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Post by yellowperil on Oct 3, 2019 22:31:16 GMT
SOMERSET WEST AND TAUNTON Norton Fitzwarren and Staplegrove SULLY, Andy (Liberal Democrats) 686 WILLIAMS, Rod (Conservative) 493 DEBENHAM, Alan William (Green) 67 McGUFFIE, Michael Charles (Labour) 31 "It's a two horse race". But over half the vote for a gain is nice. I must say I thought the Green might do rather better than that, in a situation where the LD candidate had been a Tory councillor until so recently. Tory recovery, somewhat from the absolute hiding in May? |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 3, 2019 22:34:59 GMT
"It's a two horse race". But over half the vote for a gain is nice. I must say I thought the Green might do rather better than that, in a situation where the LD candidate had been a Tory councillor until so recently. Tory recovery, somewhat from the absolute hiding in May? I think the Green vote in May was very inflated by the Lib Dem’s only having 2 candidates for a 3 member ward. So I expected the Greens to fall back. A better Tory result than the other Taunton by election 2 weeks ago. The Tory candidate is the county councillor for the Staplegrove half of the Ward so he might have been known a bit too. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 3, 2019 22:37:45 GMT
That’s a bit better Conservative result than the other Taunton by election 2 weeks ago. Swing is not very meaningful . The big Green vote in May was obviously due to the lack of a Lib Dem full slate. The Tory vote in May was lower partly due to having an Independent ex Tory standing Lib Dem 53.7% (+17.6) Con 38.6% (+21.2) Green 5.2% (-13.4) Lab 2.4% (-5.2) And of course, as has been said the Lib Dem winner was the Conservative councillor for the ward until May 13.2% swing Labour to Conservative.  |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 3, 2019 22:45:43 GMT
The common factor on these first two results in, okay, pretty infavouable conditons, is a catastrophically weak Labour showing, Interesting to see if that looks any different , say in Cardiff and eventually Aberdeen.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 3, 2019 22:49:21 GMT
CARDIFF Whitchurch and Tongwynlais
REES, Mia Rhiannon (Conservative) 1,544
PALMER, Marc Alan (Labour) 1,190
ALLSOBROOK, Dan (Plaid Cymru) 674
DONNE, Sian Anne (Liberal Democrat) 588
GRIFFIN, David Peter (Green) 248
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 3, 2019 23:00:35 GMT
CARDIFF Whitchurch and Tongwynlais REES, Mia Rhiannon (Conservative) 1,544 PALMER, Marc Alan (Labour) 1,190 ALLSOBROOK, Dan (Plaid Cymru) 674 DONNE, Sian Anne (Liberal Democrat) 588 GRIFFIN, David Peter (Green) 248 Well not perhaps a disaster for Labour but I would still think they would still find that disappointing. After all a couple of our usually very well informed predicters over on the other thread had thought this could be a Lab win... |
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 3, 2019 23:11:07 GMT
CARDIFF Whitchurch and Tongwynlais REES, Mia Rhiannon (Conservative) 1,544 PALMER, Marc Alan (Labour) 1,190 ALLSOBROOK, Dan (Plaid Cymru) 674 DONNE, Sian Anne (Liberal Democrat) 588 GRIFFIN, David Peter (Green) 248 Well not perhaps a disaster for Labour but I would still think they would still find that disappointing. After all a couple of our usually very well informed predicters over on the other thread had thought this could be a Lab win... Lib dems the only Party to increase their vote. Plaid will be disappointed after a bit of ramping |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 3, 2019 23:14:51 GMT
ESSEX Clacton East
STEPHENSON, Mark (Independent) 1,231
AMOS, Chris (Conservative) 1,223
KING, KT (Holland on Sea & Eastcliff Matters) 537
ROBERTSON, Callum (Liberal Democrat) 140
ELY, Geoff (Labour) 111
SOUTHALL, Chris (Green) 97
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Post by ideal4radio on Oct 3, 2019 23:22:07 GMT
ESSEX Clacton East STEPHENSON, Mark (Independent) 1,231 AMOS, Chris (Conservative) 1,223 KING, KT (Holland on Sea & Eastcliff Matters) 537 ROBERTSON, Callum (Liberal Democrat) 140 ELY, Geoff (Labour) 111 SOUTHALL, Chris (Green) 97 By my calculation, Labour down from 9.4% in 2017, to 3.3% ..... |
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 3, 2019 23:31:27 GMT
ESSEX Clacton East STEPHENSON, Mark (Independent) 1,231 AMOS, Chris (Conservative) 1,223 KING, KT (Holland on Sea & Eastcliff Matters) 537 ROBERTSON, Callum (Liberal Democrat) 140 ELY, Geoff (Labour) 111 SOUTHALL, Chris (Green) 97 By my calculation, Labour down from 9.4% in 2017, to 3.3% ..... Lib Dems, Greens and lab harvest all 348 Remainers in Clacton East? |
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Post by phil156 on Oct 3, 2019 23:33:17 GMT
Hurry up At Alban's then we can go to bed
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 3, 2019 23:33:34 GMT
ESSEX Clacton East STEPHENSON, Mark (Independent) 1,231 AMOS, Chris (Conservative) 1,223 KING, KT (Holland on Sea & Eastcliff Matters) 537 ROBERTSON, Callum (Liberal Democrat) 140 ELY, Geoff (Labour) 111 SOUTHALL, Chris (Green) 97 By my calculation, Labour down from 9.4% in 2017, to 3.3% ..... Whereas the Lib Dems have roughly doubled their vote in a ward which is just about as unfavourable for them as you could possibly dream up.. |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 3, 2019 23:35:31 GMT
Hurry up At Alban's then we can go to bed At Alban's? You really are ready for bed  |
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Post by phil156 on Oct 3, 2019 23:36:43 GMT
Hurry up At Alban's then we can go to bed At Alban's? You really are ready for bed |
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Post by BucksDucks on Oct 3, 2019 23:44:56 GMT
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Post by phil156 on Oct 3, 2019 23:47:24 GMT
Think I will go to bed as Clarence -St. Alban's is rather slow to say the least
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Post by ideal4radio on Oct 4, 2019 0:19:36 GMT
Just a general query, what is the generally accepted method of calculating " + or - " vote share when the previous Election, was for two or more Councillors, as the Cardiff Whitchurch election was previously, against the new result which is only for one seat ? Many thanks ...
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Post by greenchristian on Oct 4, 2019 0:25:19 GMT
Just a general query, what is the generally accepted method of calculating " + or - " vote share when the previous Election, was for two or more Councillors, as the Cardiff Whitchurch election was previously, against the new result which is only for one seat ? Many thanks ... There isn't one universally accepted method. There are, instead, two different ways to calculate it.
One is to compare with the top vote from each party at the last election.
The other is to compare with the average* vote from each party at the last election.
The sadly absent middleenglander always gave us both figures in his weekly tables.
*That's the mean, rather than the median or the mode
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Post by ideal4radio on Oct 4, 2019 0:37:26 GMT
Just a general query, what is the generally accepted method of calculating " + or - " vote share when the previous Election, was for two or more Councillors, as the Cardiff Whitchurch election was previously, against the new result which is only for one seat ? Many thanks ... There isn't one universally accepted method. There are, instead, two different ways to calculate it.
One is to compare with the top vote from each party at the last election.
The other is to compare with the average* vote from each party at the last election.
The sadly absent middleenglander always gave us both figures in his weekly tables.
*That's the mean, rather than the median or the mode
Many thanks, I appreciate that ! |
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Post by ideal4radio on Oct 4, 2019 0:51:10 GMT
Feel free to make observations, but from what I can see, Labour's vote share has gone substantially backwards in each seat they've stood tonight, and that in the week after their Conference, which has traditionally seen an up-tick in polling ...
Whitchurch U.A. 28% ( -9.9% ), Clacton 3.3% ( -6.1% ), St.Albans 6.5% ( -4.0% ), Somerset West & Taunton 2.4% ( -5.2% ) ....
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