Local Council By-elections 3rd October 2019

[Tony Otim]

ABERDEEN UA; Bridge of Don (Double vacancy – Con & SNP resigned)
Candidates:
CLARKE, Philip (UKIP)
CROSS, Sarah (Conservative)
HARDIE, Sylvia (Green)
LAWRENCE, Graeme (Labour)
McKAY, Max (Red Party of Scotland)
McLEAN, Simon Paul (Independent)
MENNIE, Jessica (SNP)
SKOCZYKLODA, Michal Franciszek (Liberal Democrat)

2017: Con 1868; SNP 1610, 862; Ind 1045, 279, 70; Lab 805; LD 669; Sol 28
The ward was very slightly expanded in 2017, but although the area added was quite large, it looks mostly empty so probably not many additional voters
2012: Ind 1530, 107; SNP 1119, 520, 396; Lab 1031; LD 338; Con 333; Grn 97
2007: SNP 2805; Lab 1615; LD 1411, 731, 404; Con 610; Ind 146

Simon McLean was the Indy who got 70 votes in 2017. The Indy elected in 2012 and 2017 was the top Lib Dem elected in 2007.

Current Council: SNP 17; Con 10; Lab 9; Ind 3; LD 3; 3 vacancies



CARDIFF UA; Whitchurch & Tongwynlais (Con died)
Candidates:
ALLSOBROOK, Dan (Plaid Cymru)
DONNE, Sian Anne (Liberal Democrat)
GRIFFIN, David Peter (Green)
PALMER, Marc Alan (Labour)
REES, Mia Rhiannon (Conservative)

2017: Con 2905, 2900, 2856, 2753; Lab 2700, 2488, 2461, 2234; PC 962, 951, 885, 856; LD 540, 516, 365, 312
2012: Lab 2529, 2454, 2354, 2290; Con 2206, 2144, 2080, 2080; PC 641, 623, 600, 588; Grn 495; LD 265, 233, 226, 183
2008: Con 2948, 2904, 2857, 2790; Lab 2658, 2147, 2023, 1962; PC 771, 748, 715, 669; LD 505, 471, 398, 329; UKIP 398
2004: Con 2329, 2282, 2269, 2180; Lab 2266, 1956, 1799, 1631; LD 1060, 1039, 920, 905; PC 742, 724, 720, 711; Cardiff Citizens 481

The Labour and Plaid candidates were both the second placed candidates for their respective parties in 2017.

Current Council: Lab 39; Con 19; LD 11; PC 3; Fairwater Independent 1; Heath & Brichgrove Independent 1; 1 vacancy.



CHARNWOOD BC; Syston West (Con resigned)
Candidates:
BROWN, Sharon (Labour)
GERRARD, Sue (Conservative)
WISE, Matthew Robert (Green)

2019: Con 632, 610; Lab 316, 236; Grn 290
2015: Con 1916, 1541; Lab 899, 851;
2011: Con 1062, 964; Lab 684, 591
2007: Con 747, 742; Lab 498, 496; BNP 348
2003: Con 606, 526; Lab 376, 345; UKIP 132

The Green candidate stood here in May.

Current Council: Con 36; Lab 13; Grn 1; Ind 1; 1 vacancy



ESSEX CC; Clacton East (Ind resigned)
Candidates:
AMOS, Chris (Conservative)
ELY, Geoff (Labour)
KING, KT (Holland on Sea & Eastcliff Matters)
ROBERTSON, Callum (Liberal Democrat)
SOUTHALL, Chris (Green)
STEPHENSON, Mark (Independent)

2017: Ind 1906; Con 1458; UKIP 705; Lab 440; LD 82; Grn 74
Mar 16by: Holland-on-Sea Residents 1781; UKIP 961; Con 628; Lab 387; LD 49
2013: Tendring 1st 1528; Con 1194; UKIP 1106; Lab 477; LD 77; Grn 70
2009: Con 2270; Tendring 1st 1361; BNP 626; Lab 508; Grn 325; LD 238
2005: Con 4330; Lab 2427; LD 1206; Grn 263; Communities Representatives Party 207

Chris Amos stood here in 2017, he is also a district councillor for Burrsville ward on Tendring DC and was previously councillor for the old St John’s ward. Mark Stephenson was the UKIP candidate in 2017 and is now independent distict councillor for St John’s ward having previously been UKIP councillor for the old St Mary’s ward. KT King has been HOSRA councillor for St Bartholemew’s ward since 2007. The Conservative elected in 2005 was the Tendring 1st candidate in 2009 and 2013. The Residents by-election winner from 2016 was the indy elected in 2017.

Current Council: Con 53; Lab 6; LD 8; Independents 3; Canvey Island Independents 2; Grn 1; Independent Loughton Residents 1; 1 vacancy



ST ALBANS DC; Clarence (LD resigned)
Candidates:
CHAMBERS, Gary Christopher (Labour)
DEEPTHI, Don (Conservative)
MADOC, Josie (Liberal Democrat)
MICHEL, Rebecca (Green)

2019: LD 1521; Con 357; Grn 252; Lab 249
2018: LD 1370, Con 533; Lab 308; Grn 159
Oct 16by: LD 916; Con 388; Lab 193; Grn 98; UKIP 16
2016: LD 1178; Con 490; Lab 397; Grn 226; TUSC 23
2015: LD 1606; Con 1375; Lab 683; Grn 399; TUSC 28
2014: LD 764; Con 579; Lab 483; Grn 367; UKIP 145; TUSC 14
2012: LD 880; Con 494; Lab 383; Grn 312
2011: LD 1021; Con 899; Lab 551; Grn 267
2010: LD 1807; Con 1115; Lab 556; Grn 297
2008: LD 979; Con 629; Grn 237; Lab 211
2007: LD 1070; Con 433; Grn 255; Lab 229
2006: LD 918; Con 596; Lab 339; Grn 298
2004: LD 985; Con 514; Lab 416; Grn 180
2003: LD 1315; Lab 356; Con 343
2002: LD 1095; Lab 423; Con 331

The Conservative stood here in May.

Current Council: LD 24; Con 23; Lab 6; Ind 3; Grn 1; 1 vacancy



SOMERSET WEST & TAUNTON DC; Norton Fitzwarren & Staplegrove (Ind died)
Candidates:
DEBENHAM, Alan William (Green)
McGUFFIE, Michael Charles (Labour)
SULLY, Andy (Liberal Democrats)
WILLIAMS, Rod (Conservative)

2019: LD 929, 818; Ind 525; Grn 478; Con 448, 422, 373; Lab 195

The Green and Conservative candidates both stood here in May.

Current Council: LD 30; Ind 13; Con 9; Lab 3; Grn 2; 2 vacancies

[andrewp]

The Lib Dem candidate in Norton Fitzwarren and Staplegrove is an interesting one. Andy Sully was a former Lib Dem who defected to the Conservatives about 10 years ago, then served a term as a Conservative councillor from 2015-19, stood down in May. He then defected back to the Lib Dem’s on 26th July- i wonder if standing in this by election was part of the discussion.

[Deleted]

lm.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DpQ0JSQI688M%26feature%3Dshare%26fbclid%3DIwAR2DkLCcqhqt2_cZZnraPXuotVN9HBFXsfzuQnm30XZ8ZSvJD0aQZ6TtT3w&h=AT2WmX3umxx2Ei4z7fND7iJUAnI1uKpUryQO8rbHR8B3swBQmV67MhKFwVYbEx6yFrBhs1efqu8jyOCANUp-9o3gaIrbnxeBbk600BSKVMAumDohjtuZ_O7ryPRcca-Bk151evABK87e1pqhr73xVDitX6frJD9CHyzdQZqde-abEOYnd8wiAEWkqi-S-N2gUTjH8h6T51qo69didJ2xR7lUQUfTrKD1Lpc8Bry0LlwFhdXNykTu22Ux0ewUVp_837TxzQ4o53uPRA002PKXEKFe0XmylxjmYZ_aQNVSRCC-PxiYEJWbxFUMc68Yh0f6xHhdCarAc-iUrRnX2tqqFMjCy5d0RYPyTMaEf2PEgW1xeRHPWoPCZyfjDwD4gM2So_Mtl3dnBdsLgaEY245KHGW1LBB456ig-iTzrL5N917OruIqrwqxYSvp9kHfoYEYUkgvXL7SCA0YBSwT0HJFym64t6BwVhssUqJ0Q7MX015ns-s2TL8l-u-45ZNyqM94MjMHnPN5KExBf2QGqr9SsmSQfwwWIc9wY48C4DlR4GbJqCRDMBxi_SQW6yQY4d-QPPlrppG25_JqQQol_3LSAkGyc7jEuWl3iOmwj1LtR1o0BAwVnUYO7rDZCC6oF3Ra-CUvLuG7m3Tj

[Pete Whitehead]

Sept 18, 2019 11:53:08 GMT @priceofdawn said:

lm.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DpQ0JSQI688M%26feature%3Dshare%26fbclid%3DIwAR2DkLCcqhqt2_cZZnraPXuotVN9HBFXsfzuQnm30XZ8ZSvJD0aQZ6TtT3w&h=AT2WmX3umxx2Ei4z7fND7iJUAnI1uKpUryQO8rbHR8B3swBQmV67MhKFwVYbEx6yFrBhs1efqu8jyOCANUp-9o3gaIrbnxeBbk600BSKVMAumDohjtuZ_O7ryPRcca-Bk151evABK87e1pqhr73xVDitX6frJD9CHyzdQZqde-abEOYnd8wiAEWkqi-S-N2gUTjH8h6T51qo69didJ2xR7lUQUfTrKD1Lpc8Bry0LlwFhdXNykTu22Ux0ewUVp_837TxzQ4o53uPRA002PKXEKFe0XmylxjmYZ_aQNVSRCC-PxiYEJWbxFUMc68Yh0f6xHhdCarAc-iUrRnX2tqqFMjCy5d0RYPyTMaEf2PEgW1xeRHPWoPCZyfjDwD4gM2So_Mtl3dnBdsLgaEY245KHGW1LBB456ig-iTzrL5N917OruIqrwqxYSvp9kHfoYEYUkgvXL7SCA0YBSwT0HJFym64t6BwVhssUqJ0Q7MX015ns-s2TL8l-u-45ZNyqM94MjMHnPN5KExBf2QGqr9SsmSQfwwWIc9wY48C4DlR4GbJqCRDMBxi_SQW6yQY4d-QPPlrppG25_JqQQol_3LSAkGyc7jEuWl3iOmwj1LtR1o0BAwVnUYO7rDZCC6oF3Ra-CUvLuG7m3Tj

When he talks about 'traffic which speeds through Clarence Road', he shows traffic travelling on Hatfield Road (and not exactly speeding, as if there is ever much opportunity to do that there)

[Deleted]

Sept 18, 2019 12:33:37 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Sept 18, 2019 11:53:08 GMT @priceofdawn said:

lm.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DpQ0JSQI688M%26feature%3Dshare%26fbclid%3DIwAR2DkLCcqhqt2_cZZnraPXuotVN9HBFXsfzuQnm30XZ8ZSvJD0aQZ6TtT3w&h=AT2WmX3umxx2Ei4z7fND7iJUAnI1uKpUryQO8rbHR8B3swBQmV67MhKFwVYbEx6yFrBhs1efqu8jyOCANUp-9o3gaIrbnxeBbk600BSKVMAumDohjtuZ_O7ryPRcca-Bk151evABK87e1pqhr73xVDitX6frJD9CHyzdQZqde-abEOYnd8wiAEWkqi-S-N2gUTjH8h6T51qo69didJ2xR7lUQUfTrKD1Lpc8Bry0LlwFhdXNykTu22Ux0ewUVp_837TxzQ4o53uPRA002PKXEKFe0XmylxjmYZ_aQNVSRCC-PxiYEJWbxFUMc68Yh0f6xHhdCarAc-iUrRnX2tqqFMjCy5d0RYPyTMaEf2PEgW1xeRHPWoPCZyfjDwD4gM2So_Mtl3dnBdsLgaEY245KHGW1LBB456ig-iTzrL5N917OruIqrwqxYSvp9kHfoYEYUkgvXL7SCA0YBSwT0HJFym64t6BwVhssUqJ0Q7MX015ns-s2TL8l-u-45ZNyqM94MjMHnPN5KExBf2QGqr9SsmSQfwwWIc9wY48C4DlR4GbJqCRDMBxi_SQW6yQY4d-QPPlrppG25_JqQQol_3LSAkGyc7jEuWl3iOmwj1LtR1o0BAwVnUYO7rDZCC6oF3Ra-CUvLuG7m3Tj

When he talks about 'traffic which speeds through Clarence Road', he shows traffic travelling on Hatfield Road (and not exactly speeding, as if there is ever much opportunity to do that there)

it is a bit of an issue on the dootstep in Clarence in a wsy I've no had in other places. I had voters on Brampton Road asking for 20mph limits and voters on Beaumont Avenue asking for speed bumps

[Pete Whitehead]

Sept 18, 2019 12:37:06 GMT @priceofdawn said:

Sept 18, 2019 12:33:37 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

When he talks about 'traffic which speeds through Clarence Road', he shows traffic travelling on Hatfield Road (and not exactly speeding, as if there is ever much opportunity to do that there)

it is a bit of an issue on the dootstep in Clarence in a wsy I've no had in other places. I had voters on Brampton Road asking for 20mph limits and voters on Beaumont Avenue asking for speed bumps

Yeah I can imagine it can be an issue on those roads because they'd be used as rat-runs, but the point is he is showing traffic (not speeding) on Hatfield Road. The volume of traffic is much lower on those other roads (which obviously facilitates speeding)

[Pete Whitehead]

I reproduce here a ward profile I wrote ahead of the May elections

Feb 7, 2019 20:29:57 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Clarence is in fact the only one of the eight wards in the core city to have been represented by a single party throughout this century. Indeed, it has not been won by a party other than the Lib Dems for over 30 years (the Conservatives last won here in 1988 and Labour have never come close).

There are three fairly distinct areas here. Firstly, the area West of the railway and towards the city centre. This is for the most part a very well-off inner-urban area consisting mostly of attractive villadom. There is a small council estate and some odd new housing on the old Oaklands College site but some very substantial detached houses in such as Avenue Road and Lemsford Road. Immediately to the East of the railway lies Clarence Park, in the geographical centre of the ward which lends its name to the ward and which is surrounded by similarly pleasant late Victorian villas.

Moving further East and covering the South of the ward is the heart of Fleetville. Largely due to the presence of the city’s mosque and various ethnic food shops, this has a feel/reputation as the centre of the Asian community in St Albans (mostly Bangladeshi here) but actually Clarence ward overall has a lower than average proportion of Asians and of Muslims and these demographics are more a feature of Ashley ward to the south (amongst others). Certainly, there are some Asians in the terraced streets which run North of Hatfield road but more typical are the types who patronise the bicycle shops, vaping shops and other hipster type emporiums in the area. This is the kind of area that BBC and Guardian journalists like to live in because it’s ‘vibrant’. The headquarters of CAMRA is located here which says it all, I think.
@priceofdawn comes from this area (I hope he doesn’t mind me saying so and that this doesn’t constitute ‘doxing’) and both he and his sister have been Labour candidates for this ward. The Fleetville end of the ward would certainly be the best source of Labour (and Green) support – there are also some inter-war council flats at the far end of Hatfield Road.

Brampton Road running through the centre of the ward, marks a watershed between the terraced area of Fleetville and a much wealthier and more suburban area which covers the Northern and Eastern section of the ward. The divide is even visible as between the North and South sides of Brampton Road. This part of the ward mostly consists of detached housing built in the 1920s or earlier and the houses seem to get bigger the further one travels from Brampton Road towards Sandpit Lane which forms the northern boundary of this ward.
As a whole this is a very high-status ward and a very desirable area to live. The proximity to the station creates even more upward pressure on the massive house prices in this area. It is in the top 100 wards nationally for those employed in higher managerial and professional occupations and is ranked 22nd nationally for graduates (62.5%). If you’re looking for the ‘Liberal elite’, this is where they live.

[andrew111]

Sept 18, 2019 12:44:31 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Sept 18, 2019 12:37:06 GMT @priceofdawn said:

it is a bit of an issue on the dootstep in Clarence in a wsy I've no had in other places. I had voters on Brampton Road asking for 20mph limits and voters on Beaumont Avenue asking for speed bumps

Yeah I can imagine it can be an issue on those roads because they'd be used as rat-runs, but the point is he is showing traffic (not speeding) on Hatfield Road. The volume of traffic is much lower on those other roads (which obviously facilitates speeding)

Video seems to have been taken down..

[tonygreaves]

The Aberdeen by-election is interesting as an STV election for 2 seats - is this the first such occurrence? Also interesting that there are seven parties standing (plus an Indy) and each one only fields one candidate for the two vacancies. (For obvious reasons but still feels odd!) Overall there is an average of five candidates for each of these six elections. The less powers Councils have, the more people seem to want to stand for them!

[Tony Otim]

Sept 25, 2019 15:34:35 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

"Red Party of Scotland"?

Another pro-indy socialist party, see also SSP, Solidarity and others...

[owainsutton]

I don't think I'm giving any secret away at this stage by saying the Greens are aiming to take the Charnwood seat.

[andrew111]

Sept 25, 2019 19:51:28 GMT owainsutton said:

I don't think I'm giving any secret away at this stage by saying the Greens are aiming to take the Charnwood seat.

Is anyone trying to stop them?

You need to steal some Tory votes

[owainsutton]

No such thing as stealing votes, only earning them.

[Chris from Brum]

Sept 25, 2019 19:51:28 GMT owainsutton said:

I don't think I'm giving any secret away at this stage by saying the Greens are aiming to take the Charnwood seat.

And it's just as much of a secret that we're not.  In fact we don't seem to have stood here even during our best years, no idea why.

[owainsutton]

Sept 26, 2019 12:48:38 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Sept 25, 2019 19:51:28 GMT owainsutton said:

I don't think I'm giving any secret away at this stage by saying the Greens are aiming to take the Charnwood seat.

And it's just as much of a secret that we're not.  In fact we don't seem to have stood here even during our best years, no idea why.

The Lib Dems even didn't have a candidate in another Charnwood by-election last December, for a seat they'd been holding.

[timrollpickering]

Sept 13, 2019 22:11:39 GMT Tony Otim said:

ABERDEEN UA; Bridge of Don (Double vacancy – Con & SNP resigned)

This is presumably named for the suburb. Only half of the actual bridge is in the ward.

ESSEX CC; Clacton East (Ind resigned)
Candidates:
AMOS, Chris (Conservative)
ELY, Geoff (Labour)
KING, KT (Holland on Sea & Eastcliff Matters)
ROBERTSON, Callum (Liberal Democrat)
SOUTHALL, Chris (Green)
STEPHENSON, Mark (Independent)

Does Stephenson have any political relationship to the outgoing Independent?

Sept 23, 2019 19:46:35 GMT tonygreaves said:

The Aberdeen by-election is interesting as an STV election for 2 seats - is this the first such occurrence?

ISTR at least one previous such by-election has been covered in these columns.

Also interesting that there are seven parties standing (plus an Indy) and each one only fields one candidate for the two vacancies. (For obvious reasons but still feels odd!)

Which speaks volumes against some of the traditional arguments for STV. Parties that promote it because of "candidate choice" frankly should be standing more candidates to give the voters what they preach.

[Chris from Brum]

Sept 26, 2019 12:56:16 GMT owainsutton said:

Sept 26, 2019 12:48:38 GMT Chris from Brum said:

And it's just as much of a secret that we're not.  In fact we don't seem to have stood here even during our best years, no idea why.

The Lib Dems even didn't have a candidate in another Charnwood by-election last December, for a seat they'd been holding.

I know, that was even more regrettable.  It's not as though we don't have some strength in Leicestershire as a whole, so why is Charnwood a black hole?

[Tony Otim]

This has been covered elsewhere, but there have been 2 previous double by-elections under STV - Leith Walk in Edinburgh in September 2015 and Huntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford in Aberdeenshire in November 2015.

[mattb]

Sept 26, 2019 13:10:35 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Sept 26, 2019 12:56:16 GMT owainsutton said:

The Lib Dems even didn't have a candidate in another Charnwood by-election last December, for a seat they'd been holding.

I know, that was even more regrettable.  It's not as though we don't have some strength in Leicestershire as a whole, so why is Charnwood a black hole?

Yes - especially the Leicester suburbs bit - we are strong in pretty-much all the other places adjacent to the city.

[Pete Whitehead]

Sept 26, 2019 19:30:01 GMT mattb said:

Sept 26, 2019 13:10:35 GMT Chris from Brum said:

I know, that was even more regrettable.  It's not as though we don't have some strength in Leicestershire as a whole, so why is Charnwood a black hole?

Yes - especially the Leicester suburbs bit - we are strong in pretty-much all the other places adjacent to the city.

Used to be very strong in Birstall (in Charnwood borough) as well, but not anymore