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Post by willpower3 on Jun 14, 2022 16:32:48 GMT
Equivalent to about a seven point Labour lead overall, so not that dramatic.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 14, 2022 16:38:53 GMT
Comments below the post suggest that three of their seats would remain Tory - Bassetlaw, Great Grimsby and Dudley North. Off the top of my head that chimes with the YouGov MRP poll a couple of weeks ago?
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 14, 2022 16:47:48 GMT
Comments below the post suggest that three of their seats would remain Tory - Bassetlaw, Great Grimsby and Dudley North. Off the top of my head that chimes with the YouGov MRP poll a couple of weeks ago? I think so - it does suggest hung parliament territory, but perhaps Labour as the largest single party?
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 14, 2022 18:28:56 GMT
Off the top of my head that chimes with the YouGov MRP poll a couple of weeks ago? I think so - it does suggest hung parliament territory, but perhaps Labour as the largest single party? It may be off message, but I think that’s been the Opposition’s (combined) best hope since the SNP breakthrough; I suspect you’d need a bigger swing than 1997 for a Labour overall majority without the 40+ Scottish seats, and it’s unrealistic to contemplate them all coming back to Labour (a repeat of 2017 is probably close to best case scenario in Scotland for Labour).
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Post by woollyliberal on Jun 14, 2022 18:45:37 GMT
Equivalent to about a seven point Labour lead overall, so not that dramatic. Yes, you'd expect this to match the national polling. The benefit is that we don't have to infer from national polling about this specific group of seats. These are what gave Boris his solid majority and their apparent loss would see that go. Losses elsewhere to the Lib Dems and SNP would see his majority gone altogether. This polling shows us directly what's going on where it counts.
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Post by greenhert on Jun 14, 2022 21:41:07 GMT
Comments below the post suggest that three of their seats would remain Tory - Bassetlaw, Great Grimsby and Dudley North. Dudley North is also increasing pro-Conservative demographic change (population getting older, increasing home ownership, traditional Labour voters dying off; see also Stoke on Trent South and North East Derbyshire).
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Post by greenhert on Jun 14, 2022 21:50:06 GMT
About their list of "Red Wall" seats. Birmingham Northfield, Gedling, and Ynys Mon do not qualify. Birmingham Northfield was never that safely Labour (and it was Conservative from 1979-82 and 1983-92), Gedling did not have a strong Leave vote nor does it have a strong Labour tradition, and Ynys Mon has a strong Welsh-speaking populace and a strong incumbency element to its voting patterns.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 14, 2022 22:00:46 GMT
About their list of "Red Wall" seats. Birmingham Northfield, Gedling, and Ynys Mon do not qualify. Birmingham Northfield was never that safely Labour (and it was Conservative from 1979-82 and 1983-92), Gedling did not have a strong Leave vote nor does it have a strong Labour tradition, and Ynys Mon has a strong Welsh-speaking populace and a strong incumbency element to its voting patterns. Agree about Gedling and Ynys Mon. See above. Though Northfield does have many suitable and typical characteristics
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Jun 15, 2022 2:49:11 GMT
About their list of "Red Wall" seats. Birmingham Northfield, Gedling, and Ynys Mon do not qualify. Birmingham Northfield was never that safely Labour (and it was Conservative from 1979-82 and 1983-92), Gedling did not have a strong Leave vote nor does it have a strong Labour tradition, and Ynys Mon has a strong Welsh-speaking populace and a strong incumbency element to its voting patterns. They've defined it as: the parliamentary constituencies the Conservative Party won in the 2019 General Election (or the 2021 Hartlepool By-Election) that were won by Labour in 2010, 2015 and 2017, plus Redcar and Burnley, Lib Dem in 2010, and Vale of Clwyd, Conservative in 2015 (Labour 1997-2010 & 2017). This takes in a lot of seats which really shouldn't be included, even those which most would probably consider to be part of the grouping weren't complete Conservative no-go areas prior to Brexit - of course they'd return a Labour MP every election, but nowhere as safely as might be implied. Somewhere like Dudley North nearly went Conservative in 2010 and 2017, Labour has never a 20% or greater majority in the seat (created in 1997) and the Conservatives were always above 30%. Wakefield was in a similar boat, with only one occasion since 1979 where there was a Labour majority greater than 20% and a Conservative vote below 30% (in 1997); Workington is fairly similar too. I wonder how much of the perceived Labour dominance was down to the Conservatives never really attempting to win the seats (as well as FPTP distorting people's opinions about the strength of parties in certain areas). There is a demographic shift in the 'red wall' seats, but I think more importantly in the past few elections a voter's social position being the primary determining factor in terms how they'd vote (which was the primary division in the Brexit vote) - which benefits the Conservatives over Labour, due to the social nature of these constituencies. Now the focus is going to be on cost-of-living, the voter's economic position will become the primary factor again - which will benefit Labour. I think the term is unhelpful in this context anyway, as we're basically talking seats the Conservatives gained from Labour, which they'd won at the previous three elections (plus three). Stockton North and Warrington North aren't considered part of their 'red wall' simply because Labour held those seats by less than 2pp, despite being virtually identical to many of the other seats in their 'red wall' list.
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Post by grahammurray on Jun 15, 2022 8:25:56 GMT
About their list of "Red Wall" seats. Birmingham Northfield, Gedling, and Ynys Mon do not qualify. Birmingham Northfield was never that safely Labour (and it was Conservative from 1979-82 and 1983-92), Gedling did not have a strong Leave vote nor does it have a strong Labour tradition, and Ynys Mon has a strong Welsh-speaking populace and a strong incumbency element to its voting patterns. I think that ignores one factor though. A Parliamentary boundary change in Birmingham can have a massive effect on the nature of a seat, even if it retains a name and the move is of a single ward.
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 15, 2022 12:22:59 GMT
About their list of "Red Wall" seats. Birmingham Northfield, Gedling, and Ynys Mon do not qualify. Birmingham Northfield was never that safely Labour (and it was Conservative from 1979-82 and 1983-92), Gedling did not have a strong Leave vote nor does it have a strong Labour tradition, and Ynys Mon has a strong Welsh-speaking populace and a strong incumbency element to its voting patterns. I think that ignores one factor though. A Parliamentary boundary change in Birmingham can have a massive effect on the nature of a seat, even if it retains a name and the move is of a single ward. That wasn’t the case for Northfield though. The last change simply added a marginal ward. The previous change made little difference either.
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Post by grahammurray on Jun 15, 2022 13:33:31 GMT
I think that ignores one factor though. A Parliamentary boundary change in Birmingham can have a massive effect on the nature of a seat, even if it retains a name and the move is of a single ward. That wasn’t the case for Northfield though. The last change simply added a marginal ward. The previous change made little difference either. I think the previous change took out a whole ward. That was 25% of the seat. Then added back in a different one.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 16, 2022 16:08:34 GMT
Another one, that’s two very close together. Looks like the 15% was an outlier
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Jun 16, 2022 21:31:19 GMT
i’d rather have 15 as an outlier than 10
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 20, 2022 16:07:48 GMT
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 24, 2022 11:13:13 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 24, 2022 11:33:03 GMT
This one was a bit late.
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Post by andrewp on Jun 27, 2022 16:07:44 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention (26 June):
Labour 41% (–) Conservative 33% (+1) Liberal Democrat 15% (+2) Green 4% (-1) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Reform UK 3% (-2) Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 22 June
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Jun 27, 2022 19:31:46 GMT
another outlier
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 28, 2022 10:28:55 GMT
another outlier How many outliers make a summer? 🤔
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