The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 4, 2019 11:24:55 GMT
Maybe those who're plotting to depose Jackson Carlaw will stop and think now. I think a single byelection result is unlikely to make much difference there, there are quite a few Scottish vacancies coming up as it happens. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Oct 4, 2019 11:50:38 GMT
Jackson Carlaw reacts.
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 4, 2019 11:57:43 GMT
"Only ScotTories can beat the SNP," accompanied by barchart! Are you sure he's really a Tory? |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 4, 2019 11:58:28 GMT
Those last 3 results Cardiff Con 36.4% (-4.5) Lab 28% (-10( PC 15.9% (+2.4) LD 13.9% (+6.3) Green 5.8% ( from nowhere) Essex Ind 36.9% (-4) Con 36.6% (+5.3) Holland 16.1% ( from nowhere) LD 4.2% (+2.4) Lab 3.3% (-6.3) Green 2.9% (+1.3) St Albans Lib Dem 68.8% (+4.9) Con 18.4% (+3.4) Lab 6.5% (-4) Green 6.3 (-4.3) Of the 5 results we know from yesterday Conservative share Up in 3 down in 2 Labour share down in 5 Lib Dem share up in 4 Green share up in 2, down in 2 All 5 show a 'Boothroyd' swing from Lab to Con I was going to make the same point.  |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 4, 2019 12:01:11 GMT
In wards with a large working population it's not unusual to find turnout still very low at 5pm but then ends up quite decent because they all vote in the evening. Our rule of thumb was that the mid-point was 4pm. 50% would vote in the first 8 hours; 50% in the last 5 hours. Varies by the nature of the ward of course. |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 4, 2019 12:19:44 GMT
Excellent result for the Scottish Tories. And a very poor one for the SNP. That is just plain ridiculous as a comment. The SNP held a seat, came a close second with a slight increase in vote share. It was not as 'good' a result in absolute terms as that for my party, but it was a good result for them. To say it was a poor result is absurd. To say it was a very poor result is inane. LDs had a poor result and Labour a very poor result for parties once contenders on the patch. Your party now ....that was a piss-poor result. |
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 4, 2019 12:24:18 GMT
yes, those figures look correct. Lib Dem and Tory split the Indy vote with SNP static. Labour down again.
In fact if you add up the Tory, LD, Lab and Indy first preferences in 2017 you get almost the same % as Tory + LD +Lab + others yesterday, which suggests very little shift between Unionist and Indy (a bit of Lab to Green, but I am not sure we can count Green votes as Indy in current circumstances. Probably in fact some switch from Lab to LD and everyone to Green)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 4, 2019 12:29:13 GMT
Last two Scottish by elections show very little change in SNP share
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Post by northbriton on Oct 4, 2019 12:54:00 GMT
Last two Scottish by elections show very little change in SNP share I think the results (particularly this one in Bridge of Don) shows that the assumption of widespread SNP gains in the event of a General Election may be off the mark. Tory vote looks very solid and I suspect where they broke though in 2017, particularly in NE, they may prove difficult to dislodge. Legacy of Ruth has been to establish SCons as main alternative to SNP and Unionists will cohere around them particularly where they have a sitting MP. The ones to watch are the six SLAB seats won in 2017 which remain v vulnerable. They could all very easily go back to SNP (East Lothian possibly to Tories). LibDems are safe as houses in the four they hold and likley to win NE Fife bringing them to 5. |
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 4, 2019 13:11:37 GMT
In wards with a large working population it's not unusual to find turnout still very low at 5pm but then ends up quite decent because they all vote in the evening. Our rule of thumb was that the mid-point was 4pm. 50% would vote in the first 8 hours; 50% in the last 5 hours. Varies by the nature of the ward of course. And 30% will already have voted by post.. |
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 4, 2019 13:17:40 GMT
Last two Scottish by elections show very little change in SNP share I think the results (particularly this one in Bridge of Don) shows that the assumption of widespread SNP gains in the event of a General Election may be off the mark. Tory vote looks very solid and I suspect where they broke though in 2017, particularly in NE, they may prove difficult to dislodge. Legacy of Ruth has been to establish SCons as main alternative to SNP and Unionists will cohere around them particularly where they have a sitting MP. The ones to watch are the six SLAB seats won in 2017 which remain v vulnerable. They could all very easily go back to SNP (East Lothian possibly to Tories). LibDems are safe as houses in the four they hold and likley to win NE Fife bringing them to 5. I agree the Labour seats look very vulnerable. However we need a Scottish poll not a local by-election since a lot of Scottish Tory seats are vulnerable to a small swing away from Tory to Lib Dem (letting SNP win) Polls in early Sept show a different picture |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 4, 2019 13:21:39 GMT
I wonder if here part of the story might be that the Conservatives were far more worried than the SNP about holding their seat and so put far more work in and therefore did much better at getting their vote out.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 4, 2019 13:44:27 GMT
Great result, I think Colin Clark is on track to increase his majority substantially.
The doom mongerers shouldn’t write off the Scottish Conservatives just yet!
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Post by robert1 on Oct 4, 2019 14:23:07 GMT
It is a pleasing and surprising result for the Tories particularly because the PVs landed on the day of the Supreme Court decision.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Oct 4, 2019 14:23:58 GMT
"Only ScotTories can beat the SNP," accompanied by barchart! Are you sure he's really a Tory? The SNP wouldn't be entirely unwise to use that tweet on their leaflets in Glasgow NE... |
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Post by northbriton on Oct 4, 2019 14:44:25 GMT
I think the results (particularly this one in Bridge of Don) shows that the assumption of widespread SNP gains in the event of a General Election may be off the mark. Tory vote looks very solid and I suspect where they broke though in 2017, particularly in NE, they may prove difficult to dislodge. Legacy of Ruth has been to establish SCons as main alternative to SNP and Unionists will cohere around them particularly where they have a sitting MP. The ones to watch are the six SLAB seats won in 2017 which remain v vulnerable. They could all very easily go back to SNP (East Lothian possibly to Tories). LibDems are safe as houses in the four they hold and likley to win NE Fife bringing them to 5. I agree the Labour seats look very vulnerable. However we need a Scottish poll not a local by-election since a lot of Scottish Tory seats are vulnerable to a small swing away from Tory to Lib Dem (letting SNP win) Polls in early Sept show a different picture True - but I think the overall polling figures are likely to mask variations from constituency to constituency. What do you think the 10,000 Tory voters in NE Fife, where the SNP MP has a majority of 2 over the LibDems, are likely to do? And that can work in the opposite direction as well (though not so much, admittedly). I think Tory incumbency will help a lot in persuading unionists. Nicola Sturgeon's apparent plan to make the GE all about IndyRef2 won't do any harm either. |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 4, 2019 14:52:00 GMT
I agree the Labour seats look very vulnerable. However we need a Scottish poll not a local by-election since a lot of Scottish Tory seats are vulnerable to a small swing away from Tory to Lib Dem (letting SNP win) Polls in early Sept show a different picture True - but I think the overall polling figures are likely to mask variations from constituency to constituency. What do you think the 10,000 Tory voters in NE Fife, where the SNP MP has a majority of 2 over the LibDems, are likely to do? And that can work in the opposite direction as well (though not so much, admittedly). I think Tory incumbency will help a lot in persuading unionists. Nicola Sturgeon's apparent plan to make the GE all about IndyRef2 won't do any harm either. I hope and suspect the vast majority will stand fast and that more will be attracted by recent events and for various reasons; not least that long term the LDs are a considerably greated threat to our seats (this most definitely being one of them) than the SNP is. |
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 4, 2019 15:28:37 GMT
True - but I think the overall polling figures are likely to mask variations from constituency to constituency. What do you think the 10,000 Tory voters in NE Fife, where the SNP MP has a majority of 2 over the LibDems, are likely to do? And that can work in the opposite direction as well (though not so much, admittedly). I think Tory incumbency will help a lot in persuading unionists. Nicola Sturgeon's apparent plan to make the GE all about IndyRef2 won't do any harm either. I hope and suspect the vast majority will stand fast and that more will be attracted by recent events and for various reasons; not least that long term the LDs are a considerably greated threat to our seats (this most definitely being one of them) than the SNP is. Given the fickle nature of the Scottish electorate over the last 10 years I am not sure the concept of "our seats" really applies to any set of voters |
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 4, 2019 15:33:36 GMT
I agree the Labour seats look very vulnerable. However we need a Scottish poll not a local by-election since a lot of Scottish Tory seats are vulnerable to a small swing away from Tory to Lib Dem (letting SNP win) Polls in early Sept show a different picture True - but I think the overall polling figures are likely to mask variations from constituency to constituency. What do you think the 10,000 Tory voters in NE Fife, where the SNP MP has a majority of 2 over the LibDems, are likely to do? And that can work in the opposite direction as well (though not so much, admittedly). I think Tory incumbency will help a lot in persuading unionists. Nicola Sturgeon's apparent plan to make the GE all about IndyRef2 won't do any harm either. Tactical voting does exist of course, but if the Lib Dem vote is up nationally in Scotland by 6-8%, it will be up to a greater or lesser extent in all constituencies (except one or two where it is far above average, and tactical unwinds could occur) |
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Post by tonygreaves on Oct 4, 2019 15:37:03 GMT
Excuses or no excuses, the consistent pattern in these elections is very clear. The Labour Party is for the moment completely buggered. "Oh - oh - ohhhhh - Jeremy Corbyn...". There is a slight CONference bounce but it's not all that much.
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