Local Council By-elections 7th November 2019

[Tony Otim]

Can I just say that the Pembrokeshire website is totally unusable.

CHELMSFORD DC; Marconi (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
BISHOP, Paul (Labour)
CHAMBERS, Steven (Independent)
HARVEY, Ben (Green)
McNALLY, Ben (Conservative)
RAJESH, Smita (Liberal Democrat)

2019: LD 729, 626; Con 395, 377; Lab 388, 337
2015: Con 883, 713; LD 725, 586; Lab 703, 673; UKIP 418; Grn 295; Ind 149; Lib 110, 40
2011: LD 641, 582; Lab 610, 554; Con 526, 485
2007: LD 531, 481; Lab 464, 424; Con 391, 382
2003: Lab 432, 400; Con 261, 236; LD 111, 110

Paul Bishop was the top Labour candidate in May and Ben McNally the second Conservative.

Current Council: LD 30; Con 21; Chelmsford Independents 5; 1 vacancy



CORNWALL UA; Wadebridge West (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
FLETCHER, Julia Elizabeth (Liberal Democrat)
HARRIS, Robyn Sara (No Description)
MITCHELL, Philip (Conservative)
MOORCROFT, Robin Edward (Independent)
PENNINGTON, Amanda Alice (Green)

2017: LD 605; Con 452; Grn 96; Lab 80
Apr 16by: LD 604; Con 356; Lab 222; Ind 111; Grn 95
2013: Con 830; LD 308; Lab 129

The Green candidate stood here in 2016 and 2017

Current Council: Con 47; LD 35; Ind 31; Lab 4; MK 4; Not specified 1; 1 vacancy



CROYDON LBC; Fairfield (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
EDWARDS, Jayde Tanisha (Conservative)
RENDLE, Andrew James (Liberal Democrat)
SAMUEL, Mark Robin Lionel (Independent)
SKIPPER, Caragh Louise (Labour)
SUTTON, Esther Mary (Green)
TWIDLE, Heather Jane (Women’s Equality Party)

2018: Lab 1351, 1329, 1226; Con 792, 753, 750; Grn 267, 266; LD 241, 209

Esther Sutton previously stood in the old Fairfield ward for the Greens back in 2010.

Current Council: Lab 40; Con 29; 1 vacancy



PEMBROKESHIRE UA; Hundleton (Ind died)
Candidates:
ALDERMAN, Steve (Independent)
BUSH, Daphne Margaret Jane (No Description)
EDWARDS, David William (Independent)
GRANGE, Barry Edward (Independent)
HAMMOND-WILLIAMS, Shirley Margaret (Liberal Democrats)
HANCOCK, Nicky (Independent)
NUTTING, Jonathan Anthony Robert (No Decsription)
STENSON, Tony (Independent)
TAYLOR, Jacob David (Conservative)

2017: Ind 334; Con 174; Ind 104, 69
2012: Ind 337, 297; Lab 120
2008: Ind unopp.
2004: Ind 469, 292

The deceased independent, Margot Bateman, was the runner up her in 2004 and 2012, before getting elected in 2017.

Hancock was the indy who got 104 in 2017 and Grange the one who got 69. Steve Alderman is nominated by Brian Bateman, who I think is the widower of the deceased councillor. Daphne Bush is former councillor for Pembroke St Marys South (2012-2017) and came second in the Pembroke St Marys North by-election last September. David Edwards was the Labour candidate in Pembroke St Marys North in 2017 and here in Hundleton in 2012. Jonathan Nutting is former independent councillor for Pembroke St Michael (2012-2017) who came third in the St Mary’s North by-election last year. The Conservative candidate stood as an independent in St Mary’s South in 2017, coming last out of 4, just behind Daphne Bush.

Current Council: Not affiliated 21; Ind Group 13; Con 11; Lab 7; PC 6; LD 1; 1 vacancy



SHETLAND UA; Lerwick South (Ind resigned)
Candidates:
FLAWS, Stephen (No Description)
HENDERSON, Caroline (Independent)
ROBINSON, Gary (Independent)
VALENTE, Frances (Independent)
WENGER, Arwed (Independent)

2017: Ind 429, 394, 299, 190, 180
2012: Ind 646, 319, 259, 229, 144, 58; SNP 119
Feb 08by: Ind 332, 233, 228, 183, 87, 63, 29; Con 169
2007: Ind 489, 473, 199, 127, 116, 97, 40; Con 159, SSP 150

Frances Valente was the one unsuccessful candidate in 2017, missing out by 3 votes after transfers.

Current Council: Ind 19; SNP 1; 2 vacancies



SHETLAND UA; Shetland Central (Ind resigned)
Candidates:
ADAMSON, Johan (No Description)
BUCHAN, Julie (Independent)
DOUGLAS, Stewart (SNP)
LAVERIE, Gordon (Independent)
LYALL, Moraig (No Description)

2017: Ind 320, 260, 191, 118, 84
2012: Ind 375, 267, 145, 143, 50; Christian 48
Dec 11by: Ind 332, 116, 107, 75, 27; Con 29
2007: Ind 330, 311, 257, 131, 98, 46, 23, 19

Julie Buchan was the 4th placed indy in 2017.

Current Council: Ind 19; SNP 1; 2 vacancies

[timrollpickering]

Oct 25, 2019 22:11:09 GMT Tony Otim said:

CROYDON LBC; Fairfield (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
EDWARDS, Jayde Tanisha (Conservative)
RENDLE, Andrew James (Liberal Democrat)
SAMUEL, Mark Robin Lionel (Independent)
SKIPPER, Caragh Louise (Labour)
SUTTON, Esther Mary (Green)
TWIDLE, Heather Jane (Women’s Equality Party)

2018: Lab 1351, 1329, 1226; Con 792, 753, 750; Grn 267, 266; LD 241, 209

Esther Sutton previously stood in the old Fairfield ward for the Greens back in 2010.

Current Council: Lab 40; Con 29; 1 vacancy

Repeating my post from another thread:

Oct 9, 2019 20:08:42 GMT timrollpickering said:

The ward covers the centre of Croydon itself, with the Brighton main line as its eastern boundary. East Croydon and West Croydon are both in the ward along with the central loop of Tramlink that connects them. It contains both shopping centres, Whitgift and Centrale, various local and national government offices and Croydon College. "Fair Field" was the historic site of a fair; the name is now used by both Fairfield Halls theatre & concert hall and the adjacent Fairfield Gardens

I remember being in A Place in Space one Thursday in the summer of 1999 (then on the other side of Church Street) when a tram on a test run shot past the front door. For once there was more science fiction outside the shop than inside.

[Tony Otim]

Oct 25, 2019 22:39:27 GMT timrollpickering said:

Oct 25, 2019 22:11:09 GMT Tony Otim said:

CROYDON LBC; Fairfield (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
EDWARDS, Jayde Tanisha (Conservative)
RENDLE, Andrew James (Liberal Democrat)
SAMUEL, Mark Robin Lionel (Independent)
SKIPPER, Caragh Louise (Labour)
SUTTON, Esther Mary (Green)
TWIDLE, Heather Jane (Women’s Equality Party)

2018: Lab 1351, 1329, 1226; Con 792, 753, 750; Grn 267, 266; LD 241, 209

Esther Sutton previously stood in the old Fairfield ward for the Greens back in 2010.

Current Council: Lab 40; Con 29; 1 vacancy

Repeating my post from another thread:

Oct 9, 2019 20:08:42 GMT timrollpickering said:

The ward covers the centre of Croydon itself, with the Brighton main line as its eastern boundary. East Croydon and West Croydon are both in the ward along with the central loop of Tramlink that connects them. It contains both shopping centres, Whitgift and Centrale, various local and national government offices and Croydon College. "Fair Field" was the historic site of a fair; the name is now used by both Fairfield Halls theatre & concert hall and the adjacent Fairfield Gardens

I remember being in A Place in Space one Thursday in the summer of 1999 (then on the other side of Church Street) when a tram on a test run shot past the front door. For once there was more science fiction outside the shop than inside.

How much was the ward affected by boundary changes last year?

[Robert Waller]

I am really looking forward to predicting the above ...

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 25, 2019 22:48:27 GMT Tony Otim said:

Oct 25, 2019 22:39:27 GMT timrollpickering said:

Repeating my post from another thread:

How much was the ward affected by boundary changes last year?

Heavily. It was basically split with the Park Hill & Whitgift ward being separated from the previous Fairfield ward which had always been Conservative but was becoming marginal. The single member PH & W ward returned a Conservative with a majority of nearly 500 suggesting the old ward would have been neck and neck in 2018 whereas on these boundaries it looks pretty safe for Labour.

[Tony Otim]

Oct 26, 2019 6:00:28 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Oct 25, 2019 22:48:27 GMT Tony Otim said:

How much was the ward affected by boundary changes last year?

Heavily. It was basically split with the Park Hill & Whitgift ward being separated from the previous Fairfield ward which had always been Conservative but was becoming marginal. The single member PH & W ward returned a Conservative with a majority of nearly 500 suggesting the old ward would have been neck and neck in 2018 whereas on these boundaries it looks pretty safe for Labour.

Thanks - I suspected something like that from the results.

[Pete Whitehead]

Davıd Boothroyd did some good analysis of the boundary changes here vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/10336/croydon?page=1

[John Chanin]

Oct 25, 2019 22:11:09 GMT Tony Otim said:

PEMBROKESHIRE UA; Hundleton (Ind died)
Candidates:
ALDERMAN, Steve (Independent)
BUSH, Daphne Margaret Bush (No Description)
EDWARDS, David William (Independent)
GRANGE, Barry Edward (Independent)
HAMMOND-WILLIAMS, Shirley Margaret (Liberal Democrats)
HANCOCK, Nicky (Independent)
NUTTING, Jonathan Anthony Robert (No Decsription)
STENSON, Tony (Independent)
TAYLOR, Jacob David (Conservative)

2017: Ind 334; Con 174; Ind 104, 69
2012: Ind 337, 297; Lab 120
2008: Ind unopp.
2004: Ind 469, 292

The deceased independent, Margot Bateman, was the runner up her in 2004 and 2012, before getting elected in 2017.

Hancock was the indy who got 104 in 2017 and Grange the one who got 69. Steve Alderman is nominated by Brian Bateman, who I think is the widower of the deceased councillor. Daphne Bush is former councillor for Pembroke St Marys South (2012-2017) and came second in the Pembroke St Marys North by-election last September. David Edwards was the Labour candidate in Pembroke St Marys North in 2017 and here in Hundleton in 2012. Jonathan Nutting is former independent councillor for Pembroke St Michael (2012-2017) who came third in the St Mary’s North by-election last year. The Conservative candidate stood as an independent in St Mary’s South in 2017, coming last out of 4, just behind Daphne Bush.

Current Council: Not affiliated 21; Ind Group 13; Con 11; Lab 7; PC 6; LD 1; 1 vacancy

I know this is a rural ward in the far SW, but this is totally insane.  I might even look at the prediction competition so I can jeer at those who get it totally wrong.

[finsobruce]

Oct 26, 2019 13:14:21 GMT John Chanin said:

Oct 25, 2019 22:11:09 GMT Tony Otim said:

PEMBROKESHIRE UA; Hundleton (Ind died)
Candidates:
ALDERMAN, Steve (Independent)
BUSH, Daphne Margaret Bush (No Description)
EDWARDS, David William (Independent)
GRANGE, Barry Edward (Independent)
HAMMOND-WILLIAMS, Shirley Margaret (Liberal Democrats)
HANCOCK, Nicky (Independent)
NUTTING, Jonathan Anthony Robert (No Decsription)
STENSON, Tony (Independent)
TAYLOR, Jacob David (Conservative)

2017: Ind 334; Con 174; Ind 104, 69
2012: Ind 337, 297; Lab 120
2008: Ind unopp.
2004: Ind 469, 292

The deceased independent, Margot Bateman, was the runner up her in 2004 and 2012, before getting elected in 2017.

Hancock was the indy who got 104 in 2017 and Grange the one who got 69. Steve Alderman is nominated by Brian Bateman, who I think is the widower of the deceased councillor. Daphne Bush is former councillor for Pembroke St Marys South (2012-2017) and came second in the Pembroke St Marys North by-election last September. David Edwards was the Labour candidate in Pembroke St Marys North in 2017 and here in Hundleton in 2012. Jonathan Nutting is former independent councillor for Pembroke St Michael (2012-2017) who came third in the St Mary’s North by-election last year. The Conservative candidate stood as an independent in St Mary’s South in 2017, coming last out of 4, just behind Daphne Bush.

Current Council: Not affiliated 21; Ind Group 13; Con 11; Lab 7; PC 6; LD 1; 1 vacancy

I know this is a rural ward in the far SW, but this is totally insane.  I might even look at the prediction competition so I can jeer at those who get it totally wrong.

This is brilliant. We should have a Forum trip down there by Charabanc.

[yellowperil]

Oct 26, 2019 13:24:21 GMT finsobruce said:

Oct 26, 2019 13:14:21 GMT John Chanin said:

I know this is a rural ward in the far SW, but this is totally insane.  I might even look at the prediction competition so I can jeer at those who get it totally wrong.

This is brilliant. We should have a Forum trip down there by Charabanc.

It is also of course not the first time we have been able to contemplate the possibility of a Councillor Alderman. Does everybody remember how that one turned out last time?

Oh and Ms Bush in the same contest -is she really Ms DM Bush Bush, or has the surname just got accidentally repeated? Or is all that part of that impossible website?

[gwynthegriff]

Oct 26, 2019 13:14:21 GMT John Chanin said:

Oct 25, 2019 22:11:09 GMT Tony Otim said:

PEMBROKESHIRE UA; Hundleton (Ind died)
Candidates:
ALDERMAN, Steve (Independent)
BUSH, Daphne Margaret Bush (No Description)
EDWARDS, David William (Independent)
GRANGE, Barry Edward (Independent)
HAMMOND-WILLIAMS, Shirley Margaret (Liberal Democrats)
HANCOCK, Nicky (Independent)
NUTTING, Jonathan Anthony Robert (No Decsription)
STENSON, Tony (Independent)
TAYLOR, Jacob David (Conservative)

2017: Ind 334; Con 174; Ind 104, 69
2012: Ind 337, 297; Lab 120
2008: Ind unopp.
2004: Ind 469, 292

The deceased independent, Margot Bateman, was the runner up her in 2004 and 2012, before getting elected in 2017.

Hancock was the indy who got 104 in 2017 and Grange the one who got 69. Steve Alderman is nominated by Brian Bateman, who I think is the widower of the deceased councillor. Daphne Bush is former councillor for Pembroke St Marys South (2012-2017) and came second in the Pembroke St Marys North by-election last September. David Edwards was the Labour candidate in Pembroke St Marys North in 2017 and here in Hundleton in 2012. Jonathan Nutting is former independent councillor for Pembroke St Michael (2012-2017) who came third in the St Mary’s North by-election last year. The Conservative candidate stood as an independent in St Mary’s South in 2017, coming last out of 4, just behind Daphne Bush.

Current Council: Not affiliated 21; Ind Group 13; Con 11; Lab 7; PC 6; LD 1; 1 vacancy

I know this is a rural ward in the far SW, but this is totally insane.  I might even look at the prediction competition so I can jeer at those who get it totally wrong.

I'm guessing it's south of the Landsker?

[yellowperil]

Oct 26, 2019 16:18:00 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Oct 26, 2019 13:14:21 GMT John Chanin said:

I know this is a rural ward in the far SW, but this is totally insane.  I might even look at the prediction competition so I can jeer at those who get it totally wrong.

I'm guessing it's south of the Landsker?

It's as far south as you can get in Pembs without landing in the sea

[evergreenadam]

Oct 26, 2019 16:00:48 GMT yellowperil said:

Oct 26, 2019 13:24:21 GMT finsobruce said:

This is brilliant. We should have a Forum trip down there by Charabanc.

It is also of course not the first time we have been able to contemplate the possibility of a Councillor Alderman. Does everybody remember how that one turned out last time?

Oh and Ms Bush in the same contest -is she really Ms DM Bush Bush, or has the surname just got accidentally repeated? Or is all that part of that impossible website?

Not to mention Shirley Williams in the event of a Lib Dem gain.

[ricmk]

Because I know how to have a good time on a Saturday, I've had a look around that Pembroke ward. Looks where you might go to properly get away from it all.

All those candidates live in the ward apart from BUSH, NUTTING and TAYLOR who live in Pembroke Town, around a couple of km outside the ward boundary - so this is a proper local by-election for local people.

[johnloony]

Oct 25, 2019 22:48:27 GMT Tony Otim said:

Oct 25, 2019 22:39:27 GMT timrollpickering said:

Repeating my post from another thread:

How much was the ward affected by boundary changes last year?

Very. The old Fairfield ward had probably the biggest variation of demography within any ward in Croydon. In the north-west bit are lots of multi-flat converted old homes, transient population, two big YMCA hostels, students, low turnouts. In the south-west bit are new downtown blocks of flats with probably lots of young renting people. But the new Fairfield also takes in a large chunk from what used to be Broad Green ward, which is one of the very safe Labour wards in Croydon North constituency. It wouldn't surprise me if almost all of Labour's lead in the new Fairfield is in that one polling district. The old Fairfield also lost a small bit in the south-East which went into South Croydon ward (what used to be called Croham).

The new Park Hill & Whitgift ward (where I live) used to be part of the old Fairfield. All three polling districts have a Conservative lead. The western bit has modest terraced housing with lots of old people. The eastern bit has big detached houses with long drives and gravel pathways, with lots of professional classes and rich Asian businesspeople. The ethnic mix of PH&W is about 50% white and 35% Asian, i.e. mostly Indian not Pakistani/Bangladeshi.

In 2018 the new Fairfield had a Laboir lead of 537 and PH&W had a Conservative lead of 492, but the old Fairfield would have had a Conservative lead of probably c.200.

P.S. My tallying from the count in 2018 suggests:
PHW1 (the north-west bit closest to the town centre) was about Con 279, Lab 248
PHW2 (the south-west bit a bit further away) was about Con 168, Lab 63
PHW3 (the posh bit in the east, with big detached houses) was about Con 318, Lab 95
which (by deduction) means the postal votes were about Con 345, Lab 212

My guess about the new Fairfield is that FFD1 probably had a Labour lead of c.300, FFD2 and FFD5 probably about Labour lead of 100 each, and FFD3 and 4 about Lab=Con level.

[johnloony]

Oct 25, 2019 22:11:09 GMT Tony Otim said:

CROYDON LBC; Fairfield (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
EDWARDS, Jayde Tanisha (Conservative)
RENDLE, Andrew James (Liberal Democrat)
SAMUEL, Mark Robin Lionel (Independent)
SKIPPER, Caragh Louise (Labour)
SUTTON, Esther Mary (Green)
TWIDLE, Heather Jane (Women’s Equality Party)

2018: Lab 1351, 1329, 1226; Con 792, 753, 750; Grn 267, 266; LD 241, 209

Andrew Rendle was Labour councillor for Ashburton 2014-18.
Mark Samuel is a veteran/serial independent candidate in Croydon South constituency and Croham ward, and will probably get a negligible number of votes.

[jacoblamsden]

The Conservative campaign in Fairfield is certainly very noisy - I've never seen so many people under the age of 30 out canvassing, let alone for the Conservatives! Interesting that our resident Croydonian doesn't think it will have any impact at all - which I suppose is reasonable considering flooding Barnet and Hillingdon with momentum activists in the London locals last year seemed to be counterproductive! I still think Mario Creatura has got a good chance of regaining Croydon Central at the next GE if the polls stay as they are though.

[johnloony]

Oct 27, 2019 19:22:28 GMT jacoblamsden said:

The Conservative campaign in Fairfield is certainly very noisy - I've never seen so many people under the age of 30 out canvassing, let alone for the Conservatives! Interesting that our resident Croydonian doesn't think it will have any impact at all - ...

On the contrary, I think that Jayde Edwards' campaign in Fairfield will have a very significant positive impact on the result, and her large gang of enthusiastic campaigners are to be encouraged. It is because of her campaign that I have factored in a significantly higher Conservative share of the vote, and a higher turnout, into my prediction. There is, factually and logically, absolutely no basis to substantiate your bizarre and absurd claim that I "don't think it will have any impact at all" because I never said or wrote any such thing.

[johnloony]

Oct 27, 2019 11:59:14 GMT johnloony said:

Oct 25, 2019 22:48:27 GMT Tony Otim said:

How much was the ward affected by boundary changes last year?

Very. The old Fairfield ward had probably the biggest variation of demography within any ward in Croydon. In the north-west bit are lots of multi-flat converted old homes, transient population, two big YMCA hostels, students, low turnouts. In the south-west bit are new downtown blocks of flats with probably lots of young renting people. But the new Fairfield also takes in a large chunk from what used to be Broad Green ward, which is one of the very safe Labour wards in Croydon North constituency. It wouldn't surprise me if almost all of Labour's lead in the new Fairfield is in that one polling district. The old Fairfield also lost a small bit in the south-East which went into South Croydon ward (what used to be called Croham).

For further clarity and elucidation, here is a map:



new Fairfield = A + B (marginal Labour)
new Park Hill & Whitgift = E (safe Conservative)

old Fairfield = B + C + D + E (marginal Conservative)

A is from the old Broad Green ward (very safe Labour)
C went to the new South Croydon ward (moderately Conservative)
D went to the new Addiscombe West ward (marginal)

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Jade seems to have a lot of charisma and passion. She'll go far.