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Post by lackeroftalent on Dec 6, 2020 0:58:39 GMT
I have to confess I find it a bit odd that we (LDs) are creeping up a bit in these polls. May just be a bit of random stuff within the margins of error, but I confess (for the second time) that I can see no reasons at all for us creeping up in a UK wide poll. Still I should not complain. Plenty still to go for! Really? I am not surprised at all. We are a long way from a general election with an incompetent government and an underwhelming opposition. The Brexit vote and Leaving are now done (consequences still to arrive). People want to express their dissatisfaction and are looking around for alternatives. Telling a pollster that you would vote Lib Dem, Green or UKIP/Faragist is a very easy way to do that. Not seeing an uptick for the smaller parties from what is a pretty low base would seem like the surprise. Just have to try and build on it come the locals next year. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Dec 6, 2020 1:04:20 GMT
I have to confess I find it a bit odd that we (LDs) are creeping up a bit in these polls. May just be a bit of random stuff within the margins of error, but I confess (for the second time) that I can see no reasons at all for us creeping up in a UK wide poll. Still I should not complain. Plenty still to go for! The LDs polled 12% at the last election and I'm pretty sure they'd get the same sort of share if another election was held in the near future. So in a way it's their 5% showings recently that have been more surprising. |
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Post by bigfatron on Dec 6, 2020 11:57:17 GMT
I hear quite a few friends here in the south expressing some degree of buyers regret about voting Tory last December, which they usually did for fear of a Corbyn-led Labour party; what I might describe as centrists - generally Remainers who have oscillated between voting Lib Dem and Tory over many elections.
In a few couples we know well enough to talk politics occasionally it seems to be the case that the wife is experiencing buyers' regret, whereas the husband is doubling down on supporting Johnson....
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,720 
Member is Online
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Post by Jack on Jan 12, 2021 19:50:34 GMT
Nice abbreviation for Reform UK:
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Post by hullenedge on Jan 20, 2021 9:03:37 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 25, 2021 22:18:46 GMT
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hengo
Conservative
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Post by hengo on Jan 26, 2021 10:46:10 GMT
I’m picking up a lot of frustration from Labour supporting acquaintances who are more than a bit bewildered that the polls aren’t moving heavily in their favour yet. They pretty much assumed that it was only the Corbyn factor which was preventing a big slump in Tory support. I too would have expected Labour to be ahead by a decent margin by now.
Although I don’t share it, there seems to be a consensus that the Government , vaccine apart, has mishandled quite a lot of the Covid crisis; we are at the point where the disbenefits of Brexit are attracting attention daily, whereas any benefits ( again vaccine apart) will take time to show, if they indeed transpire; we are in a recession and everyone expects things to get worse; we are ten years into a Conservative- led government. Yet not a hint in the polls that Labour might win an election.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 26, 2021 13:22:32 GMT
I’m picking up a lot of frustration from Labour supporting acquaintances who are more than a bit bewildered that the polls aren’t moving heavily in their favour yet. They pretty much assumed that it was only the Corbyn factor which was preventing a big slump in Tory support. I too would have expected Labour to be ahead by a decent margin by now. Although I don’t share it, there seems to be a consensus that the Government , vaccine apart, has mishandled quite a lot of the Covid crisis; we are at the point where the disbenefits of Brexit are attracting attention daily, whereas any benefits ( again vaccine apart) will take time to show, if they indeed transpire; we are in a recession and everyone expects things to get worse; we are ten years into a Conservative- led government. Yet not a hint in the polls that Labour might win an election. I don’t think it’s that surprising because during a crisis people tend to rally behind the leader and the government even if they’re not doing a particularly good job. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 26, 2021 13:36:37 GMT
Yet not a hint in the polls that Labour might win an election. Apart from the ones that do show that. Most, of course, show neither government re-election nor Labour victory. When you look at the polls (as opposed to saying 'the polls' when you actually mean 'one poll, generally one that I like or at least dislike least') they basically show a tie. Reality of polling is that sometimes as part of that picture, when that is the picture, you'll see this or that poll show a better lead for the government or a better lead for the opposition. Though I tend to be increasingly dubious as to the value of voting intention polling outside election periods (except as a very vague indicator) and especially dubious of them in situations like this: for most people 'how would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow' is a question of pure fantasy right now. Most people are tending their own gardens, barely thinking about politics. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 26, 2021 13:42:04 GMT
I’m picking up a lot of frustration from Labour supporting acquaintances who are more than a bit bewildered that the polls aren’t moving heavily in their favour yet. They pretty much assumed that it was only the Corbyn factor which was preventing a big slump in Tory support. I too would have expected Labour to be ahead by a decent margin by now. Although I don’t share it, there seems to be a consensus that the Government , vaccine apart, has mishandled quite a lot of the Covid crisis; we are at the point where the disbenefits of Brexit are attracting attention daily, whereas any benefits ( again vaccine apart) will take time to show, if they indeed transpire; we are in a recession and everyone expects things to get worse; we are ten years into a Conservative- led government. Yet not a hint in the polls that Labour might win an election. Anybody who genuinely believed it would be that simple is naïve in the extreme. I'm not sure I'd say the polling shows "not a hint" that Labour would win an election; it seems to be averaging out with the parties roughly equal and certainly well within the margin of error, so it certainly shows the potential for Labour to win, even if it's not looking terribly likely. As for why Labour can't get a convincing poll lead, I think there are, broadly, three parts to that answer. The first part is COVID. Nobody can campaign properly, and the opposition have to tread very carefully; oppose too little and people wonder why you're there, oppose too forcefully and you come across as badgering or unnecessarily playing politics with a serious issue. The second part is the way we campaign. Too much revolves around pointing out how shit the Tories are and not enough around what we would do better. This is not in itself and issue, but when we say "the Tories are shit" most people's response is "yes, we already know that, but you lot would be worse", and I don't feel we're doing enough to convince people otherwise. The third, and possibly most problematic part, is that I think the Labour Party brand is severely damaged. The three most common criticisms I've heard over the last few years are 1) "Yeah, but WMDs/Iraq"; 2) "Yeah, but PFIs"; and 3) "Gordon Brown spent all the money". Utterly absurd given the irrelevance of these things to modern issues, and especially ironic given that main things people supposedly didn't like about Corbyn were the main areas where he tried to distance himself from these things, but there we are. Issue 1 will get better when COVID is behind us. Issue 2 should improve then as well, although of course we as a party need to be proactive about it. Issue three is a much more serious problem and I don't know what the solution is. I also think that when COVID is over and Starmer's shift in rhetoric (around "progressive patriotism" and "Labour is the party of the family") gets a wider hearing I think we might start to see some movement. I also wonder to what extent the, er, "journalistic wisdom" (contrived bollocks written by people who have never met a) and ordinary voter or b) someone from outside Kensington) that conflates "Richer voters are less hostile to Labour/poorer voters are less hostile to the Tories" with "the patterns have completely reversed, rich people vote Labour everyone else votes Tory" has filtered through to the pollsters(the first statements being broadly true, the last one being completely false). If they're getting that wrong, it means the polls will be next to useless. |
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Post by tonygreaves on Jan 26, 2021 15:35:41 GMT
REFUK. Is this Farridge? Well he's kippered us once so why not do it again?
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 26, 2021 16:23:23 GMT
I share the general concern/befuddlement in the polls! One thing that concerned me greatly though and which may partly account for this was a show on Times Radio I heard about a week ago. They got together 8 "undecided" voters from 4 key/red wall seats [i think it was a Bolton seat, a West Brom seat, Sedgefield and an other, possibly Stoke) and prompted for their opinions mainly on 3 topics (1) covid (2) brexit (3) economy in general.
The responses were disturbing from an anti-Tory perspective. For Covid, the previaling opinion was that "Boris is doing his best. Its a new thing so its not his fault" And on Starmer that "he keeps sniping and complaining instead of getting behind Boris" !!
On brexit, the consensus was it was either "too soon to judge but I expect everything will be fine because...it will(!)" or "it would have been great but its all the EUs fault for not giving us everything we want" !
On the economy the consensus was "Sunak is doing a great job and Labour should shut up and agree with the government".
Whilst the level of discussion/responses was scarily low and there was a regular trotting out of various 3-line slogans etc as an answer to complex issues; but we live in the car crash of a society that we are in right now and there isnt much the left/centre-left can do about that!
I leave you to pick the bones out of some of those mindbending opinions...
However this raises massive concerns for the non-Tories among us. If the floating voters are going to give the Tories a free pass on the highest per capita death rate in the world, plus the imevitable consequences of Brexit [which could easily have been delayed til things are more normal in 6-9 months time] to the ever widening division in society between rich and poor [foodbanks galore, kids on free meals, whilst the rich go on piling up mage fortunes]. If they are going to wave all that through, then what happens when - eventually things start picking up a bit? Vaccination rollouts mean many more people get back to work/normality - for which the govt will get the credit; a couple of years down the line businesses are more prepared to cope with the mountain of red tape that Brexit created, so that diminishes the economic damage somewhat. Businesses (some) saved by the financial support offered by Sunak etc etc.
If floating voters will give the Tories a free pass on all the fuckups they've made but then give them credit for the relative recovery from them; then our democracy is indeeed in a parlous state!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 26, 2021 16:31:52 GMT
I share the general concern/befuddlement in the polls! One thing that concerned me greatly though and which may partly account for this was a show on Times Radio I heard about a week ago. They got together 8 "undecided" voters from 4 key/red wall seats [i think it was a Bolton seat, a West Brom seat, Sedgefield and an other, possibly Stoke) and prompted for their opinions mainly on 3 topics (1) covid (2) brexit (3) economy in general. The responses were disturbing from an anti-Tory perspective. For Covid, the previaling opinion was that "Boris is doing his best. Its a new thing so its not his fault" And on Starmer that "he keeps sniping and complaining instead of getting behind Boris" !! On brexit, the consensus was it was either "too soon to judge but I expect everything will be fine because...it will(!)" or "it would have been great but its all the EUs fault for not giving us everything we want" !
On the economy the consensus was "Sunak is doing a great job and Labour should shut up and agree with the government".
Whilst the level of discussion/responses was scarily low and there was a regular trotting out of various 3-line slogans etc as an answer to complex issues; but we live in the car crash of a society that we are in right now and there isnt much the left/centre-left can do about that!
I leave you to pick the bones out of some of those mindbending opinions...
However this raises massive concerns for the non-Tories among us. If the floating voters are going to give the Tories a free pass on the highest per capita death rate in the world, plus the imevitable consequences of Brexit [which could easily have been delayed til things are more normal in 6-9 months time] to the ever widening division in society between rich and poor [foodbanks galore, kids on free meals, whilst the rich go on piling up mage fortunes]. If they are going to wave all that through, then what happens when - eventually things start picking up a bit? Vaccination rollouts mean many more people get back to work/normality - for which the govt will get the credit; a couple of years down the line businesses are more prepared to cope with the mountain of red tape that Brexit created, so that diminishes the economic damage somewhat. Businesses (some) saved by the financial support offered by Sunak etc etc.
If floating voters will give the Tories a free pass on all the fuckups they've made but then give them credit for the relative recovery from them; then our democracy is indeeed in a parlous state!I am 100% certain that they specifically selected 8 people who would trot out those views for the radio. Those kind of things are worse than useless |
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 26, 2021 16:38:14 GMT
You may have a point but it scared the shit out of me nonetheless. Also why else arent Labout 15+ points ahead in the polls like the would have been in any other existential series of crises that we;ve been in for over a year now?
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Jan 26, 2021 17:36:07 GMT
Would there be as many voting intention polls if the UK had fixed terms (of the kind that couldn't easily be overturned)?
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Post by greenchristian on Jan 26, 2021 18:11:42 GMT
Would there be as many voting intention polls if the UK had fixed terms (of the kind that couldn't easily be overturned)? The US isn't short of voting intention polls, so probably not. |
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hengo
Conservative
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Post by hengo on Jan 26, 2021 18:46:11 GMT
You may have a point but it scared the shit out of me nonetheless. Also why else arent Labout 15+ points ahead in the polls like the would have been in any other existential series of crises that we;ve been in for over a year now? Are you able to contemplate the possibility that their views are actually not unreasonable? Confirmation bias is a huge problem that all of us who support a particular party have to address if we are not to be regularly astounded by the stupidity of our fellow citizens! I think this is a particular problem for many on the left who have convinced themselves that the Tories are not merely mistaken in their prescriptions for producing a more prosperous and happy nation, but morally evil and only able to win elections through fooling those less intelligent or virtuous than themselves. |
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 26, 2021 19:06:39 GMT
I think this is clearly different from confirmation bias, my friend.
Highest pro rate death rate in the world - FACT
Massive massive problems caused directly by Brexit (just look at the fishing industry) - FACT
This isnt as simple as "I hate the tories so why doesnt everyone else". I even went on to expand that point at the end of my post. When things start to gradually turn around again (which inevitably they will, its more a case of how soon and how much], the Tories will get the credit from the public; so why , when things are going so horribly badly, why arent they getting the brickbats for it?
My point is ,if the public wont turn on the Tories in these (indisputably) worst possible times; when would they? And if they wont now, then surely they are in government indefinitely. Regardless of your colour scarf, that cant be good for democracy!
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Post by rivers10 on Jan 26, 2021 19:07:39 GMT
You may have a point but it scared the shit out of me nonetheless. Also why else arent Labout 15+ points ahead in the polls like the would have been in any other existential series of crises that we;ve been in for over a year now? Are you able to contemplate the possibility that their views are actually not unreasonable? Confirmation bias is a huge problem that all of us who support a particular party have to address if we are not to be regularly astounded by the stupidity of our fellow citizens! I think this is a particular problem for many on the left who have convinced themselves that the Tories are not merely mistaken in their prescriptions for producing a more prosperous and happy nation, but morally evil and only able to win elections through fooling those less intelligent or virtuous than themselves. If only there was some, indeed any evidence at all that the Tories had produced a more prosperous and happy nation Pretty much everybody even die hard Tory voters seems to think that the country is going to shit, the only difference is who you blame, one of the dozens of phantoms the Tories aportion blame to or the Tories themself |
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Post by rivers10 on Jan 26, 2021 19:13:12 GMT
I think this is clearly different from confirmation bias, my friend. Highest pro rate death rate in the world - FACT Massive massive problems caused directly by Brexit (just look at the fishing industry) - FACT This isnt as simple as "I hate the tories so why doesnt everyone else". I even went on to expand that point at the end of my post. When things start to gradually turn around again (which inevitably they will, its more a case of how soon and how much], the Tories will get the credit from the public; so why , when things are going so horribly badly, why arent they getting the brickbats for it? My point is ,if the public wont turn on the Tories in these (indisputably) worst possible times; when would they? And if they wont now, then surely they are in government indefinitely. Regardless of your colour scarf, that cant be good for democracy! A combination of brazen lies, an utterly biased media and a divided opposistion more interested in factional point scoring than the real danger has resulted in a radicalised and stubborn high turnout generation who support the Tories come what may Is it good for democracy? No its diabolical but we are where we are The only consolation is I believe once the Tories are turfed out they will never be elected again, issue is how much damage they do between now and that (possibly quite distant) point in the future |
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