognise him, so bringing heavyweights into the shadow cabinet isnt going to change the polls. I was hoping you'd maybe say something like: 250,000 deaths. Massive queues at ports for many months on end, shortages of certain foods. 500,000 job losses etc etc? Where is the tipping point in the minds of the public , as we clearly havent reached it yet based on recent polls. You wont get that out of a Tory these days cos theres no depths they could plunge the country before they admit enoughs enough, all the honourable ones who have red lines have already jumped ship long ago Instead its all about the opposistion to them, what we do wrong, how come we're not a government in waiting and the advice is always the same, totally castrate ourselves so that when we do take over we just keep things ticking over for a few years before the Tories can ride back in |
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 26, 2021 20:55:10 GMT
Can I ask you then hengo in all good faith, what sort of circumstances you would foresee in the near future which would have to happen to result in , say, a regular 10 pt lead for Labour in the polls? I cant believe that you dont seem to agree that things [just about everything right now] is going really badly?? You may dispute my "facts" but there is overwhelming evidence to support them! So can you list 2 or 3 things which could happen which would make you think "well, in view of the state of the country right now, I would expect Labour to be well ahead in the polls"? Ok. Well I don’t think, as the cliche has it, you need a crystal ball when you have the book. Leadership is vital. No escaping it. I agree with some of what was said earlier about Starmer’s ideas- I think he knows what needs to be done. But he hasn’t the charisma of a Blair to get it across. I think he’ll make a dent. It would help if he could bring one or two heavyweights into his shadow cabinet now- the cabinet isn’t particularly strong , but the shadows are as ineffective as I can ever recall. In the meantime you are still saddled with too many who resist what he’s trying to do because they don’t want power on that basis. It’ll take another defeat I think before they change. But what is he trying to do? If it's a choice between the Tories and centrist Labour I'm utterly indifferent. Power should be to do something. I don't see what this is. I want them to grasp they can't win and move towards a pact to charge electoral system. That's the only reason I would vote for them. |
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Post by rivers10 on Jan 26, 2021 20:55:24 GMT
Im all up for the progressive alliance bit, which must be coupled with voting reform, but I like to think that we in the UK havent quite gone as far down the QAnon/Fake News rabbithole as they have in America. If we have, then we truly are REFUK'd! I'm in Liverpool, a Remain voting city thay boycotts the Scum And yet I have multiple relatives who quote QAnon esque bullcrap on a regular basis, low and behold they've all become Tory voters the last few years after voting Labour their whole lives This is in Liverpool so I shidder to think what its like elsewhere We're deep down the rabbit hole my friend |
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 26, 2021 20:55:59 GMT
But Im not asking it of "hard baked Tories". Im asking what does it take to turn a floating voter these days? Tory vote share will never get below low-30s; so Im looking at the extra 10% that clearly are movable; but how do we move them?
Unless Hengo is considering his response or anyone else from the blue team wants to have a crack, I guess there is no answer to my question...
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spqr
Non-Aligned
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Post by spqr on Jan 26, 2021 20:56:20 GMT
Completely missed the point (possibly deliberately as its a tough ask!) I was asking what "events" need to get worse and how much worse, before you expect to see a big shift in the opinion polls. I didnt mean your opinion about Starmer. Half the country would be pressed to recognise him, so bringing heavyweights into the shadow cabinet isnt going to change the polls. I was hoping you'd maybe say something like: 250,000 deaths. Massive queues at ports for many months on end, shortages of certain foods. 500,000 job losses etc etc? Where is the tipping point in the minds of the public , as we clearly havent reached it yet based on recent polls. Your question is a pointless one. Politics isn't a machine, with inputs and outputs. There is no point at which you can "expect" a party to reach an entirely arbitrary figure in opinion polls (whether that's 5, 10, 15 points ahead of the opposition, or whatever). Too many conflicting variables are in play, for a start, and even seemingly damaging ones (such as 500,000 job losses, for example) can be responded to in different ways, which in turn will lead to different public reactions. I can't speak for hengo, but given that your point wasn't particularly difficult to understand (as opposed to being based on an irrational premise) I expect he just wanted to focus on those aspects of your post that were actually worth talking about. |
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