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Post by bjornhattan on Nov 8, 2019 0:05:01 GMT
Croydon, Fairfield Labour 849 (40.8%) (-9.7%) Con...... 536 (25.7%) (-4.0%) LibDem 397 (19.1%) (+10.4%) Green 237 (11.4%) (+1.1%) W Eq P 40 (1.9%) Ind 23 (1.1%) which is disappointing. Although pointless to take too much from the Fairfield by-election with regards to the GE, but if those changes happened in Croydon Central from the 2017 result, who would win? Labour but with a halved majority. That said, you definitely can't extrapolate too much. Our campaign seems to have been very energetic with a great candidate, but equally this isn't one of the parts of the seat you'd expect to swing heavily (it's not got the Labour Leave vote that somewhere like New Addington has). |
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Post by johnloony on Nov 8, 2019 0:05:18 GMT
Croydon, Fairfield Labour 849 (40.8%) (-9.7%) Con...... 536 (25.7%) (-4.0%) LibDem 397 (19.1%) (+10.4%) Green 237 (11.4%) (+1.1%) W Eq P 40 (1.9%) Ind 23 (1.1%) which is disappointing. For what it's worth, the prediction which I made at the beginning of the campaign (my prediction was in numbers, not percentages) was: Lab 800 Con 650 LD 250 Grn 110 WEqP 30 Ind 10 but without Jayde Edwards' energetic campaign, my prediction would have been Lab 800 Con 500 |
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 8, 2019 0:05:20 GMT
Thanks for correcting my mistake, @barnabymarder. Must have conflated the two results
Twitter says the independent was an 'independent liberal'. Any substance to that?
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Post by johnloony on Nov 8, 2019 0:07:14 GMT
Croydon, Fairfield Labour 849 (40.8%) (-9.7%) Con...... 536 (25.7%) (-4.0%) LibDem 397 (19.1%) (+10.4%) Green 237 (11.4%) (+1.1%) W Eq P 40 (1.9%) Ind 23 (1.1%) which is disappointing. Although pointless to take too much from the Fairfield by-election with regards to the GE, but if those changes happened in Croydon Central from the 2017 result, who would win? Labour by a majority of about 2,400 |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 8, 2019 0:08:22 GMT
Thanks for correcting my mistake, @barnabymarder. Must have conflated the two results Twitter says the independent was an 'independent liberal'. Any substance to that? Not really. Mark Samuel is a perpetual candidate in Croydon politics who has idiosyncratic ideas - no more liberal than they are conservative. He has run under various labels including 'People's Choice' (which really merits prosecution under the Trades Descriptions Act as he regularly came bottom of the poll). |
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 8, 2019 0:08:46 GMT
Thanks for correcting my mistake, @barnabymarder . Must have conflated the two results Twitter says the independent was an 'independent liberal'. Any substance to that? Not really. Mark Samuel is a perpetual candidate in Croydon politics who has idiosyncratic ideas - no more liberal than they are conservative. He has run under various labels including 'People's Choice' (which really merits prosecution under the Trades Descriptions Act as he regularly came bottom of the poll). I meant Moorcroft, in Cornwall. |
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Post by phil156 on Nov 8, 2019 0:19:30 GMT
I've heard Pembrokeshire Ind win from Ind
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Post by evergreenadam on Nov 8, 2019 0:25:56 GMT
CORNWALL Wadebridge West MOORCROFT, Robin Edward (Independent) 552 MITCHELL, Philip (Conservative) 494 FLETCHER, Julia Elizabeth (Liberal Democrat) 250 PENNINGTON, Amanda Alice (Green) 123 HARRIS, Robyn Sara (No Description) 13 That is not good. Independent gain in Cornwall is not too much to get excited about. The Tory vote share fell too. |
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 8, 2019 0:27:55 GMT
Independent gain in Cornwall is not too much to get excited about. The Tory vote share fell too. On one level, I agree, especially if the winner was an independent liberal. On another, our activists should be busy getting out the vote here in the run up to the GE (though I suppose that goes for the Tories too). |
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 8, 2019 0:43:01 GMT
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 8, 2019 0:46:08 GMT
Alderman (Independent) 220 ELECTED ETHOLWYD
Bush Daphne Margaret Jane 58
Edwards (Independent / Annibynnol) David William 35
Grange (Independent) Barry Edward 25
Hammond-Williams (Welsh Liberal Democrats - Democratiaid Rhyddfrydol Cymru) Shirley Margaret 57
Hancock (Independent) Nicola Christina (Nicky) 46
Nutting Jonathan Anthony Robert 1
Stenson (Independent) Anthony (Tony) 37
Taylor (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate/Ymgeisydd Plaid Geidwadol Cymru) Jacob David 128
IND (Alderman): 36.2% (+36.2)
CON: 21.1% (-4.5)
IND (Bush): 9.6% (+9.6)
LDEM: 9.4% (+9.4)
IND (Hancock): 7.6% (-2.6)
IND (Stenson): 6.1% (+6.1)
IND (Edwards): 5.8% (+5.8)
IND (Grange): 4.1% (-11.2)
IND (Nutting): 0.2% (+0.2)
Somehow 0.2% sounds better than 1 vote ...
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Post by andrewp on Nov 8, 2019 7:30:31 GMT
I make the Labour vote share down by 10.2% in Fairfield and 6.5% in Wadebridge West. The Independent, intervening in Wadebridge West, has drawn nearly all his votes from the Lib Dem. The Lib Dem vote share is down by 31.6%. A little reassuring that it was the independent, tbh. Anything can happen in Cornish local elections. I would say after the Scottish highlands and West and mid Wales, Cornwall is one of the next most difficult areas to extrapolate local election results onto a general election. 4 out of the 5 candidates in this election are Town councillors in Wadebridge, so from a distance it was impossible to tell if one of those was very well known in the town, Ironically the winner was the 1 of the 5 who isn’t, but a quick google I think showed he was a retired policeman in the town and linked him to the town carnival and one or two other town organisations, so I certainly thought he would be in contention, |
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 8, 2019 7:32:21 GMT
Alderman (Independent) 220 ELECTED ETHOLWYD Bush Daphne Margaret Jane 58 Edwards (Independent / Annibynnol) David William 35 Grange (Independent) Barry Edward 25 Hammond-Williams (Welsh Liberal Democrats - Democratiaid Rhyddfrydol Cymru) Shirley Margaret 57 Hancock (Independent) Nicola Christina (Nicky) 46 Nutting Jonathan Anthony Robert 1 Stenson (Independent) Anthony (Tony) 37 Taylor (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate/Ymgeisydd Plaid Geidwadol Cymru) Jacob David 128 IND (Alderman): 36.2% (+36.2) CON: 21.1% (-4.5) IND (Bush): 9.6% (+9.6) LDEM: 9.4% (+9.4) IND (Hancock): 7.6% (-2.6) IND (Stenson): 6.1% (+6.1) IND (Edwards): 5.8% (+5.8) IND (Grange): 4.1% (-11.2) IND (Nutting): 0.2% (+0.2) Somehow 0.2% sounds better than 1 vote ... Better than nutting.... |
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Post by andrewp on Nov 8, 2019 7:41:08 GMT
Croydon, Fairfield Labour 849 (40.8%) (-9.7%) Con...... 536 (25.7%) (-4.0%) LibDem 397 (19.1%) (+10.4%) Green 237 (11.4%) (+1.1%) W Eq P 40 (1.9%) Ind 23 (1.1%) which is disappointing. Although pointless to take too much from the Fairfield by-election with regards to the GE, but if those changes happened in Croydon Central from the 2017 result, who would win? If I remember rightly, those changes are quite similar to the one London opinion poll we have had so far in this campaign, although obviously against a different baseline year. |
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Post by andrewp on Nov 8, 2019 7:56:31 GMT
The last London opinion poll suggested Tory gains in a number of London constituencies. The changes shown are from 2018, when I'm pretty sure Labour was doing better than in 2017. On the basis of this result unless I'm very much mistaken the Tories would only gain Kensington from Labour & no other seats in London, though Battersea would be very close. Labour would be in danger from the LDs in Bermondsey perhaps. Labour were about the same 2017 London shares Lab 43.7, Con 34.9, LD 7.7 2018 Lab 43.9 Con 28.8, LD 13.0 There is presumably quite a good chance that not many seats in London will change hands |
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Tony Otim
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Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 8, 2019 9:06:11 GMT
A little reassuring that it was the independent, tbh. Anything can happen in Cornish local elections. I would say after the Scottish highlands and West and mid Wales, Cornwall is one of the next most difficult areas to extrapolate local election results onto a general election. 4 out of the 5 candidates in this election are Town councillors in Wadebridge, so from a distance it was impossible to tell if one of those was very well known in the town, Ironically the winner was the 1 of the 5 who isn’t, but a quick google I think showed he was a retired policeman in the town and linked him to the town carnival and one or two other town organisations, so I certainly thought he would be in contention, I believe the winner is a former town councillor, although I may have picked that up wrong from a quick Google search... |
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 8, 2019 9:25:14 GMT
Independent gain in Cornwall is not too much to get excited about. The Tory vote share fell too.I don't think the Lib Dems should take too much consolation from that . A Tory fall of 2% is hardly comparable to a Lib Dem fall of 31%. There needs to be a thorough look at what went wrong here- purely local factors? organisational failures?candidate selection? or a reaction to the revoke agenda? Maybe all four? |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 8, 2019 9:33:01 GMT
Independent gain in Cornwall is not too much to get excited about. The Tory vote share fell too.I don't think the Lib Dems should take too much consolation from that . A Tory fall of 2% is hardly comparable to a Lib Dem fall of 31%. There needs to be a thorough look at what went wrong here- purely local factors? organisational failures?candidate selection? or a reaction to the revoke agenda? Maybe all four? Don't fret YP. It is a one-off local authority by-election in one of those nice areas where electors vote for actual people rather than on tribal or knee-jerk basis. It happens to all parties. You just happen to be currently less used to losing seats. |
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Post by alderman on Nov 8, 2019 9:40:30 GMT
I don't think the Lib Dems should take too much consolation from that . A Tory fall of 2% is hardly comparable to a Lib Dem fall of 31%. There needs to be a thorough look at what went wrong here- purely local factors? organisational failures?candidate selection? or a reaction to the revoke agenda? Maybe all four? Don't fret YP. It is a one-off local authority by-election in one of those nice areas where electors vote for actual people rather than on tribal or knee-jerk basis. It happens to all parties. You just happen to be currently less used to losing seats. Although a Town Councillor in Wadebridge, the Liberal Democrat candidate was a fairly recent import from London where she was a Councillor in the London Borough of Lewisham until 2014 |
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 8, 2019 9:43:35 GMT
I don't think the Lib Dems should take too much consolation from that . A Tory fall of 2% is hardly comparable to a Lib Dem fall of 31%. There needs to be a thorough look at what went wrong here- purely local factors? organisational failures?candidate selection? or a reaction to the revoke agenda? Maybe all four? Don't fret YP. It is a one-off local authority by-election in one of those nice areas where electors vote for actual people rather than on tribal or knee-jerk basis. It happens to all parties. You just happen to be currently less used to losing seats. I understand all that, but given the importance of the time this is no time for cosy complacency and a shrugged off so what. Of course also I perfectly understand that that is exactly what you hope for from us.This time we're serious. And yes I had wondered whether the "import from London " argument was a factor and whether either (a) there was some justification to the claim, or (b) sufficient attention had been paid to countering it. |
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