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Post by Merseymike on Jun 28, 2022 10:55:28 GMT
Given that tactical voting is now very much on the agenda, it may mean the LibDem vote is often under-estimated or interpreted in terms of national distribution, rather than local intention. Its going to be difficult to measure that or ask questions which would reflect what might happen in practice
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Jun 28, 2022 10:59:59 GMT
another outlier How many outliers make a summer? 🤔
Is this a euphemism for topless or nude sunbathing?
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 28, 2022 20:01:49 GMT
How many outliers make a summer? 🤔
Is this a euphemism for topless or nude sunbathing?
Don't know. Some find nude sunbathing hard to swallow...
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 30, 2022 16:12:02 GMT
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Post by gibbon on Jul 1, 2022 10:31:30 GMT
The general trend in all recent opinion polls and local council byelections is a major swing away from the Conservatives. Threats by Johnson to Conservative rebels should be treated as bluster since they know he would lose power. Sadly for them they left it a little to late to organise his removal and unless they can change the rules to have another vote of confidence they are stuck with him until next year. I pity Conservative councillors next year who are up for election next May since another year of Johnson will make even the safest seat seem marginal. In 1995 in Leeds the Conservatives held only one seat and lost some of their safest to Labour. Could the same happen again?
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Post by andrewp on Jul 4, 2022 20:35:08 GMT
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 7, 2022 16:05:57 GMT
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Post by aargauer on Jul 7, 2022 17:12:50 GMT
It says something about the choice available that our abject joke of a party is polling over 30%.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Jul 7, 2022 19:26:58 GMT
It says something about the choice available that our abject joke of a party is polling over 30%. Especially as, looking at the data tables, about half of undecided voters (14% of voters) are 2019 Conservative voters (weighted for turnout) - which equates to about 7% of voters: Undecided | Ave | Min | Max | 2019 Con | 49.8% | 39.7% | 59.9% | 2019 Lab | 6.9% | 1.8% | 12.0% | 2019 LDm | 7.6% | 2.3% | 13.0% | 2019 Nat | 2.1% | >0.0% | 4.9% | 2019 Grn | 2.3% | >0.0% | 5.3% | 2019 Brx | 1.1% | >0.0% | 3.2% | 2019 Oth | 2.7% | >0.0% | 6.0% | 2019 DNV | 27.5% | 18.5% | 36.5% |
If you return all 2019 voters to their previous party, it changes the numbers to Lab 39 (-4), Con 35 (+4), LDm 12 (nc), Grn 6 (-1), Nat 3 (nc), RUK 2 (nc), Oth 3 (nc). If there's a credible Conservative leader, it's possible there will be a quick closing of the polls - even without taking into account those who say they'd vote for another party right now as a result of Johnson's premiership.
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 8, 2022 19:30:15 GMT
It says something about the choice available that our abject joke of a party is polling over 30%. Especially as, looking at the data tables, about half of undecided voters (14% of voters) are 2019 Conservative voters (weighted for turnout) - which equates to about 7% of voters: Undecided | Ave | Min | Max | 2019 Con | 49.8% | 39.7% | 59.9% | 2019 Lab | 6.9% | 1.8% | 12.0% | 2019 LDm | 7.6% | 2.3% | 13.0% | 2019 Nat | 2.1% | >0.0% | 4.9% | 2019 Grn | 2.3% | >0.0% | 5.3% | 2019 Brx | 1.1% | >0.0% | 3.2% | 2019 Oth | 2.7% | >0.0% | 6.0% | 2019 DNV | 27.5% | 18.5% | 36.5% |
If you return all 2019 voters to their previous party, it changes the numbers to Lab 39 (-4), Con 35 (+4), LDm 12 (nc), Grn 6 (-1), Nat 3 (nc), RUK 2 (nc), Oth 3 (nc). If there's a credible Conservative leader, it's possible there will be a quick closing of the polls - even without taking into account those who say they'd vote for another party right now as a result of Johnson's premiership. I agree.. But higher inflation, higher gas prices and Tory members who will vote for the new leader who delivers cuts in tax and spend are all on their way.
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Post by aargauer on Jul 8, 2022 19:41:36 GMT
Especially as, looking at the data tables, about half of undecided voters (14% of voters) are 2019 Conservative voters (weighted for turnout) - which equates to about 7% of voters: Undecided | Ave | Min | Max | 2019 Con | 49.8% | 39.7% | 59.9% | 2019 Lab | 6.9% | 1.8% | 12.0% | 2019 LDm | 7.6% | 2.3% | 13.0% | 2019 Nat | 2.1% | >0.0% | 4.9% | 2019 Grn | 2.3% | >0.0% | 5.3% | 2019 Brx | 1.1% | >0.0% | 3.2% | 2019 Oth | 2.7% | >0.0% | 6.0% | 2019 DNV | 27.5% | 18.5% | 36.5% |
If you return all 2019 voters to their previous party, it changes the numbers to Lab 39 (-4), Con 35 (+4), LDm 12 (nc), Grn 6 (-1), Nat 3 (nc), RUK 2 (nc), Oth 3 (nc). If there's a credible Conservative leader, it's possible there will be a quick closing of the polls - even without taking into account those who say they'd vote for another party right now as a result of Johnson's premiership. I agree.. But higher inflation, higher gas prices and Tory members who will vote for the new leader who delivers cuts in tax and spend are all on their way. Lower inflation and gas prices are more likely in the next year.
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 8, 2022 20:44:39 GMT
I agree.. But higher inflation, higher gas prices and Tory members who will vote for the new leader who delivers cuts in tax and spend are all on their way. Lower inflation and gas prices are more likely in the next year. Us older folks remember that inflation is hard to control, and last time it went above 10% it took over 10 years to get it below 8% again. My first mortgage cost 16% interest.. And we look likely to go into this with stagflation which really will make people very unhappy...
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Post by aargauer on Jul 8, 2022 20:52:18 GMT
Lower inflation and gas prices are more likely in the next year. Us older folks remember that inflation is hard to control, and last time it went above 10% it took over 10 years to get it below 8% again. My first mortgage cost 16% interest.. And we look likely to go into this with stagflation which really will make people very unhappy... If inflation stays that high we are absolutely toast. By we I mean both the Conservative government and the country.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 11, 2022 16:13:46 GMT
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Jul 14, 2022 11:06:59 GMT
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Post by batman on Jul 14, 2022 13:34:43 GMT
My suspicion tends to be that Johnson's departure will rather strengthen Labour in the so-called Red Wall, but weaken us somewhat in certain other areas, or perhaps weaken other opposition parties such as the Lib Dems. It's a question of what the equation is. Some Southern seats have somewhat Red Wall-type voting patterns, so perhaps it's best not to generalise regionally (Plymouth Moor View comes to mind for example, even though it was a Tory gain sooner than the Red Wall which is normally spoken about)
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,809
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Post by jamie on Jul 14, 2022 14:09:06 GMT
My suspicion tends to be that Johnson's departure will rather strengthen Labour in the so-called Red Wall, but weaken us somewhat in certain other areas, or perhaps weaken other opposition parties such as the Lib Dems. It's a question of what the equation is. Some Southern seats have somewhat Red Wall-type voting patterns, so perhaps it's best not to generalise regionally (Plymouth Moor View comes to mind for example, even though it was a Tory gain sooner than the Red Wall which is normally spoken about) Agreed. All else equal, a move to the economic right (in substance but also focus) after Johnson should attract ‘Blue Wall’ type voters whose Conservative inclanation is based on economic issues, while alienating ‘Red Wall’ type voters whose Conservative inclination is based on cultural issues.
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 15, 2022 10:17:21 GMT
Clearly most popular decision Boris has made so far
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 18, 2022 17:16:21 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 18, 2022 17:18:44 GMT
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