Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Nov 15, 2019 11:56:38 GMT
What's happening in Inverness?
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Post by Deleted on Nov 15, 2019 11:58:51 GMT
What's happening in Inverness? From what I hear, it sounds like an SNP win. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 15, 2019 11:59:50 GMT
Shap 17% swing Con>LD. Swing cannot be calculated in the absence of a Labour candidate. That's quite high too.  JFTFY |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 15, 2019 12:02:26 GMT
What's happening in Inverness? From what I hear, it sounds like an SNP win. 110 votes off the quota at stage 1. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Nov 15, 2019 12:06:16 GMT
What's happening in Inverness? From what I hear, it sounds like an SNP win. Well, they were well ahead last time, but some numbers would be nice. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 15, 2019 12:08:12 GMT
Inverness Central By-Election: Stage 1
SNP: 1,015 (45.2%);
Con: 345 (15.3%);
Ind: 277 (12.3%)
LD: 237 (10.5%)
Grn: 220 (9.8%)
Lab: 154 (6.9%)
Turnout: 2,248 (25.6%)
Quota: 1,125
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Post by Deleted on Nov 15, 2019 12:28:13 GMT
Inverness Central By-Election: Stage 2
SNP: 1,033 [+18] (45.9%);
Con: 349 [+4] (15.5%);
Ind: 303 [+26] (13.5%)
LD: 266 [+29] (11.8%)
Grn: 238 [+18] (10.6%)
NT: 59 [+59] (2.6%)
Turnout: 2,248 (25.6%)
Quota: 1,125
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Post by listener on Nov 15, 2019 12:33:42 GMT
I realise that these results are rather mixed for all parties, apart from the SNP. For what it is worth these are Labour's change of vote share, as I have calculated them,
Eden (Shap) - no Labour candidates
Fife (Dunfermline Central) - down 13.1% since 2017
Fife (Rosyth) - down 3.1% since 2017
Highland (Inverness Central) - down 10.0% since 2017
Neath Port Talbot (Rhos) - down 23.8% since 2017
Powys (St. Mary) - up 16.4% since 2017
Torbay (Goodrington with Roselands) - down 2.3% since May 2019
Tunbridge Wells (Culverden) - down 14.3% since 2016
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Nov 15, 2019 12:36:04 GMT
Don’t think many saw that coming! Regarding St Mary's it wasn't a surprise when the con councillor stood down I knew we lost it it's all red around the ward it was just the local woman keeping it blue The result is similar to the one from the by-election for Brecon Town Council in the same ward last December... The Brecon & Radnor Express - Success for Brecon Labour in close by-electionEdit: Vote count from that two seats poll. Percentages are according to the averages method.
33.7% 288 Mark Perry - Labour
284 Tomos Davies - Labour
30.5% 275 Dawn McIntosh - Conservative
242 Alan Roberts - Conservative
14% 119 David Whittle - Liberal Democrat
12% 102 Nigel Clubb - Plaid Cymru
5.8% 49 Geoff Goodenough - Independent
4% 34 Phil Brown - Independent
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Post by afleitch on Nov 15, 2019 12:49:38 GMT
The 4 party share in the Scottish by-elections with change on 2017 4 party share
SNP 43.5 (+3.8)
CON 25.3 (-0.3)
LIB 17.2 (+9.1)
LAB 14.0 (-12.6)
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Post by Deleted on Nov 15, 2019 12:54:29 GMT
Inverness Central By-Election: Stage 3
SNP: 1,115 [+82] (49.6%) ELECTED
Con: 360 [+11] (16.0%)
Ind: 338 [+35] (15.0%)
LD: 325 [+59] (14.5%)
NT: 110 [+51] (4.9%)
Turnout: 2,248 (25.6%)
Quota: 1,125
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Nov 15, 2019 13:42:23 GMT
The mixiest bag of results for quite some weeks.
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Nov 15, 2019 13:45:56 GMT
The 4 party share in the Scottish by-elections with change on 2017 4 party share SNP 43.5 (+3.8) CON 25.3 (-0.3) LIB 17.2 (+9.1) LAB 14.0 (-12.6) These sort of swings are why I think all the Cybernat predictions of the doom of Jo Swinson are a bit far-fetched. Yes, the SNP are up, but the Lib Dems are up more, and it's not just here that we've seen that. And that's on top of any local special effort thrown at her seat. So I think a Swinson hold is far more likely than not. |
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Post by listener on Nov 15, 2019 14:18:53 GMT
A technical question, based on stage 3 figures for Inverness Central, reported above.
If the SNP candidate is on 1115 votes and has not yet reached the quota of 1125, then how can she be declared elected before a fourth stage?
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Nov 15, 2019 14:23:24 GMT
A technical question, based on stage 3 figures for Inverness Central, reported above. If the SNP candidate is on 1115 votes and has not yet reached the quota of 1125, then how can she be declared elected before a fourth stage? Because there are insufficient votes left between the remaining "live" candidates to overhaul her even if they all transferred to the same candidate. Note the pile of non-transferred votes, 110 of them after stage 3, they're not going anywhere else, so she has >50% of the votes identifiable with a candidate. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 15, 2019 16:47:46 GMT
Inverness Central By-Election: Stage 1SNP: 1,015 (45.2%); Con: 345 (15.3%); Ind: 277 (12.3%) LD: 237 (10.5%) Grn: 220 (9.8%) Lab: 154 (6.9%) Turnout: 2,248 (25.6%) Quota: 1,125 Decent result all round there except for Labour. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Nov 15, 2019 16:52:05 GMT
Inverness Central By-Election: Stage 1SNP: 1,015 (45.2%); Con: 345 (15.3%); Ind: 277 (12.3%) LD: 237 (10.5%) Grn: 220 (9.8%) Lab: 154 (6.9%) Turnout: 2,248 (25.6%) Quota: 1,125 Decent result all round there except for Labour. Perhaps unsurprisingly, it was the Green transfers that pushed the SNP over the line in Stage 3. By that stage, it was very close for second between Tory, Ind and LD, but all were way behind SNP. |
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Post by John Chanin on Nov 15, 2019 17:08:24 GMT
Re the earlier discussion, Shap may not be the "highest" ward in the country in the sense of having the highest point - but it may have the highest lowest point? Presumably the lowest high point is somewhere like Sutton Bridge ward in the fens |
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Post by La Fontaine on Nov 15, 2019 18:10:57 GMT
A technical question, based on stage 3 figures for Inverness Central, reported above. If the SNP candidate is on 1115 votes and has not yet reached the quota of 1125, then how can she be declared elected before a fourth stage? Because there are insufficient votes left between the remaining "live" candidates to overhaul her even if they all transferred to the same candidate. Note the pile of non-transferred votes, 110 of them after stage 3, they're not going anywhere else, so she has >50% of the votes identifiable with a candidate. In previous counts in Scotland, they have insisted upon reaching the quota, even to the extent of distributing the next preferences of the last eliminated candidate. It seems they have now got the message, at least in Highland. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Nov 15, 2019 18:36:38 GMT
Because there are insufficient votes left between the remaining "live" candidates to overhaul her even if they all transferred to the same candidate. Note the pile of non-transferred votes, 110 of them after stage 3, they're not going anywhere else, so she has >50% of the votes identifiable with a candidate. In previous counts in Scotland, they have insisted upon reaching the quota, even to the extent of distributing the next preferences of the last eliminated candidate. It seems they have now got the message, at least in Highland. I know, I've seen it. |
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