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Post by andrewp on Feb 6, 2023 17:45:34 GMT
Redfield Wilton 5th Feb
LAB: 50% (+1) CON: 24% (-4) LDEM: 10% (+2) REF: 6% (+1) GRN: 5%(-)
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Post by andrewp on Feb 13, 2023 18:02:16 GMT
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Post by batman on Feb 20, 2023 22:00:31 GMT
Westminster VI (18 February)
Labour 51% ( + 3) Conservative 24% ( - 3) Lib Dem 10% ( + 1 ) Reform UK 6% ( - ) Green 5 % ( - ) SNP 3% ( - 1 ) Others 1% ( - )
Largest Labour lead from this pollster since Rishi Sunak became PM.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,636
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 21, 2023 11:18:41 GMT
Yes its likely an outlier blah blah, but still amusing given how much L*e A*d*r*o* bigged up the previous week's poll
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,060
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Feb 21, 2023 11:45:18 GMT
Yes its likely an outlier blah blah, but still amusing given how much L*e A*d*r*o* bigged up the previous week's poll In your heart of hearts do you think your team will do it in 20 months time? Ie form a government of sort?
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Post by batman on Feb 21, 2023 11:54:03 GMT
With no potential parliamentary allies in the event of a hung parliament apart from perhaps the DUP (and they are not reliable), the Tories have to be well ahead of Labour to be able to form a government. I can see them narrowing the gap between now & the election, but to the extent necessary to retain their place in government, I don't see it. It's highly improbable but not completely impossible, not yet. So yes I think so, and I think most Tory MPs think so too
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,636
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 21, 2023 12:12:48 GMT
I think we may just possibly be in "only some black swan event can save the Tories" territory now. And even then "save" may actually mean a hung parliament.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,060
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Feb 21, 2023 12:17:52 GMT
I think we may just possibly be in "only some black swan event can save the Tories" territory now. And even then "save" may actually mean a hung parliament. I still have terrible nagging doubt of tory majority a la 1992 and 2015
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,636
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 21, 2023 12:18:48 GMT
Never say never, but the objective circumstances are markedly different from both those examples.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,060
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Feb 21, 2023 12:24:17 GMT
Never say never, but the objective circumstances are markedly different from both those examples. Is that you Mrs Connery?
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Post by Clark on Feb 21, 2023 13:09:32 GMT
I'm too young to remember but are there similar parallels here with the run up to the 1992 General Election when the polls were all pointing to a Labour victory?
I know the Bishop said the circumstances now are different - but it's still a Labour poll lead that failed to show on polling day itself
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r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 838
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Post by r34t on Feb 21, 2023 13:12:39 GMT
I'm too young to remember but are there similar parallels here with the run up to the 1992 General Election when the polls were all pointing to a Labour victory? Some, although the lead wasn't as large (if I remember right) & the Tories weren't in quite as much s**t. Getting rid of Maggie lanced the poll tax boil back in those days. I guess we just need to keep Starmer away from walks on the beach .....
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Post by batman on Feb 21, 2023 13:31:40 GMT
This is something that's cropped up several times on this forum, I guess you didn't see it Clark. I can't emphasize too strongly that the polls at the moment are NOTHING like they were at this point in the 1987-1992 parliament. Once Margaret Thatcher was replaced by John Major, Labour never again had a sizable lead, not even generally one of low double figures. Generally, the Labour lead, if there was one, tended to be about 2 or 3%, which was known to be not enough for a Labour outright majority. The 1992 result when it came was a shock, but nobody could have looked at the polls & predicted a Labour outright majority with any evidential basis. Now not only is Labour's poll lead far, far larger (it's averaging over 20% and has been for several months now), pollsters have changed their methodology to iron out the "shy Tory" effect which had a major (pardon unintentional pun) impact on the discrepancy between Labour's narrow poll lead & the result, which was a Tory lead of about 7.5% on election day, so polling has been shown in recent elections to be more accurate. Also, in 1992 the economy was in good shape & so by & large were people's living standards. There are hardly any worthwhile parallels with the 1987-1992 parliament; the only similarity is the replacement of a very unpopular Tory Prime Minister, two of them in fact (of whom Truss was far more unpopular than Johnson).
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msc
Non-Aligned
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Post by msc on Feb 21, 2023 14:10:00 GMT
It can't be underestimated how important John Major was to that recovery. People liked the guy. I know ardent anti-Tories who, while they wanted him out of office asap, still liked John Major the guy. I believe he lead in the best PM polling at the time too?
It comes down to the economy for me. Excuse the Glaswegian, it's properly fucked, and has been for a while. In the money in your pocket way. I can't recall a UK government who were in charge during one of the bad economic downturns and were rewarded at the next election. Also, I'm very wary of echo chambers, but I do notice a lot of folk who are very F the Tories/Boris/Sunak among my acquaintances were the people who are normally quite apathetic about politics but vote at an election. When you start to lose folk whose default is to give the government the benefit of the doubt, I think you're fucked, tbh.
I am too young to remember the contemporary mood music of 1995-97 (though its documented well enough), but I can remember 2009-10, and you can smell the stench of a dead government killing time till the electorate put it out of its misery. You can smell it again now.
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,165
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Post by polupolu on Feb 21, 2023 14:38:15 GMT
It can't be underestimated how important John Major was to that recovery. People liked the guy. I know ardent anti-Tories who, while they wanted him out of office asap, still liked John Major the guy. I believe he lead in the best PM polling at the time too? It comes down to the economy for me. Excuse the Glaswegian, it's properly fucked, and has been for a while. In the money in your pocket way. I can't recall a UK government who were in charge during one of the bad economic downturns and were rewarded at the next election. Also, I'm very wary of echo chambers, but I do notice a lot of folk who are very F the Tories/Boris/Sunak among my acquaintances were the people who are normally quite apathetic about politics but vote at an election. When you start to lose folk whose default is to give the government the benefit of the doubt, I think you're fucked, tbh. I am too young to remember the contemporary mood music of 1995-97 (though its documented well enough), but I can remember 2009-10, and you can smell the stench of a dead government killing time till the electorate put it out of its misery. You can smell it again now. I think that is right. A lot of people thought Major was well meaning; and even had a bit of sympathy with his having to deal with "the bastards" (as he called them) who made his life as PM miserable later on. The worst that "spitting Image" could come up with was that he was grey and liked peas. His back story - growing up in Brixton, leaving school at 16 - was also rather different to Mr Sunak's.
The one big thing that Major and Sunak seem to have in common is that their brexiteer "ultras" were trying to dictate policy (in fact it is some of the same people then as now).
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Post by matureleft on Feb 21, 2023 14:46:04 GMT
It can't be underestimated how important John Major was to that recovery. People liked the guy. I know ardent anti-Tories who, while they wanted him out of office asap, still liked John Major the guy. I believe he lead in the best PM polling at the time too? It comes down to the economy for me. Excuse the Glaswegian, it's properly fucked, and has been for a while. In the money in your pocket way. I can't recall a UK government who were in charge during one of the bad economic downturns and were rewarded at the next election. Also, I'm very wary of echo chambers, but I do notice a lot of folk who are very F the Tories/Boris/Sunak among my acquaintances were the people who are normally quite apathetic about politics but vote at an election. When you start to lose folk whose default is to give the government the benefit of the doubt, I think you're fucked, tbh. I am too young to remember the contemporary mood music of 1995-97 (though its documented well enough), but I can remember 2009-10, and you can smell the stench of a dead government killing time till the electorate put it out of its misery. You can smell it again now. I think that is right. A lot of people thought Major was well meaning; and even had a bit of sympathy with his having to deal with "the bastards" (as he called them) who made his life as PM miserable later on. The worst that "spitting Image" could come up with was that he was grey and liked peas. His back story - growing up in Brixton, leaving school at 16 - was also rather different to Mr Sunak's.
The one big thing that Major and Sunak seem to have in common is that their brexiteer "ultras" were trying to dictate policy (in fact it is some of the same people then as now).
He was illustrated wearing his Y fronts outside his shirt in cartoons.
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Post by batman on Feb 21, 2023 15:05:51 GMT
yes, by Steve Bell. This was because he admitted to tucking his shirt into his underpants.
msc makes a good point about John Major. He was really not greatly disliked by most voters, even those who were strongly Labour-inclined. Sunak is much less popular than Major. It's true that Starmer's not as popular as Blair was during that period, but he doesn't really need to be. It seems to be he's going more for the you-can-take-me-seriously-as-a-leader vibe than for likeability.
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 21, 2023 16:26:52 GMT
I think that is right. A lot of people thought Major was well meaning; and even had a bit of sympathy with his having to deal with "the bastards" (as he called them) who made his life as PM miserable later on. The worst that "spitting Image" could come up with was that he was grey and liked peas. His back story - growing up in Brixton, leaving school at 16 - was also rather different to Mr Sunak's.
The one big thing that Major and Sunak seem to have in common is that their brexiteer "ultras" were trying to dictate policy (in fact it is some of the same people then as now).
He was illustrated wearing his Y fronts outside his shirt in cartoons. You must have been holding them upside-down.
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Post by matureleft on Feb 21, 2023 16:39:23 GMT
He was illustrated wearing his Y fronts outside his shirt in cartoons. You must have been holding them upside-down. I think the cartoons are copyright but a quick web search using John Major pants outside shirt (or similar) will get you some images. The image was sufficiently widespread that when his affair with Currie was revealed she was asked about the veracity of the claim, I think!
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 21, 2023 16:54:10 GMT
You must have been holding them upside-down. I think the cartoons are copyright but a quick web search using John Major pants outside shirt (or similar) will get you some images. The image was sufficiently widespread that when his affair with Currie was revealed she was asked about the veracity of the claim, I think! Trousers I think you will find with the shirt inside the trousers? But maybe not and frankly don't care much anyway.
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