Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Jul 14, 2020 15:16:26 GMT
The article quotes [NZ first leader and deputy PM] Winston Peters "Todd never had a chance, given the fault lines of ambition, personality and ideology that run deep through the National Party Caucus," Mr Peters said in a statement. "National has demonstrated to voters as clearly as it is able that it cannot govern itself." Ermmm.... Hang on... isn't this the same Winston Peters who used to be a member of the National Party, was considered to be a rebel, was derided as being media hungry and then founded his own party. It's a bit rich of him! may I introduce you to Winston Peters... |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 14, 2020 17:36:43 GMT
Winston Peters firmly believes this, and unwaveringly supports this. But what "this" is can change, pivot to its opposite, or vanish.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2020 21:04:00 GMT
Clearly he doesn't anticipate having to pursue a del with the National Party after the election
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 14, 2020 21:08:40 GMT
Clearly he doesn't anticipate having to pursue a del with the National Party after the election If the opinion polling is accurate, and there’s no major shift before September, he’s not going to be doing a deal with anybody; NZF haven’t been at the 5% threshold for a list seat since February, and I would imagine he’s unlikely to win his FPTP electorate back should he choose to contest it. |
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Post by greenhert on Jul 14, 2020 21:51:53 GMT
Clearly he doesn't anticipate having to pursue a del with the National Party after the election If the opinion polling is accurate, and there’s no major shift before September, he’s not going to be doing a deal with anybody; NZF haven’t been at the 5% threshold for a list seat since February, and I would imagine he’s unlikely to win his FPTP electorate back should he choose to contest it. What is more, New Zealand First are polling behind the hardline free-marketeers ACT, who are winning over some of their voters. |
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Jul 14, 2020 22:09:30 GMT
What is more, New Zealand First are polling behind the hardline free-marketeers ACT, who are winning over some of their voters. Have you got evidence for that? I’m not saying it’s impossible, but my priors were ACT attract vaguely libertarian voters (and particularly recently progressive voters who like their social libertarianism on abortion, drugs etc). Conversely, NZF voters are much more authoritarian and not not exactly stoic free marketeers. Their voters seem pretty much polar opposites. |
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Jul 14, 2020 22:11:20 GMT
Clearly he doesn't anticipate having to pursue a del with the National Party after the election The National Party told him to piss off a while ago so voters are under no illusion who Peters would prefer to go into government with. |
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 15, 2020 2:42:04 GMT
What is more, New Zealand First are polling behind the hardline free-marketeers ACT, who are winning over some of their voters. Have you got evidence for that? I’m not saying it’s impossible, but my priors were ACT attract vaguely libertarian voters (and particularly recently progressive voters who like their social libertarianism on abortion, drugs etc). Conversely, NZF voters are much more authoritarian and not not exactly stoic free marketeers. Their voters seem pretty much polar opposites. Worth noting ACT haven’t broken 5% in a published poll - they were bang on 5% in the last poll, so may still only end up with David Seymour winning his constituency electorate where the Nationals usually stand aside. I suspect if ACT are picking up NZF voters it’s disillusioned Nationals who are unhappy with the apparent failure to recover from their 2017 performance but also feel betrayed by NZF throwing its support behind Labor. The Nats are likely to go hard on keeping NZF out of the Parliament as it makes a Nats/ACT coalition easier to achieve as Labor and the Greens have little room for significant growth without hurting each other (that’s predicated on Ardern’s personal popularity not giving her Party coattails, but normally you wouldn’t expect many NZF voters to go to Labor or the Greens). |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 22, 2020 1:59:52 GMT
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jul 22, 2020 2:29:04 GMT
Oh dear,this may be the moment the Nats could capitalise on to turn around their fortune. Though Ardern's position does look pretty unassailable from an outsider's viewpoint. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 22, 2020 8:01:06 GMT
Oh dear,this may be the moment the Nats could capitalise on to turn around their fortune.Though Ardern's position does look pretty unassailable from an outsider's viewpoint. I really don't think so, especially given they've had five resignations themselves and are on their third leader in a short space of time.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 22, 2020 10:09:55 GMT
Indeed, people's memories can be short - but surely not *that* short.....
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 22, 2020 12:13:37 GMT
Arden’s really handled it well also - “I found out, I sacked him, I did him the courtesy of holding off announcing it for 24 hours to allow him to tell his family”. No denial, no attempt to defend him, no hoping it’ll all blow over. Her only political danger is it looks a swingy electorate and there’s not much chance to introduce a new candidate; on the flip side the National candidate is only 18 so they were probably hoping not to attract the national media spotlight.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2020 12:20:29 GMT
Question: do MPs with significant personal votes often win list votes for their party as well? Or is it more that they attract electorate votes from people who vote for someone else in the list?
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 22, 2020 12:38:59 GMT
Question: do MPs with significant personal votes often win list votes for their party as well? Or is it more that they attract electorate votes from people who vote for someone else in the list? It may be a mixture; Winston Peters lost his electorate but NZF cleared 5%, whereas David Seymour won his electorate for ACT whilst the Party only got 0.5% of the list vote. It’s likely, though probably not provable, that Ardern’s personal popularity added a bit to Labour’s list vote. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jul 22, 2020 20:41:33 GMT
Oh dear,this may be the moment the Nats could capitalise on to turn around their fortune.Though Ardern's position does look pretty unassailable from an outsider's viewpoint. I really don't think so, especially given they've had five resignations themselves and are on their third leader in a short space of time.
Fair enough, just I know what the media are like over here with people who make small mistakes. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 22, 2020 20:48:32 GMT
I really don't think so, especially given they've had five resignations themselves and are on their third leader in a short space of time.
Fair enough, just I know what the media are like over here with people who make small mistakes. Sure but this wouldn't be enough to swing an election or probably even his seat. As tim mullen said, the PM dealt with it with exemplary swiftness. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Jul 22, 2020 20:55:33 GMT
Question: do MPs with significant personal votes often win list votes for their party as well? Or is it more that they attract electorate votes from people who vote for someone else in the list? It may be a mixture; Winston Peters lost his electorate but NZF cleared 5%, whereas David Seymour won his electorate for ACT whilst the Party only got 0.5% of the list vote. It’s likely, though probably not provable, that Ardern’s personal popularity added a bit to Labour’s list vote. ACT generally win their electorate because National give voters a nod and a wink to vote ACT for the constituency instead so the party can clear the threshold and get a National friendly partner into parliament. Unless it's changed in recent years New Zealand uses a single ballot paper for both the constituency and list votes and there's an information only count that shows the combinations. National normally has quite a high both votes score (whereas there's a lot of splitting between Labour and the Greens) but this plummets in electorates where they're trying to get a coalition partner in (who in turn often have a miniscule list vote in the seat). |
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Jul 26, 2020 14:02:44 GMT
NewsHub poll:
Labour - 61%
National - 25%
Green - 6%
ACT - 3%
NZ First - 2%
There’s got to be a turnaround at some point, right...?
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 26, 2020 14:09:46 GMT
NewsHub poll: Labour - 61% National - 25% Green - 6% ACT - 3% NZ First - 2% There’s got to be a turnaround at some point, right...? Obviously suggests no leadership bounce for National. Green over 5% gives Labour cover should a coalition be needed, but NZF and ACT are looking at best at one constituency seat. |
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