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Post by Merseymike on Jun 10, 2022 12:46:39 GMT
Voter distribution.Anything is possible but we would be talking a very large swing indeed. This was against the Tories 1992-2010 but they overcame it eventually True but not in a single election...
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jun 10, 2022 12:54:50 GMT
This was against the Tories 1992-2010 but they overcame it eventually True but not in a single election... I did say eventually . plus Labour were handicapped by the electoral system in the 1950s/early 1960s and overcame that
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 10, 2022 13:58:10 GMT
True but not in a single election... I did say eventually . plus Labour were handicapped by the electoral system in the 1950s/early 1960s and overcame that If there is a hung parliament, then I'm sure the smaller parties will demand electoral reform in exchange for co-operation anyway, but that will have to be sorted before the election. It may depend how confident Labour are with regard to the outcome.
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jun 10, 2022 14:24:46 GMT
I did say eventually . plus Labour were handicapped by the electoral system in the 1950s/early 1960s and overcame that If there is a hung parliament, then I'm sure the smaller parties will demand electoral reform in exchange for co-operation anyway, but that will have to be sorted before the election. It may depend how confident Labour are with regard to the outcome. now the ability to request a dissolution is back future leaders of either party might just think we'll follow Wilson's example in 1966 and Oct 74(and to hell with the smaller parties!)
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Post by aargauer on Jun 10, 2022 15:27:48 GMT
These days labour have the most to lose so I think would proceed as a minority government and call an election if the snp / liberals voted against the budget.
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Post by redtony on Jun 10, 2022 20:45:55 GMT
Labour dont need a majority over all othrt pparties just a 40 seat Pluss over the tories are the SNP Lib Dema and the tories going to combine to bring the Labour Goverment down Spmehow I dont think so
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Post by casualobserver on Jun 11, 2022 20:17:42 GMT
Labour dont need a majority over all othrt pparties just a 40 seat Pluss over the tories are the SNP Lib Dema and the tories going to combine to bring the Labour Goverment down Spmehow I dont think so You are old enough, redtony, to remember how Labour’s incompetence in Government led to virtually every voting non-Labour MP in 1979 voting for the Conservative no confidence motion. Don’t assume that couldn’t happen again.
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Post by aargauer on Jun 11, 2022 21:18:14 GMT
Labour dont need a majority over all othrt pparties just a 40 seat Pluss over the tories are the SNP Lib Dema and the tories going to combine to bring the Labour Goverment down Spmehow I dont think so That definitely could happen. You think the snp would sit back and back labour budgets without getting their price? Don't bet on it. Labour will be ready for all eventualities, and won't be assuming anything. The liberals will also have their price - electoral reform that benefits them as much as possible. Labour will want to water that down, probably to AV which would suit them at the minute. They'll be ready for a second election if needed. Could be a 1974 scenario very easily.
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Post by redtony on Jun 12, 2022 20:56:58 GMT
It would be electorial disaster for the SNP to vote with the Tories to bring down a Labour Government and they know it. Anyway all labour has to do is to say during the election campaign is that although they are a unionist party if there is a pro refurememdum majority In the 2026 Holyrood elections there will be a referemfum and they will vote against it in \\\\\holyrood and campaign foor a no vote in any referemdum
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Post by woollyliberal on Jun 12, 2022 21:04:40 GMT
The liberals will also have their price - electoral reform that benefits them as much as possible. Labour will want to water that down, probably to AV which would suit them at the minute. In 2010 there were rainbow coalition talks between the Lib Dems and Labour. So David Laws tells in his book, Ed Balls dropped the Labour Manifesto on the table and more or less said 'sign up to that and you can have a coalition'. One of the LD negotiators turned to the page on electoral reform and asked if Labour would agree to implement it. It took a whole day's negotiation to get Labour to agree to implement their own policy (AV+).
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Post by mattbewilson on Jun 12, 2022 21:14:30 GMT
The liberals will also have their price - electoral reform that benefits them as much as possible. Labour will want to water that down, probably to AV which would suit them at the minute. In 2010 there were rainbow coalition talks between the Lib Dems and Labour. So David Laws tells in his book, Ed Balls dropped the Labour Manifesto on the table and more or less said 'sign up to that and you can have a coalition'. One of the LD negotiators turned to the page on electoral reform and asked if Labour would agree to implement it. It took a whole day's negotiation to get Labour to agree to implement their own policy (AV+). that's one side of the story. In the drama docu coalition, the Lib Dems said that a coalition would have a mandate for electoral reform without referendum. Mandelson believed this was to give the Lib Dems more time to get a deal with the Tories. Brown called Clegg told him if he wasn't serious he'd be resigning. He 'wouldn't go in the dark'. Clegg has said he regrets treating brown the way he did
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Jun 13, 2022 9:19:34 GMT
The fundamental point is that it would never have had the numbers anyway. Labour + LD would not have had a majority. The SNP would not have backed it. It would have ended up like 1979 - Labour having to do a deal with us but also keep Plaid Cymru, the Green, various NI MPs, sweet as well - and it wouldn't have lasted
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Post by gibbon on Jun 13, 2022 9:46:52 GMT
The mistake that Clegg made was to trust the Tories over electoral reform. By agreeing to a referendum on the Alternative vote in return for a reduced numbers of MPs he failed to take into account that many Labour voters would reject this as a way of punishing the Liberal Democrats for joining the Cameron Government and actively supporting the Conservative austerity plans. Many Labour members distrust the Liberal Democrats for their behaviour and this could be an obstacle to electoral regorm in the future.
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Post by michaelarden on Jun 13, 2022 9:57:39 GMT
It would be electorial disaster for the SNP to vote with the Tories to bring down a Labour Government and they know it. Anyway all labour has to do is to say during the election campaign is that although they are a unionist party if there is a pro refurememdum majority In the 2026 Holyrood elections there will be a referemfum and they will vote against it in \\\\\holyrood and campaign foor a no vote in any referemdum Except there is a pro independence majority and pro referendum majority in the current Scottish parliament and Labour have explicity said they would deny a section 30 order. Labour is chasing hard unionist votes in Scotland and can't be seen to accomodate any pro indy sentiment - even if that means working with the Tories north of the border. The issue is no longer pro/anti Tory it's pro/anti union.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 13, 2022 10:14:37 GMT
I think this is actually a slight oversimplification, ScotLab seem to be less willing to work with the Tories now.
If anything they seem to be trying to move beyond the simplistic Yes/No binary which benefits primarily the Nats but also props up the Johnson-toxified Tories.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 13, 2022 16:02:23 GMT
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Terry Weldon
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Post by Terry Weldon on Jun 14, 2022 9:07:53 GMT
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 14, 2022 9:37:25 GMT
And only 22.8K followers!
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 14, 2022 16:10:29 GMT
And only 22.8K followers! And here it is:
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 14, 2022 16:20:51 GMT
Comments below the post suggest that three of their seats would remain Tory - Bassetlaw, Great Grimsby and Dudley North.
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