|
Post by bjornhattan on Apr 12, 2021 21:06:08 GMT
Just for fun, I thought I'd take a look at which seats would flip if the North East voted 49-38. I think the list is: Newcastle upon Tyne North Blaydon North Durham City of Durham Washington and Sunderland West Tynemouth Houghton and Sunderland South Sunderland Central Wansbeck Stockton North Labour would be reduced to the single digits in terms of seats, would be wiped out in Sunderland, and would have just one seat in County Durham. And it's worth noting that even Jarrow, of all places, would become very marginal - if its large Brexit Party and independent vote led to a larger swing than average for the region, even one of Britain's most iconic socialist seats could fall. Of course, this is all just a bit of fun, and I know reading into sub samples is a dangerous game. But it's still absolutely crazy that I can even contemplate any of this (and being from the region, it's music to my ears). But Labour are not 11 points behind in the north east. The idea is ridiculous I agree it's unlikely, but ridiculous? A few years ago if you'd told the residents of Redcar or Blyth they'd have Conservative MPs, they would have called you ridiculous! There's certainly major shifts going on in this region, and while that exact margin might not be right, the direction of travel seemingly is. I wouldn't be remotely surprised if more people intend to vote Conservative than Labour in the North East at the next general election (whether they will is another question).
|
|
|
Post by justin124 on Apr 12, 2021 22:48:51 GMT
But Labour are not 11 points behind in the north east. The idea is ridiculous I agree it's unlikely, but ridiculous? A few years ago if you'd told the residents of Redcar or Blyth they'd have Conservative MPs, they would have called you ridiculous! There's certainly major shifts going on in this region, and while that exact margin might not be right, the direction of travel seemingly is. I wouldn't be remotely surprised if more people intend to vote Conservative than Labour in the North East at the next general election (whether they will is another question). If this data were to be accurate in respect of the North East, it implies that elsewhere in the UK there must be a very big swing to Labour which more than compensates for this. A 7% Tory lead - compared with 11.8% in 2019 GE - implies an overall swing from Tory to Labour of nearly 2.5% - but the swing in other regions must be much higher than that if the North East really is swinging to the Tories. Where would this be?
|
|
|
Post by bjornhattan on Apr 12, 2021 22:58:27 GMT
I agree it's unlikely, but ridiculous? A few years ago if you'd told the residents of Redcar or Blyth they'd have Conservative MPs, they would have called you ridiculous! There's certainly major shifts going on in this region, and while that exact margin might not be right, the direction of travel seemingly is. I wouldn't be remotely surprised if more people intend to vote Conservative than Labour in the North East at the next general election (whether they will is another question). If this data were to be accurate in respect of the North East, it implies that elsewhere in the UK there must be a very big swing to Labour which more than compensates for this. A 7% Tory lead - compared with 11.8% in 2019 GE - implies an overall swing from Tory to Labour of nearly 2.5% - but the swing in other regions must be much higher than that if the North East really is swinging to the Tories. Where would this be? It wouldn't need to be that much higher - remember that the North East is a very small region, so if it swings (say) 3% from Labour to the Tories, then the rest of the country would need to swing 2.8% from the Conservatives to Labour instead of 2.5% to counterbalance that. As to where this is happening - I'd guess most clearly in the South East. There's a lot of Lib Dem voters for Labour to woo there, it is the wealthiest part of the country so wavering voters Corbyn's socialism scared off are likely pretty numerous here, and it is Starmer's home region.
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Apr 12, 2021 23:02:12 GMT
I agree it's unlikely, but ridiculous? A few years ago if you'd told the residents of Redcar or Blyth they'd have Conservative MPs, they would have called you ridiculous! There's certainly major shifts going on in this region, and while that exact margin might not be right, the direction of travel seemingly is. I wouldn't be remotely surprised if more people intend to vote Conservative than Labour in the North East at the next general election (whether they will is another question). If this data were to be accurate in respect of the North East, it implies that elsewhere in the UK there must be a very big swing to Labour which more than compensates for this. A 7% Tory lead - compared with 11.8% in 2019 GE - implies an overall swing from Tory to Labour of nearly 2.5% - but the swing in other regions must be much higher than that if the North East really is swinging to the Tories. Where would this be? Places like London, Reading, Milton Keynes, Brighton, Bristol, High Wycombe, Northampton, Bournemouth.
|
|
European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,618
|
Post by European Lefty on Apr 12, 2021 23:16:13 GMT
I agree it's unlikely, but ridiculous? A few years ago if you'd told the residents of Redcar or Blyth they'd have Conservative MPs, they would have called you ridiculous! There's certainly major shifts going on in this region, and while that exact margin might not be right, the direction of travel seemingly is. I wouldn't be remotely surprised if more people intend to vote Conservative than Labour in the North East at the next general election (whether they will is another question). If this data were to be accurate in respect of the North East, it implies that elsewhere in the UK there must be a very big swing to Labour which more than compensates for this. A 7% Tory lead - compared with 11.8% in 2019 GE - implies an overall swing from Tory to Labour of nearly 2.5% - but the swing in other regions must be much higher than that if the North East really is swinging to the Tories. Where would this be? Swings rounded to the nearest whole number based on comparing data tables to 2019 actual: UK-wide: Con -1 Lab +4; overall swing 2.5% Con to Lab North East: Con +11 Lab -5; overall swing 8% Lab to Con North West: Con +3 Lab -3; overall swing 3% Lab to Con Yorkshire: Con -7 Lab +10; overall swing 8.5% Con to Lab W Midlands: Con -14 Lab +8; overall swing 11% Con to Lab E Midlands: Con -5 Lab +9; overall swing 7% Con to Lab E Anglia: Con -1 Lab +6; overall swing 2.5% Con to Lab London: Con +3 Lab -3; overall swing 3% Lab to Con South East: Con +4 Lab +3; overall swing 0.5% Lab to Con if meaningful South West: Con -15 Lab +7; overall swing 11% Con to Lab Wales: Con +4 Lab -7; overall swing 5.5% Lab to Con Scotland: SNP -1 Con +1 Lab +5; overall swing gibberish So there are apparently monster Con to Lab swings in Yorkshire, the West Midlands and the South West. The last lot of cross-tabs were similar; I didn't believe them and I don't believe these
|
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,341
|
Post by YL on Apr 13, 2021 6:46:43 GMT
Usual obvious points: the subsamples are pretty small (the NE figures are based on 77 respondents) and regional subsamples will not be properly weighted. Even if there's a consistent pattern (and on those sample sizes we really need more than two polls to see that) it may be to do with a sampling issue rather than that there really are widely differing swings north and south of the Tees.
|
|
|
Post by akmd on Apr 13, 2021 9:46:45 GMT
If this data were to be accurate in respect of the North East, it implies that elsewhere in the UK there must be a very big swing to Labour which more than compensates for this. A 7% Tory lead - compared with 11.8% in 2019 GE - implies an overall swing from Tory to Labour of nearly 2.5% - but the swing in other regions must be much higher than that if the North East really is swinging to the Tories. Where would this be? It wouldn't need to be that much higher - remember that the North East is a very small region, so if it swings (say) 3% from Labour to the Tories, then the rest of the country would need to swing 2.8% from the Conservatives to Labour instead of 2.5% to counterbalance that. As to where this is happening - I'd guess most clearly in the South East. There's a lot of Lib Dem voters for Labour to woo there, it is the wealthiest part of the country so wavering voters Corbyn's socialism scared off are likely pretty numerous here, and it is Starmer's home region. I wouldn’t be surprised if Labour made gains in places like Hastings & Rye, Wycombe, Reading West, Milton Keynes North and even Worthing East & Shoreham while at the same time failing to win back seats like Bishop Auckland, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Bassetlaw and Copeland.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,658
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 13, 2021 10:16:52 GMT
Yes, but that's not the same as some regions actually swinging even further to the Tories than the last GE - which is what this poll claims. (and it also, re the above posts, shows hardly any swing in the SE) Its really a reminder that polls are like sausages, even if the finished product is perfectly OK you don't really want to see how they are actually made
|
|
Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,140
|
Post by Jack on Apr 15, 2021 15:07:15 GMT
Why is this even a question?
|
|
|
Post by pragmaticidealist on Apr 15, 2021 15:13:39 GMT
Why is this even a question? If anything it should be compulsory to be drunk at the time of voting. It might produce better governments.
|
|
|
Post by matureleft on Apr 15, 2021 15:25:12 GMT
Why is this even a question? I presume because that's the practice in a number of countries, particularly in Latin America (and quite a few US states). I've never heard of such a ban being suggested here?
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Apr 17, 2021 20:24:00 GMT
Do we know who commissioned that poll, or arranged for the question to be dropped in?
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Apr 19, 2021 16:23:30 GMT
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,523
|
Post by johng on Apr 20, 2021 13:26:50 GMT
The other mayoral poll is for the West Midlands.
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,523
|
Post by johng on Apr 22, 2021 10:22:49 GMT
|
|
Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,543
Member is Online
|
Post by Khunanup on Apr 22, 2021 12:12:56 GMT
Selecting the truly dreadful Liam Byrne never seemed like a terribly bright idea...
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,658
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 22, 2021 12:23:28 GMT
A reminder that we managed to pick somebody even worse in 2017.....
|
|
|
Post by agbutler on Apr 22, 2021 19:00:25 GMT
Selecting the truly dreadful Liam Byrne never seemed like a terribly bright idea... The other option was Salma Yaqoob...
|
|
|
Post by Jamie #LD #FBPE He/Him on Apr 22, 2021 20:25:31 GMT
At least he didn’t call them red wall seats urgh
|
|
Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,543
Member is Online
|
Post by Khunanup on Apr 24, 2021 18:05:16 GMT
Selecting the truly dreadful Liam Byrne never seemed like a terribly bright idea... The other option was Salma Yaqoob... Well it's a bit of an indictment of the West Midlands Mayor area Labour Parties that those two were the best you could come up with... And I'm sorry, but Byrne is even worse than your last candidate, I mean, really bottom scraping stuff.
|
|