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Post by timrollpickering on Oct 4, 2019 1:54:40 GMT
Just a general query, what is the generally accepted method of calculating " + or - " vote share when the previous Election, was for two or more Councillors, as the Cardiff Whitchurch election was previously, against the new result which is only for one seat ? Many thanks ... There isn't one universally accepted method. There are, instead, two different ways to calculate it. One is to compare with the top vote from each party at the last election. The other is to compare with the average* vote from each party at the last election. A third method is to divide the total by the number of vacancies. This is similar to the average method but avoids problems of working out which independents and incomplete slate parties were in harness and you don't get odd results with parties getting more average votes than voters took part. |
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Post by gasman2019 on Oct 4, 2019 5:26:36 GMT
Awful set of election results for Labour.
Good for us and the Lib Dems. Get the feeling the voters are not very enthusiastic about the current Labour party or leadership.
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 4, 2019 6:16:26 GMT
Feel free to make observations, but from what I can see, Labour's vote share has gone substantially backwards in each seat they've stood tonight, and that in the week after their Conference, which has traditionally seen an up-tick in polling ... Whitchurch U.A. 28% ( -9.9% ), Clacton 3.3% ( -6.1% ), St.Albans 6.5% ( -4.0% ), Somerset West & Taunton 2.4% ( -5.2% ) .... for some reason you left off Charnwood 12.5 (-13%), which doesn't exactly weaken the point you are making! |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 4, 2019 6:38:24 GMT
Ive not heard of by election boost after conference. I'm sure some one will dig up every by election after conference to see if there's a correlation. There was that gain in luton in the aftermath of conference last week though
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 4, 2019 6:57:05 GMT
Those last 3 results
Cardiff
Con 36.4% (-4.5)
Lab 28% (-10(
PC 15.9% (+2.4)
LD 13.9% (+6.3)
Green 5.8% ( from nowhere)
Essex
Ind 36.9% (-4)
Con 36.6% (+5.3)
Holland 16.1% ( from nowhere)
LD 4.2% (+2.4)
Lab 3.3% (-6.3)
Green 2.9% (+1.3)
St Albans
Lib Dem 68.8% (+4.9)
Con 18.4% (+3.4)
Lab 6.5% (-4)
Green 6.3 (-4.3)
Of the 5 results we know from yesterday
Conservative share Up in 3 down in 2
Labour share down in 5
Lib Dem share up in 4
Green share up in 2, down in 2
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 4, 2019 6:58:43 GMT
Ive not heard of by election boost after conference. I'm sure some one will dig up every by election after conference to see if there's a correlation. There was that gain in luton in the aftermath of conference last week though I think there is a slight correlation but sometimes it’s just the luck of which election comes up which week. I think you would have gained the Luton seat had it been this week as well! |
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Post by mattb on Oct 4, 2019 7:13:23 GMT
Those last 3 results Cardiff Con 36.4% (-4.5) Lab 28% (-10( PC 15.9% (+2.4) LD 13.9% (+6.3) Green 5.8% ( from nowhere) Essex Ind 36.9% (-4) Con 36.6% (+5.3) Holland 16.1% ( from nowhere) LD 4.2% (+2.4) Lab 3.3% (-6.3) Green 2.9% (+1.3) St Albans Lib Dem 68.8% (+4.9) Con 18.4% (+3.4) Lab 6.5% (-4) Green 6.3 (-4.3) Of the 5 results we know from yesterday Conservative share Up in 3 down in 2 Labour share down in 5 Lib Dem share up in 4 Green share up in 2, down in 2 All 5 show a 'Boothroyd' swing from Lab to Con |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 4, 2019 7:20:16 GMT
Those last 3 results Cardiff Con 36.4% (-4.5) Lab 28% (-10( PC 15.9% (+2.4) LD 13.9% (+6.3) Green 5.8% ( from nowhere) Essex Ind 36.9% (-4) Con 36.6% (+5.3) Holland 16.1% ( from nowhere) LD 4.2% (+2.4) Lab 3.3% (-6.3) Green 2.9% (+1.3) St Albans Lib Dem 68.8% (+4.9) Con 18.4% (+3.4) Lab 6.5% (-4) Green 6.3 (-4.3) Of the 5 results we know from yesterday Conservative share Up in 3 down in 2 Labour share down in 5 Lib Dem share up in 4 Green share up in 2, down in 2 All 5 show a 'Boothroyd' swing from Lab to Con There was of course a good reason why the LibDem vote was up in only 4 of the 5 seats. It was up in all seats where they had a candidate. I am pretty sure it would have been up in Charnwood too- anything above 0 would have been an improvement. |
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pl
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Post by pl on Oct 4, 2019 7:47:22 GMT
Whitchurch and Tongwynlais turnout 33.77% (4,251 votes). So 6 hours ago Plaid were claiming turnout was "extremely low". Or did they just mean their own turnout was... Rookie mistake territory I imagine. Look at polling station turnout of c15-20% and forget to add the chunky number of postal votes on top. I’ve lost count of the number of candidates I’ve had to explain this to. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 4, 2019 8:01:13 GMT
In wards with a large working population it's not unusual to find turnout still very low at 5pm but then ends up quite decent because they all vote in the evening.
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 4, 2019 8:18:38 GMT
For a party 10-years into a nightmare, with no majority, fracturing HOC support, assailed by a sea of troubles, and virtually everyone against us, including factions on what had been 'our side'; those results last night were really rather good, even though one was so close as to be a signal disappointment.
What it must be to be the opposition with every reason to expect a massive surge of support and a brimming confidence; to see such a shattering set of awful dross results. Truly Labour are now the party of Immigrants communities and failing parts of cities and not much else.
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pl
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Post by pl on Oct 4, 2019 8:21:12 GMT
In wards with a large working population it's not unusual to find turnout still very low at 5pm but then ends up quite decent because they all vote in the evening. Indeed - the 2008 London Mayoral election particularly sticks in my memory. The 9-10pm turnout at my polling station was huge - there seemed to be a fleet of black cabs dropping city workers at the polling station - they were desperate to vote! I remember dispatching a knocker up to a bus stop to direct people getting off the bus to vote! |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 4, 2019 8:23:45 GMT
In wards with a large working population it's not unusual to find turnout still very low at 5pm but then ends up quite decent because they all vote in the evening. Yes I imagine in the Cardiff case it was the combination of that factor and a substantial postal vote, meaning we might well get to teatime with less than 10% of the total electorate having voted on the day. Don't know whether the PC shout was genuine rookie ignorance of how these elections work, as pl suggests, or whether it was a desperate ploy to get anyone to come out. Maybe a bit of both. I imagine we all have experienced that sense of frustration at low turnouts at that point in the evening. |
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Post by owainsutton on Oct 4, 2019 8:43:50 GMT
So 6 hours ago Plaid were claiming turnout was "extremely low". Or did they just mean their own turnout was... Rookie mistake territory I imagine. Look at polling station turnout of c15-20% and forget to add the chunky number of postal votes on top. I’ve lost count of the number of candidates I’ve had to explain this to. Postal votes also being why it's very unlikely anyone could credibly demonstrate any tendency for a 'conference bounce' among past results. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Oct 4, 2019 9:33:48 GMT
Aberdeen council Twitter suggesting that counting would begin about 10am and the result posted on the council website from about noon.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 4, 2019 9:34:09 GMT
Feel free to make observations, but from what I can see, Labour's vote share has gone substantially backwards in each seat they've stood tonight, and that in the week after their Conference, which has traditionally seen an up-tick in polling ... Whitchurch U.A. 28% ( -9.9% ), Clacton 3.3% ( -6.1% ), St.Albans 6.5% ( -4.0% ), Somerset West & Taunton 2.4% ( -5.2% ) .... Not quite, the "boost" usually happens in conference week (not the one after) So this time it was the Tories "turn". |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 4, 2019 9:35:46 GMT
Aberdeen council Twitter suggesting that counting would begin about 10am and the result posted on the council website from about noon. They are using an electronic count. Reporters there have been told the result (which might affect the council administration) will be known at about noon. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 4, 2019 9:37:12 GMT
Feel free to make observations, but from what I can see, Labour's vote share has gone substantially backwards in each seat they've stood tonight, and that in the week after their Conference, which has traditionally seen an up-tick in polling ... Whitchurch U.A. 28% ( -9.9% ), Clacton 3.3% ( -6.1% ), St.Albans 6.5% ( -4.0% ), Somerset West & Taunton 2.4% ( -5.2% ) .... Not quite, the "boost" usually happens in conference week (not the one after) So this time it was the Tories "turn". The only one of those that I think was really disappointing for Labour, and indeed the only one in a key parliamentary constituency for Labour, was Cardiff. I expected that to be at least close. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 4, 2019 9:46:22 GMT
Not quite, the "boost" usually happens in conference week (not the one after) So this time it was the Tories "turn". The only one of those that I think was really disappointing for Labour, and indeed the only one in a key parliamentary constituency for Labour, was Cardiff. I expected that to be at least close. Cardiff was the only seat where we realistically had a chance, LibDems squeezing us in byelection conditions for no-hope seats isn't new or news. They always make a point of appealing to Labour voters to "lend" their support in those circumstances - and afterwards crow how awful our result was  |
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Oct 4, 2019 9:49:09 GMT
The only one of those that I think was really disappointing for Labour, and indeed the only one in a key parliamentary constituency for Labour, was Cardiff. I expected that to be at least close. Cardiff was the only seat where we realistically had a chance, LibDems squeezing us in byelection conditions for no-hope seats isn't new or news. They always make a point of appealing to Labour voters to "lend" their support in those circumstances - and afterwards crow how awful our result was I thought the point of politics was to always try and get people who didn't previously vote for you, or "lend" their support?  |
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