andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 4, 2019 9:51:52 GMT
The only one of those that I think was really disappointing for Labour, and indeed the only one in a key parliamentary constituency for Labour, was Cardiff. I expected that to be at least close. Cardiff was the only seat where we realistically had a chance, LibDems squeezing us in byelection conditions for no-hope seats isn't new or news. They always make a point of appealing to Labour voters to "lend" their support in those circumstances - and afterwards crow how awful our result was  Agreed. Cardiff was the disappointing one. On the prediction competition I went for a Labour gain. It’s a ward you’ve won before in a parliamentary seat that seems to be trending Labour. |
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Post by raskolnikov on Oct 4, 2019 9:53:43 GMT
The only one of those that I think was really disappointing for Labour, and indeed the only one in a key parliamentary constituency for Labour, was Cardiff. I expected that to be at least close. Cardiff was the only seat where we realistically had a chance, LibDems squeezing us in byelection conditions for no-hope seats isn't new or news. They always make a point of appealing to Labour voters to "lend" their support in those circumstances - and afterwards crow how awful our result was |
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Post by raskolnikov on Oct 4, 2019 9:57:12 GMT
Sorry. Meant to say that as long as Labour is committed to keeping the anachronistic first past the post system they can hardly complain when others ask them to lend them their vote. PR would eliminate the need to vote tactically.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 4, 2019 10:05:43 GMT
And quite a few of us in the party agree!
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 4, 2019 10:07:02 GMT
Bridge of Don turnout 34.2% (5,201 ballot papers verified).
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 4, 2019 10:13:49 GMT
Bridge of Don turnout 34.2% (5,201 ballot papers verified). So quota would be 1734 ... |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 4, 2019 10:27:57 GMT
ABERDEEN Bridge of Don
CROSS, Sarah (Conservative) 1,857
MENNIE, Jessica (SNP) 1,797
SKOCZYKLODA, Michal Franciszek (Liberal Democrat) 929
LAWRENCE, Graeme (Labour) 305
HARDIE, Sylvia (Green) 140
CLARKE, Philip (UKIP) 55
McLEAN, Simon Paul (Independent) 43
McKAY, Max (Red Party of Scotland) 9
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 4, 2019 10:31:37 GMT
ABERDEEN Bridge of Don CROSS, Sarah (Conservative) 1,857 MENNIE, Jessica (SNP) 1,797 SKOCZYKLODA, Michal Franciszek (Liberal Democrat) 929 LAWRENCE, Graeme (Labour) 305 HARDIE, Sylvia (Green) 140 CLARKE, Philip (UKIP) 55 McLEAN, Simon Paul (Independent) 43 McKAY, Max (Red Party of Scotland) 9 Don’t think many expected the Conservatives to top the poll there Con 36.2% SNP 35% LD 18.1% Lab 5.9% Green 2.7% Ukip 1.1% Ind 0.8% Red 0.2% |
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Post by John Chanin on Oct 4, 2019 10:47:48 GMT
Well that was decisive! No need to do any further counting.
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Oct 4, 2019 10:50:30 GMT
I make it CON 36.2% (+5.2) SNP 35.0% (+8.3) LDEM 18.1% (+4.7) LAB 5.9% (-5.2) GRN 2.7% (+2.7) UKIP 1.1% (+1.1) IND 0.8% (-16.5) RED 0.2% (+0.2), using the top candidate method. Probably unfair to compare the independent votes, so take that with some salt.
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cogload
Lib Dem
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Post by cogload on Oct 4, 2019 10:51:41 GMT
Excellent result for the Scottish Tories.
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 4, 2019 10:56:04 GMT
I make it CON 36.2% (+5.2) SNP 35.0% (+8.3) LDEM 18.1% (+4.7) LAB 5.9% (-5.2) GRN 2.7% (+2.7) UKIP 1.1% (+1.1) IND 0.8% (-16.5) RED 0.2% (+0.2), using the top candidate method. Probably unfair to compare the independent votes, so take that with some salt. That can't be right - there were more SNP 1st prefs than Conservative ones last time. |
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Post by justin124 on Oct 4, 2019 10:56:43 GMT
Excellent result for the Scottish Tories. Yes - was the Independent who polled strongly in 2017 a Tory by background? Possible that such votes shifted disproportionately to the Tories - were that the case. |
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 4, 2019 10:57:23 GMT
Excellent result for the Scottish Tories. Yes - was the former Independent who polled strongly in 2017 a Tory by background? Possible that such votes shifted disproportionately to the Tories - were that the case. No - ex Lib Dem. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
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Post by Chris from Brum on Oct 4, 2019 10:57:29 GMT
I make it CON 36.2% (+5.2) SNP 35.0% (+8.3) LDEM 18.1% (+4.7) LAB 5.9% (-5.2) GRN 2.7% (+2.7) UKIP 1.1% (+1.1) IND 0.8% (-16.5) RED 0.2% (+0.2), using the top candidate method. Probably unfair to compare the independent votes, so take that with some salt. That can't be right - there were more SNP 1st prefs than Conservative ones last time. I know - I did say that I used the top candidate method - but I'm unsure how to represent STV comparisons between a multi-member full election and a byelection with only one candidate per party. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 4, 2019 10:58:58 GMT
That can't be right - there were more SNP 1st prefs than Conservative ones last time. I know - I did say that I used the top candidate method - but I'm unsure how to represent STV comparisons between a multi-member full election and a byelection with only one candidate per party. You just add all the votes for one party to get the total vote for that party. Voters only get one 1st preference after all. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 4, 2019 10:59:31 GMT
Excellent result for the Scottish Tories. And a very poor one for the SNP. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Oct 4, 2019 11:01:53 GMT
Maybe those who're plotting to depose Jackson Carlaw will stop and think now.
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Post by justin124 on Oct 4, 2019 11:02:26 GMT
Excellent result for the Scottish Tories. And a very poor one for the SNP. In view of the Independent's background it is not such a good result for the LibDems either. |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 4, 2019 11:06:39 GMT
Maybe those who're plotting to depose Jackson Carlaw will stop and think now. That was a cracking result. |
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