nelson
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Post by nelson on Mar 19, 2020 7:33:28 GMT
This election is supposed to happen on 19 September, but might be postponed. So far PM Adern has been lauded for her strong crisis management, but NZ is inevitably getting into recession which will benefit the Nats, so it's probably in the government's interest to stick to the original date. The NZ election is a big event. Could it be delayed in a Covid-19 world? |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Mar 19, 2020 10:07:18 GMT
This election is supposed to happen on 19 September, but might be postponed. So far PM Adern has been lauded for her strong crisis management, but NZ is inevitably getting into recession which will benefit the Nats, so it's probably in the government's interest to stick to the original date. The NZ election is a big event. Could it be delayed in a Covid-19 world?Link not working. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Mar 19, 2020 10:14:52 GMT
This election is supposed to happen on 19 September, but might be postponed. So far PM Adern has been lauded for her strong crisis management, but NZ is inevitably getting into recession which will benefit the Nats, so it's probably in the government's interest to stick to the original date. The NZ election is a big event. Could it be delayed in a Covid-19 world?Link not working. Fixed |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Mar 20, 2020 0:39:14 GMT
Probably not my cup of tea regarding political philosophy, but it is undeniable that Arden has been an impressive leader through some pretty shit moments for New Zealand. At least that's the image I get as an international observer. On that basis, I would be strongly tempted to vote for her.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on May 1, 2020 16:00:55 GMT
Leaked Labour internal poll:
Labour - 55%
NAT - 29%
NZF - 6%
Green - 5%
ACT - 3%
Ardern - 65%
Current + potential Nat leaders - 14%
Labour internal and clearly quite biased in their direction, but even then still suggestive of a substantial swing in Labour’s favour over the past few months. Greens and NZF hovering near the threshold and no movement from previous internals so worrying for them, but would make a Labour majority easier.
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Post by matureleft on May 1, 2020 16:12:18 GMT
It's interesting how smoothly the coalition with New Zealand First appears to have worked. Admittedly Peters and his party have no strong ideology. They appear likely to suffer the fate of junior coalition partners.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2020 16:28:45 GMT
It's no surprise. Almost every government has had boost in these difficult times
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Post by matureleft on May 1, 2020 16:34:25 GMT
Not sure that's true. Trump is an obvious exception to that rule (although he did get a small, very short-term boost). How have the Spanish, Italian and French governments fared?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2020 16:48:24 GMT
Not sure that's true. Trump is an obvious exception to that rule (although he did get a small, very short-term boost). How have the Spanish, Italian and French governments fared? Trump currently seems to be having some of his best approval ratings since he's become President. In Spain PSOE continue to lead the polls. In Italy Lega Nord do as well while their coalition partners 5 Star continue to fall. France Macrons approval ratings too have improved |
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Post by matureleft on May 1, 2020 16:55:21 GMT
Not sure that's true. Trump is an obvious exception to that rule (although he did get a small, very short-term boost). How have the Spanish, Italian and French governments fared? . In Spain PSOE continue to lead the polls. In Italy Lega Nord do as well while their coalition partners 5 Star continue to fall. France Macrons approval ratings too have improved No. Trump did go up but has since settled back at his normal low 40s approval. Indeed he's recently rowed with his campaign team because they have shared data indicating broadly that the more people hear from him on this the less they like what he says.
In Italy Lega Nord are out of government and we have an uneasy coalition of the Democratic Party and 5 Star.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2020 16:58:47 GMT
Trump currently seems to be having some of his best approval ratings since he's become President. In Spain PSOE continue to lead the polls. In Italy Lega Nord do as well while their coalition partners 5 Star continue to fall. France Macrons approval ratings too have improved No. Trump did go up but has since settled back at his normal low 40s approval. Indeed he's recently rowed with his campaign team because they have shared data indicating broadly that the more people hear from him on this the less they like what he says.
In Italy Lega Nord are out of government and we have an uneasy coalition of the Democratic Party and 5 Star.
oh shit im behind on my Italian politics |
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Post by timrollpickering on May 1, 2020 18:04:45 GMT
Greens and NZF hovering near the threshold and no movement from previous internals so worrying for them, but would make a Labour majority easier. I wonder if there will be pressure for a constituency arrangement to help get the Greens an insurance seat? |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on May 1, 2020 18:29:11 GMT
Greens and NZF hovering near the threshold and no movement from previous internals so worrying for them, but would make a Labour majority easier. I wonder if there will be pressure for a constituency arrangement to help get the Greens an insurance seat? Could do, the same would make sense (though less likely) for New Zealand 1st (Peters lost Northland 34% to 38% for the Nationals in 2017, with the combined NZF+Lab constituency vote at 56%). The National-ACT arrangement will presumably continue, and this time might actually lead to some list seats for ACT (the 2017 arrangement was in practice pointless). |
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Post by John Chanin on May 1, 2020 19:31:49 GMT
This election is supposed to happen on 19 September, but might be postponed. So far PM Adern has been lauded for her strong crisis management, but NZ is inevitably getting into recession which will benefit the Nats, so it's probably in the government's interest to stick to the original date. The NZ election is a big event. Could it be delayed in a Covid-19 world?New Zealand is a very remote place, and has chosen to squash the virus and cut itself off from the rest of the world. There is therefore no reason why the election should not take place as normal. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on May 1, 2020 19:41:58 GMT
This election is supposed to happen on 19 September, but might be postponed. So far PM Adern has been lauded for her strong crisis management, but NZ is inevitably getting into recession which will benefit the Nats, so it's probably in the government's interest to stick to the original date. The NZ election is a big event. Could it be delayed in a Covid-19 world?New Zealand is a very remote place, and has chosen to squash the virus and cut itself off from the rest of the world. There is therefore no reason why the election should not take place as normal. No place is really "remote" in today's world and avoiding all contract with the outside world isn't possible. The NZ strategy could very well result in a second bout in autumn. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on May 18, 2020 12:39:08 GMT
New non-internal poll
Lab - 57%
Nat - 31%
Green - 6%
NZF - 3%
ACT - 2%
Jacinda Ardern - 60%
Actual Nat Leader - 5%
Potential Nat Leader - 3%
Presumably still a corona bounce for Labour/Ardern, but jeez....
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on May 18, 2020 13:50:47 GMT
Actual Nat leader being Simon Bridges though..
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Post by pragmaticidealist on May 19, 2020 13:06:39 GMT
Up until now National had been polling well throughout this Parliament, despite Ardern always being quite popular.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on May 19, 2020 15:07:01 GMT
Up until now National had been polling well throughout this Parliament, despite Ardern always being quite popular. National were always polling around their 2017 result (which was a bit below a majority) with Labour up a few % and NZF down a few (unclear if direct movement or churn). They could have potentially won a majority on the polling if NZF or potentially even the Greens had missed the threshold. I do wonder if there would have inevitably been some swing to Labour by Election Day considering the fundamentals (Ardern’s popularity, comfortable majority think the NZ is on the right track etc). |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 20, 2020 19:50:49 GMT
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